As a general rule, it is almost always best to sleep on things before making important decisions or reacting to provocations. So why, at close to midnight on Tuesday, did Newcastle rush out a seemingly kneejerk response to Alexander Isak’s incendiary Instagram post claiming that, amid broken promises, his relationship with the club was over?
In a statement reflecting an appreciably tougher tone than at any time during this summer saga, Newcastle insisted no promises had been broken and that their intention is to keep Isak. The message was that the Sweden striker’s attempt to force a move to Liverpool had failed and he would need to end his one-man strike before being welcomed back to first-team training. The only problem is that while you can lead a horse to water it sometimes really is impossible to make them drink.
Even if – and right now it looks a pretty big if – Isak stops training alone and agrees to rejoin Newcastle’s first-team fold, how can Eddie Howe ever trust him again? Howe’s high-intensity, hard‑pressing approach is extremely demanding and, if Isak is anything less than fully engaged, he will prove detrimental to the team. Yes, Isak is supremely gifted, but the standard in the Premier League and Champions League is so high that even he is not capable of drifting through games and scoring goals out of nothing.
Howe has already acknowledged that Isak’s behaviour in skipping Newcastle’s pre-season tour of south-east Asia disrupted dressing‑room morale. Does he really want a player, however talented, polluting behind‑the‑scenes atmosphere with his grievances? Given Newcastle fans have taken to chanting about “one greedy bastard”, maintaining his personal security in the face of intense supporter anger may not be exactly straightforward, either.
Moreover, Isak knows that with every poor performance the price tag around his neck will drop. Given that Liverpool have shown no indication of pursuing alternative strikers, they could end up playing a slightly longer game and waiting until Newcastle are desperate to offload their No 14 in January. In reality it will be a major surprise if this saga endures that long. Indeed a careful reading of Newcastle’s statement conveys a hint that maybe it is part of a haggling manoeuvre as the club’s Saudi Arabian owners aim to extract the maximum possible price from their Anfield counterparts. As the former Newcastle and Liverpool manager Rafael Benítez used to say: “All football is a lie.”
In their statement on Tuesday night Newcastle said: “We have been clear that the conditions for a sale this summer have not transpired. We do not foresee these conditions being met.” The conditions in question refer to the need for Newcastle to sign two strikers to not merely replace Isak but also Callum Wilson, who is now at West Ham. There is a theory that Isak’s withering social media outburst reflected his frustration at the club’s unwillingness to pay Brentford’s £50m-£60m asking fee for Yoane Wissa to fill at least one of those slots. In an uncanny parallel, Wissa has also absented himself from first-team involvement at his club as he attempts to seal a longed‑for move to St James’ Park.
The ostensibly weird thing about the proposed Wissa deal is that the Saudis want £150m for Isak but have offered Brentford £40m for the DR Congo forward. Statistics can be deceptive but in this case they seem pretty compelling. Last season Wissa scored 19 goals in 35 Premier League appearances. Significantly, none were penalties. Isak, meanwhile, scored 23 times in 34 league appearances for a much stronger side. Four of his goals were also penalties.
There is a reasonable case for claiming that Isak’s all-round game is superior to Wissa’s, but Brentford watchers demur, making the point that Wissa is also a pretty useful attacking threat from wide on the left. The big difference is that Wissa is three years older than Isak. Perhaps more importantly, while three years remain on Isak’s contract with Newcastle, there is only one year left on Wissa’s with Brentford.
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Newcastle’s £40m offer for Wissa, made on Wednesday afternoon, was swiftly rejected by Brentford but the hope of the club’s Saudi owners will be that a deal will eventually be done. They also know that keeping Isak for another year could prove rather pointless given that he is clearly not committed to Howe’s cause and next summer’s price for a then 26-year-old with two years left on his contract is going to be nowhere near £150m.
Despite appearances to the contrary, the prospect of such a dwindling profit margin means it is still eminently possible to envisage Isak waking up as a Liverpool player on 2 September. Similarly, Jørgen Strand Larsen or Gonçalo Ramos could join Wissa on Tyneside by the time the transfer window has shut. And should that all transpire, what’s for sure is that Newcastle’s dressing room would be an infinitely healthier, happier place.