Following the US tariff announcement on the so-called ‘Liberation Day’, Singapore Prime Minister Lawrence Wong warned the nation to “brace ourselves for more shocks to come”. This has proved prescient. Global uncertainty has become the norm, and maintaining resilience while pressing ahead with reforms to promote long-term growth is essential for effective policymaking.
AMRO’s 2025 Annual Consultation Report on Singapore shows that Singapore has weathered external shocks well thus far. It also illustrates how strong policymaking, preparedness, and the ability to leverage structural advantages can reinforce resilience and support future competitiveness and growth potentials. The key takeaways from the report released today are:
1) Growth has been revised up significantly from October.
Singapore’s GDP is projected to grow by 4.1 percent in 2025 and 2.5 percent in 2026 – a sharp upward revision from our October projections of 2.6 and 1.7 respectively. The upgrade reflects solid performance in the first three quarters of 2025, supported by the global electronics upcycle, AI-related demand, and strong activity in financial services. However, the near-term outlook remains vulnerable to external risks, particularly US trade policy shifts and weaker global growth, even as the announced 100-percent tariff on pharmaceuticals has been delayed,
2) An adept mix of fiscal, monetary and trade policies will be needed to cushion near-term impacts from trade disruptions.
Fiscal support should be targeted to vulnerable businesses and households, while broad-based transfers should be phased out gradually. An easier monetary policy stance remains appropriate given the uncertain outlook and low inflation—projected at 0.9 in 2025 and 0.8 percent in 2026. However, sustained capital inflows, while contributing to lower domestic interest rates, could impose an upward pressure on the exchange rate and present challenges to monetary policy implementation. Meanwhile, strengthening international trade agreements and ensuring businesses fully utilize them will help unlock new export opportunities and diversify markets.
3) A whole-of-government approach is helping safeguard a stable and sustainable property market.
Close coordination across agencies has enabled the effective implementation of both demand- and supply- side measures to moderate property price increases. These include macroprudential and property market measures as well as efforts to increase housing supply. Maintaining tight macroprudential measures will help contain risks of property market overheating and rapid household debt accumulation amid lower interest rates induced by capital inflows.
4) Singapore must preserve its competitive edge amid aging and rising trade fragmentation.
Boosting workforce adaptability, fostering a dynamic business environment, accelerating the adoption of automation, and maintaining an agile regulatory framework will be key to maintain competitiveness. A multipronged approach, including fiscal and healthcare reforms, can help address structural challenges, particularly from demographic change.
5) Singapore is well placed to advance regional integration, lifting growth potential domestically and across ASEAN.
The Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone could serve as a blueprint for deeper intra-ASEAN integration, while ongoing regional initiatives on digital payments and financial market infrastructure connectivity are strengthening financial linkages. Singapore’s notable progress on climate adaptation and mitigation also positions it to play a leading role in regional climate governance and collaboration.
Conclusion
Singapore’s experience shows that resilience is not accidental. It is built through prudent policies, strategic foresight, and the agility to respond to emerging risks. As global uncertainties persist, the country’s continued commitment to sound macroeconomic management and structural reform will be vital to sustaining growth, enhancing competitiveness, and contributing to a more integrated and resilient ASEAN region.