If anyone in Pakistan was unaware of the serious challenges in Balochistan, the events this year should have left no one in doubt. The events I refer to are not just the increasing frequency and the high-profile nature of the terrorist incidents taking place in the province – although by themselves, these should be a cause of great concern. The fact that these incidents are occurring in the backdrop of a tectonic shift in the political landscape of Balochistan makes the situation far more urgent and complex.
If the problem were limited to a small group of people unhappy with the state and, with the support of hostile intelligence agencies, fighting a terrorist campaign, a pure security lens might be appropriate in dealing with this challenge. With the experience of our soldiers fighting this battle for the last two decades in both the western bordering provinces, one would have high confidence in the success of this strategy. We have seen that soldiers and officers both are willing to offer the highest sacrifice and embrace shahadat to protect the homeland.
In addition, the recent designation of BLA and the Majeed Brigade as foreign terrorist organisations by the US government is a welcome development. The improved ties and closer cooperation with Iran also make a successful security clampdown much more probable. However, these geostrategic developments, welcome as they are, only create a window of opportunity for dealing with the root causes of the problem.
If the overwhelming majority of the province is unhappy with how the state is treating them, then it’s a political issue and not just a security issue. Dealing with this situation by looking at it through a purely security lens is not going to result in a lasting solution. Many people sympathetic to Balochistan believe that accelerating development work will solve the problem. While economic development certainly has to be a part of a comprehensive solution, it is a necessary but insufficient condition for resolving the problem.
We have to look at Balochistan mostly through a rights-based lens, since that is seen as the heart of the problem. The solution is not what we will do for them. The solution is to allow them to do what they think is best for themselves. The Baloch are not different from the rest of Pakistan or the larger world. The Baloch mother wants her children to be healthy, educated, well-nourished and safe. The youth of Balochistan aspire for the same opportunities as their counterparts in Karachi, Lahore and Islamabad, if not those globally.
The Baloch want their votes to decide who will represent them in the assemblies and who will govern their province. They want their resources to be developed, first and foremost , for the benefit of the people of Balochistan. They want to be able to raise their voice without fearing for their safety.
Which of these is not a legitimate demand? Which of these rights has not been guaranteed by the constitution of Pakistan to all citizens? Which of these rights guaranteed by the constitution of Pakistan has actually been fully given to the citizens of Balochistan? If the answer to this question is that none of these fundamentally guaranteed rights are being provided at a satisfactory level, then how will this be resolved without making these changes? These changes need to be made not because foreign-sponsored terrorists are using these slogans, but because the constitution of Pakistan demands this of us.
Elections all over Pakistan have almost always been contentious. However, when the results were perceived to be particularly blatant in 2024, look at the reaction in the country to this development. The PML-N, which had held power multiple times over decades in Punjab, has seen its popularity plummet when seen to be taking power against the will of the people of Punjab. When one of the most popular political parties, with a three-time elected PM, cannot sell a contrived mandate to the public, how do we expect weak political leaders with very little roots amongst the people to be able to do that? Yet, we have done that repeatedly to the people of Balochistan.
The deterioration of the political situation in Balochistan started with the killing of Akbar Bugti in 2006. A politician who had always been a part of the democratic process and had been a representative of the federation was killed as if he were a terrorist. I remember a close aide of General Musharraf telling one of my brothers after the killing that they had ‘solved’ the problem of Balochistan forever by killing Bugti. This arrogance and belief in kinetic power a solution to the challenges in Balochistan is what has led to the situation as it stands today.
By controlling the politics of Balochistan, we have marginalised political leaders who are willing to operate within the framework of the constitution, like Akhtar Mengal and Dr Abdul Malik, amongst others. As the people of Balochistan saw the futility of their votes and their support of political leaders who were part of the constitutional democratic process, unable to obtain the rights they demand and deserve, the support of these politicians has declined. Politicians perceived as close to the state generally lack the trust of Balochistan’s people. Hence, there are hardly any political intermediaries left who are connected to the people and can act as a bridge between the people and the state. No amount of force can fill this gap, and without this the distrust between the state and citizens will grow, which is already at a dangerous level.
The first and most vital step, therefore, is allowing a political process which puts political power in the hands of the real representatives of the people of Balochistan. These real representatives must be empowered to exercise full authority within the limits of the constitution. An empowered local government tier must also be established. These freely and fairly elected representatives should then lead a reconciliation effort to bring all those willing to accept living within constitutional bounds back into the mainstream.
With that, the development process will also have to be given an impetus. The development strategy has to put the citizens at the centre of the development effort. When we put together a special regional development package in 2020 for the least developed districts of Balochistan, it was all built around the needs of the people of the area. Education, skills (particularly digital skills), healthcare, access to mobile data services, access to water and energy, agriculture and industry were at the heart of it. The objective for the economic component was to create one million quality jobs for the youth of that area. The development of an airport and port in Gwadar, along with the construction of motorways, is a positive step, but it does little to benefit the people of these most disadvantaged districts.
The time to act is now. Let’s seize the opportunity emerging from recent global and regional geostrategic developments. You can never be sure how long this window remains open.
The writer is a retired corporate CEO and former federal minister.