Cocoa and powdered chocolate prices jumped by more than 16% in the EU in May 2025 compared to the previous year. Prices in the bloc of 27 countries have been gradually increasing for the last 12 months, with annual ‘cocoa inflation’ going from 6.3% to 16.2%, according to Eurostat.
One of the major reasons behind this is that there has been a surge in the prices of cocoa beans, the main ingredient in chocolate, over the past two years. This was coupled with increases in the cost of sugar and energy.
The EU is entirely reliant on cocoa imports and accounts for more than half of the imports worldwide. The majority of the crop that is exported to the EU is grown in West Africa, where the harvest was hit by bad weather in the most important cocoa-producing regions, such as Ghana and Ivory Coast.
“Cocoa prices have almost tripled compared to the level two years ago,” Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, told Euronews Business, adding that “prices raced to record levels last year and have seen volatile patterns of trading over the past few months”.
While prices have eased from peaks above $12,000 per tonne, they remain elevated in both the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) and the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) in London.
Concerns over the cocoa supply have eased a little from their peak in May 2025, to the beginning of July.
“Chocolate lovers will be relieved to hear that cocoa prices have fallen to an eight-month low in recent days and London futures today are a whopping 42% below where they were at the start of the year,” said Danni Hewson, head of financial analysis at AJ Bell.
London Cocoa Futures were around £5,310 ($7,236) per metric tonne on Monday, more than twice the price it was exactly two years ago.
She said that, “the fact that consumers have been willing to keep stumping up for chocolate even as prices surged has tempted growers to invest in the crop, and the supply outlook has been improving,” which explained the declining prices.
However, due to climate change-related risks, including diseases like black pod, which have been exacerbated, “some plantations have ageing treeor mays, and the trade uncertainty created by Donald Trump’s tariffs has only deepened that uncertainty which is expected to limit any downside when it comes to cocoa prices,” Danni added.
No easing of chocolate prices in Europe any time soon
As bakeries across the continent struggle to grapple with the price increase of this essential ingredient, cocoa prices in the EU and the UK are not expected to fall substantially any time soon, according to a recent report by UK-based strategic consultancy Foresight Transitions.
Global prices of cocoa beans are having a major impact on the continent’s cost of chocolate. The EU’s chocolate consumption is the highest in the world and the bloc is entirely reliant on cocoa imports, mainly from countries in West Africa, where the cocoa harvest is highly exposed to climate or biodiversity-related risks.
According to the report, escalating cocoa prices cost European jobs too, citing the world’s largest chocolate producer, Barry Callebaut, having laid off almost 20% of workers, a third of which are based in the EU, due to the rising cost of cocoa.
“The rise in the cost of cocoa, which is such a crucial ingredient, is causing a big headache for chocolate manufacturers, given that they are also having to cope with absorbing higher energy costs and wage growth,” said Streeter about the UK market. In May 2025, inflation was accompanied by a record jump in chocolate prices and the cost of chocolate was 17.7% higher than a year previously, according to ONS.
“The outlook for prices ahead remains volatile, given that unpredictable weather patterns affecting cocoa farmers, including droughts and extreme rainfall, is likely to continue longer-term,” Streeter said.