Headwater Exploration (TSX:HWX) just laid out its initial 2026 game plan, targeting 8% production per share growth while funding a CA$0.44 dividend and still keeping exit working capital in the black.
See our latest analysis for Headwater Exploration.
The guidance has landed against a strong backdrop, with the share price now at CA$9.49 after a 30 day share price return of 26.53% and a five year total shareholder return of 383.28%. This suggests that momentum and confidence are building rather than fading.
If this kind of disciplined growth story appeals to you, it could be a good moment to look beyond energy and discover fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.
Yet with the shares already up sharply and trading only slightly below analyst targets despite an implied discount to intrinsic value, the key question now is whether Headwater is still mispriced or if the market has already priced in its next leg of growth.
On a headline basis, Headwater Exploration trades at a 13.1x price to earnings ratio, which makes the stock look reasonably valued rather than obviously cheap.
The price to earnings multiple compares the current share price to the company’s earnings per share, so it effectively captures what investors are willing to pay for each dollar of profit. For an oil and gas producer like Headwater, this is a core yardstick because earnings can swing with commodity prices, capital spending, and operating efficiency.
Against that backdrop, the picture is mixed. Headwater screens as good value versus peers and the broader Canadian oil and gas industry, with its 13.1x multiple sitting below both the industry average 15.3x and the peer average 20.6x. However, that same 13.1x looks expensive when compared with the estimated fair price to earnings ratio of 10.1x, a level the market could migrate toward if sentiment or earnings expectations cool.
Explore the SWS fair ratio for Headwater Exploration
Result: Price-to-Earnings of 13.1x (ABOUT RIGHT)
However, investors should watch for weaker earnings trends and a cooldown in oil prices, which could compress multiples and challenge the current growth narrative.
Find out about the key risks to this Headwater Exploration narrative.
While the 13.1x earnings multiple suggests Headwater is roughly fairly priced, our DCF model indicates a very different picture. It suggests fair value near CA$19.93, which is around 52% above the current CA$9.49 price. Is the market underestimating the cash flow runway here?