“Confidence in Australia’s mining industry has soared in recent months, increasing by 23.2pts (+24.5%) to 118.2 in the six months to November 2025, up from only 95.0 in the six months to July 2025. In contrast, broader Business Confidence has softened, down by 1.7pts (-1.6%) to 101.0 for the same period.
“Earlier in 2025, the uncertainty created by the Trump Administration’s tariff policies sent confidence in the mining industry – Australia’s largest export industry – plummeting. Mining industry confidence bottomed mid-year in the six months to July 2025 at 101.0.
“However, in mid-year discussions began about Australia and the United States signing an agreement related to the supply of critical and rare earth minerals. China dominates the current market for critical minerals and rare earths but due to tensions with the United States Government, the Trump Administration began to look for other sources of supply.
“These discussions eventually led to Prime Minister Anthony Albanese travelling to the United States and signing a multi-billion critical and rare earths minerals development deal with US President Donald Trump on October 20 with a vow for both governments to invest at least $1 Billion USD in the industry with a view of creating investments worth at least $8.5 Billion USD – and over the six months from October 2025.
“A closer analysis of the mining industry shows smaller mining businesses – those with less than $5 million in annual revenue – have driven the increase in confidence. Confidence among the smaller miners has soared by 39.8pts (+43.5%) to 131.1 in the six months to November 2025, up from only 91.3 in the six months to June 2025. Confidence among larger miners has gone in the opposite direction – down by 10pts to 98.2 during the same period.
“The two questions driving this increase relate to the Australian economy’s performance. Confidence about the performance of the Australian economy over the next year has improved by a net +34.9% since mid-2025, and confidence about the economy over the next five years has improved by a net +38.4%. Combined, these two questions alone account for almost 15pts of the increase of 23.2pts – over 60% of the increase.
“However, a look back at the history of Business Confidence in the mining industry does show wild swings in both directions, part of a ‘boom bust’ cycle that many associate with the industry.
“Looking forward, confidence in the industry will continue to rely on a strong pipeline of investment to service export markets worldwide. The new deal between Australia and the United States is meant to lead to billions of dollars of investment in the industry over the next few months, but until this funding is secured and invested there will remain a degree of uncertainty about just how much investment will in the end be made in these new ventures.”