AS PUNJAB continues to use breaches to divert water from its overflowing rivers, Sindh may not be able to emulate this strategy due to its unique topography, with the minister concerned categorically ruling out this option.
Over the past week, authorities in Punjab have destroyed several embankments to save major cities from being inundated. Naturally, the Sindh government has been facing queries about whether a similar strategy will be deployed in the province.
The swollen eastern rivers of Ravi, Chenab, and Sutlej merge into the Indus River at Panjnad before entering Sindh, and the province faces a similar situation to the one it faced in September 2014.
The Indus River has already passed a medium and high flood through the Guddu and Sukkur barrages in July and August of this season.
Minister says Punjab’s strategy can’t be emulated downstream due to province’s peculiar topography
How much water will pass through Guddu now remains a guessing game, considering flow patterns at the barrage. The Trimmu barrage passed a peak of 550,965 cusecs on Sept 1, but the flows have yet to reach Guddu.
Officials remain unsure whether floodwaters from the Chenab would precede combined flows from the Ravi and Sutlej, which would accumulate at Panjnad before heading to Guddu.
With a discharge capacity of 865,000 cusecs against Trimmu’s 875,000, Panjnad is the second last destination before the tributaries merge into the mighty Indus.
Sindh Irrigation Minister Jam Khan Shoro, who is stationed at the Sukkur Barrage to monitor floods, told Dawn that breaches were not an option.
“There is no option of breach in our minds,” he said, adding that Sindh’s topography tells a different story when it comes to such decisions.
“Gradient in Sindh’s lands is lower than the Indus River,” he argued, while asking people not to worry about any possible breaches. “I tell those putting this query that we can’t breach a dyke. It’s not an option,” he assured.
Peculiar gradient
Explaining this phenomenon, Tando Jam Sindh Agriculture University (SAU) Vice Chancellor Prof Dr Altaf Siyal said there were variables in the soil gradient in Punjab and Sindh and breaching a dyke was a different story for each province.
“A breach can be made on either side of the Indus. If it occurs on the right bank, the water will head westward because those pockets have large depressions. In case of a breach on the left bank, it will impact the Nara canal of Sukkur Barrage first before heading downstream,” Dr Siyal said.
A breach around Khairpur Mirs and Naushahro Feroze would send water to the river from the Qazi Ahmed side on the left bank of the Indus.
According to him, any breach on the right bank upstream of Sukkur will send water down to Manchhar Lake via the Right Bank Outfall Drain (RBOD)/Main Nara Valley Drain (MNVD).
“Manchhar Lake then allows the authorities to redirect water to the Indus if the river flows remain on the lower side,” he said, alluding to the 2010 super floods.
In 2010, a massive breach 60km downstream of Guddu displaced millions after the Tori Bund developed a fissure, affecting seven districts on the right bank. The water eventually ended up in the lake.
In 2022, heavy rainfall in the Kirthar Range inundated parts of the right bank districts, including Qambar-Shahdadkot, Larkana, Dadu, and Jamshoro. These flows entered the Indus after Manchhar had to be breached the same month at two locations.
A high-powered judicial commission was formed to probe the causes of the 2010 flood breaches at Tori and Molchand-Surjani at Kot Almo in Thatta, downstream of Kotri Barrage, on Aug 27, 2010.
The report mentioned that around 1.47MAF water was released from Tori and 70pc of the 150km on Begari Sindh Feeder, an off-taking channel of Guddu Barrage on its right side was destroyed.
The chief engineer of the Guddu barrage and his team, along with the irrigation secretary, were held responsible for negligence.
Discharges in Punjab
Mr Jam and Irrigation Secretary Zarif Khero also shared information about discharges recorded in Punjab, especially at Trimmu, Panjnad, Head Sidhnai over Ravi (with 157,580 cusecs discharge at 4pm Wednesday) and Sulemanki over Sutlej (122,736 cusecs). Chenab, in fact, passed a peak of 1,077,951 cusecs in the last week of August, which Sindh is now waiting for.
“Let’s see which peak reaches Guddu first. My hunch is that the time lag between barrages has increased,” he said.
Sutlej and Ravi are passing their peaks, too, and the water will head for Guddu while Indus water from Taunsa will also reach the first barrage in Sindh, adding to these discharges. Panjnad’s downstream flow was 217,447 cusecs at 6pm on Wednesday. These are the flows released from the Tarbela Dam built on the Indus.
Even the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) mentioned that 1.3m cusecs of water would reach Guddu Barrage, which has a capacity of 1.2m cusecs.
The irrigation secretary said that losses between the two reaches of the barrages needed to be factored in as well.
He also drew a parallel between this year and 2014’s Chenab flows. “A discharge of 947,000 cusecs downstream Khanki [over Chenab] on Sept 7 eventually turned out to be a flow of 453,570 cusecs at Panjnad on Sept 16 and 475,000 cusecs [inclusive of Indus flows] at Guddu on Sept 19.
He, however, assured that the government was prepared to deal with any situation involving a flow of 900,000 cusecs, considered a super flood.
Published in Dawn, September 4th, 2025