AppLovin (APP) surged to new all-time highs Monday, gaining 12% and adding roughly $14 billion to its market capitalization, as it officially joined the S & P 500 Index. The breakout through final resistance is a bullish technical development, acting as a positive catalyst and clearing the chart of overhead supply. Breakouts are most reliable when sustained for a few days. For APP, we would like to see the stock price hold above the prior resistance level of $525 into next week to reduce the risk of a buying climax. This would validate the breakout. With the stock at new all-time highs, there is no resistance to reference as an upside objective. Instead, we can assume the trajectory of the uptrend will maintain itself and assign a “measured move” projecting the first leg of an uptrend from a corrective low. This suggests APP has the potential to reach $663 over the long term. Momentum had already been strengthening ahead of today’s announcement. The weekly MACD registered a bullish crossover in early August following a constructive higher low, and the monthly MACD histogram continues to expand, pointing to sustained long-term strength. While the stochastic oscillator is overbought, as long as its reading remains above 80%, the bullish signals from MACD take precedence. Should APP hold onto its gains after today’s breakout, former resistance of $525 becomes a gauge of initial support on the chart. The news-driven gap also has the potential to frame support, for which we would reference today’s intraday low. It would be encouraging to see the stock hold above both levels in the near term. APP is a member of the technology sector, and like the sector, it has shown its ability to exhibit leadership on the upside and downside. The stock’s adjusted beta is 2.5, the highest among S & P 500 constituents, followed closely by Super Micro Computer (SMCI). 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Applovin is soaring. How to tell if the breakout is for real
