Argan (AGX) has pulled back sharply this week, slipping about 12% in a single session and over 20% in the past week, even though the shares remain significantly higher over the past three months.
See our latest analysis for Argan.
Even after this week’s slide, Argan’s 1 year total shareholder return of around 115% and enormous 3 year total shareholder return appear to signal strong underlying momentum. At the same time, the recent pullback suggests investors are reassessing short term risk after a powerful run.
If Argan’s surge has you rethinking your watchlist, it could be a smart moment to explore fast growing stocks with high insider ownership to research other fast moving opportunities with strong insider conviction.
With Argan still trading below analyst targets and implying a hefty intrinsic discount, investors now face a pivotal question: Is the stock still undervalued, or is the market already pricing in years of future growth?
With Argan closing around $313.70 versus a narrative fair value of roughly $295.75, the most followed view sees recent strength pushing into premium territory.
Record backlog and continued project wins across gas, renewables, water treatment, and recycling plants provide multi-year revenue visibility, indicating potential for increased operating leverage and higher gross margins as larger projects are executed successfully.
Read the complete narrative.
Curious how multi year double digit expansion, moderating margins, and a richer future earnings multiple still add up to upside in this framework? The growth math behind that conclusion is not what most investors would expect from a construction contractor. Want to see which long term revenue and profit assumptions quietly justify paying up from here? Explore the full narrative to unpack the projections that support this valuation view.
Result: Fair Value of $295.75 (OVERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.
However, the thesis leans heavily on large gas projects, so any delays, cancellations, or faster than expected decarbonization could quickly pressure earnings.
Find out about the key risks to this Argan narrative.
Our SWS DCF model suggests Argan is trading about 42.7% below its fair value of $547.36, a sharp contrast to the narrative view that sees the stock as slightly overvalued. If cash flows point one way and sentiment another, which signal do you trust?
Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.