Wondering if First Quantum Minerals is still good value after its big run, or if you are late to the party? This breakdown will help you decide whether the current price makes sense or is getting ahead of itself.
The stock has climbed 4.6% over the last week, 16.8% over the past month, and 76.0% year to date, with a 63.4% gain over the past year that has clearly caught the market’s attention.
Much of this move has been driven by shifting sentiment around copper prices and expectations for long term supply constraints, as investors increasingly treat copper exposed miners as leveraged plays on the energy transition. On top of that, headlines around First Quantum’s asset mix, project pipeline, and jurisdictional risks have kept the stock in the spotlight and added volatility to how investors are pricing its future cash flows.
Despite the rally, First Quantum Minerals currently scores 5 out of 6 on our valuation checks, suggesting it still screens as undervalued on most metrics. Next, we will dig into those different valuation approaches, before finishing with a more holistic way to think about what the stock is really worth.
Find out why First Quantum Minerals’s 63.4% return over the last year is lagging behind its peers.
The Discounted Cash Flow model estimates what a business is worth by projecting the cash it could generate in the future and then discounting those cash flows back to today in dollar terms. For First Quantum Minerals, the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model starts from last twelve month free cash flow of about $1.5 billion, and then applies analyst forecasts for the next few years before extrapolating longer term trends.
Analysts and model estimates see free cash flow rising to roughly $4.0 billion by 2029, with detailed projections stepping up from the low hundreds of millions in 2026 into the multi billion range later in the decade as new projects and higher copper volumes are factored in. Simply Wall St then extends these growth patterns into the following years to capture a full value for the business.
Bringing all of those cash flows back to today, the DCF fair value is estimated at $93.10 per share. That implies the shares trade at about a 64.2% discount to intrinsic value, which suggests material upside if these cash flow assumptions prove broadly correct.
Result: UNDERVALUED
Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests First Quantum Minerals is undervalued by 64.2%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 906 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows.
FM Discounted Cash Flow as at Dec 2025
Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for First Quantum Minerals.
For cyclical and capital intensive businesses like miners, price to sales is often a more reliable yardstick than earnings based multiples, because profits can swing wildly with commodity prices while revenue tends to be more stable and reflective of underlying scale.
In general, faster expected growth and lower perceived risk justify a higher price to sales multiple, while slower growth or elevated risk warrant a discount, so there is no single “right” number that fits every company or cycle.
First Quantum Minerals currently trades at about 3.98x sales, a shade below the Metals and Mining industry average of roughly 6.41x and slightly under the 4.12x peer group average. This suggests the market is still assigning it a modest discount despite the strong share price performance.
Simply Wall St’s proprietary Fair Ratio framework estimates what a reasonable price to sales multiple should be for First Quantum, given its growth outlook, margins, industry, size and risk profile. This approach is more tailored than simple peer comparisons because it adjusts for company specific strengths and weaknesses.
On this basis, First Quantum’s Fair Ratio comes out at about 4.42x, which sits above the current 3.98x sales. This indicates the shares still screen as undervalued on a sales multiple basis.
Result: UNDERVALUED
TSX:FM PS Ratio as at Dec 2025
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Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, a simple way to connect your view of First Quantum Minerals with the numbers behind it. A Narrative is your story for the company, where you spell out how you think its revenue, earnings and margins will develop, and link that story directly to a financial forecast and then to a fair value estimate. On Simply Wall St’s Community page, used by millions of investors, Narratives are an easy to use tool that help you assess opportunities by constantly comparing your fair value view to the current share price. They update dynamically as new information such as news or earnings is released, so your investment thesis does not sit still while the world moves on. For example, one Narrative for First Quantum Minerals might assume strong copper demand and place fair value far above today’s price, while another builds in higher political and project risk and concludes that the stock is already fairly valued.
Do you think there’s more to the story for First Quantum Minerals? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!
TSX:FM Community Fair Values as at Dec 2025
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include FM.TO.
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