On Monday 8 September, Prime Minister François Bayrou lost the confidence of Parliament and subsequently resigned. The next day, President Emmanuel Macron appointed Sébastien Lecornu, a close associate from the centre-right, as the new prime minister. Lecornu now faces the daunting task of forming a government and presenting a 2026 budget in a deeply fragmented parliament.
To avoid a vote of no confidence, he must secure tacit support from either the left or the far-right, a scenario unlikely unless the budget proposal undergoes significant revisions.
As a result, we anticipate protracted negotiations. If these talks succeed, it will likely be at the cost of a less stringent fiscal path, effectively slowing budgetary consolidation. However, there remains a strong possibility that Lecornu will fail to build a viable coalition, which would increase the probability of new parliamentary elections. In our view, the likelihood of Macron resigning is very low at this stage.