Europe’s car industry could return to producing 16.8 million cars a year – equal to its post-2008 crisis peak – if the EU maintains its 2035 clean cars target and strengthens industrial and demand policies, a new study finds. That would result in automotive value chain jobs being kept at today’s numbers, according to the report published today by green group T&E.
The report modelled the impact of maintaining the EU’s 2035 zero-emission goal and implementing new industrial policies to boost domestic EV production such as electrification targets for corporate fleets and support for made-in-EU cars and batteries. In that scenario, the automotive value chain’s contribution (Gross Value Added) to the European economy would increase by 11% by 2035 compared to today.
Batteries and charging
Job displacement in vehicle manufacturing could be offset by the creation of more than 100,000 new jobs in battery-making by 2030 and 120,000 in charging by 2035, the study finds. The EU could produce up to 900 GWh of batteries a year (currently 187 GWh) by 2030 if it stands by its zero-emission target and implements supportive industrial strategies. The economic output of the charging sector could increase almost fivefold to €79 billion by 2035.
But weakening the zero-emission goal – as EU lawmakers are under pressure to do – and failing to put in place comprehensive industrial policies could see the European automotive value chain’s contribution to the economy decline by €90 billion by 2035, the report finds. There could be a loss of up to 1 million jobs compared to today. Up to two-thirds of planned battery investments in the EU could also be lost while the charging industry would be deprived of €120 billion in prospective revenue over the next 10 years.
Julia Poliscanova, Senior Director for Vehicles & Emobility Supply Chains at T&E, said: “It’s a make or break moment for Europe’s automotive industry as the global competition to lead the production of electric cars, batteries and chargers is immense. Europe’s success hinges on the road that EU politicians take today. Keeping the 2035 zero-emissions goal alongside adopting strong industrial and demand policies is the EU’s best chance to return to greater car production, maintain job levels and increase the economic value of its auto industry.”
T&E said the EU needed to prioritise electric car industrial leadership across its climate and industrial policies if it’s to maintain the automotive sector’s economic contribution and job levels and to maximise new investment and jobs in the battery and charging sectors. That includes:
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Maintaining the 2030-2035 car CO2 targets in the upcoming regulatory review, flanked by EU-wide measures to support demand.
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Introducing production aid for EV batteries in both EU and national funding streams, alongside incentives to source EU-made components and materials.
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Implementing the EU Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Regulation and electricity market reforms and grids action plans to speed up charger roll-out and grid connections and permitting.
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Mainstreaming social conditionality for quality jobs, and strengthening technology and skills transfer provisions in foreign direct investment.
Three industry associations reviewed the report and support its high-level message on the economic and employment potential of Europe’s electric vehicle transition – which requires both stable targets and stronger industrial and demand policies – without endorsing all aspects of the report:
Chris Heron, Secretary General of E-Mobility Europe, said: “There are hundreds and thousands of new jobs still for Europe to seize in its electric vehicle transition, but only through political courage and decisiveness. The global race for electric car leadership is already underway, and we can’t let other regions get out of reach. Europe needs to keep the conviction of its 2035 target to guide investment into electric vehicles, batteries, materials, and charging. But it also needs a tangible step up in its industrial and demand policies, to prove to companies it really means business.”
Ilka von Dalwigk, Director General of RECHARGE, said: “This study echoes what industry leaders have long cautioned: Europe risks losing one of the most strategic sectors of the green transition. The EU’s questioning of the 2035 target and its lack of effective support schemes for battery production endangers one of the most important cleantech industries. This study confirms that if we move on these quickly, we can secure hundreds of gigawatt-hours of locally-made, clean batteries.”
Lucie Mattera, Secretary General of ChargeUp Europe, said: “The energy transition is a catalyst for Europe’s competitiveness – driving innovation, investment, and new opportunities. The charging infrastructure sector plays a key role in this transformation and is on track to create long-term value and a range of quality jobs across the continent. To fully realise this potential, stable and predictable regulatory conditions such as the 2035 target are essential.”
About T&E
T&E is Europe’s leading advocate for clean transport and energy. The non-profit organisation wants to change the way transport is powered, accelerating the transition through zero-emission mobility and energy systems that are affordable and have minimal impacts on our health, climate and environment.
About E-Mobility Europe
E-Mobility Europe is the voice for Europe’s collective electric vehicle ecosystem (formerly AVERE), with a membership including national EV associations, vehicle manufacturer, supply chain, fleet owners, and technology providers. E-Mobility Europe advocates for Europe’s successful transition to electric vehicles, in a way that benefits both the region’s people and its industries.
About RECHARGE
RECHARGE is the European industry association for advanced rechargeable and lithium batteries. Founded in 1998, it is our mission to promote advanced rechargeable batteries as a key technology that will contribute to a more empowered, sustainable and circular economy by enabling decarbonised electricity and mobility, and cutting-edge consumer products. RECHARGE’s unique membership covers all aspects of the advanced rechargeable battery value chain: From suppliers of primary and secondary raw materials, to battery and original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), to logistic partners and battery recyclers.
About ChargeUp Europe
ChargeUp Europe is the industry association for the electric vehicle (EV) charging infrastructure sector. Our association works to accelerate the switch to zero emission mobility and ensure that EV drivers can enjoy a seamless charging experience with access to high quality, readily available charging infrastructure across Europe. As of today, our member companies are active in all 27 EU Member States, the UK and EFTA.