The Cleveland Cavaliers should be the favorites in the Eastern Conference. They had the East’s best record last season and the conference projects to be weaker with Tyrese Haliburton and Jayson Tatum set to miss all (or at least most) of the coming year.
The Cavs’ 64 wins in 2024-25 came with one of the league’s best offenses in recent memory. They scored 7.3 more points per 100 possessions than the league average, the third best differential of the last 15 seasons.
Biggest difference, points scored per 100 possessions vs. league average, since 2010-11
| Team | Season | OffRtg | Lg. avg. | Diff. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden State | 2015-16 | 113.5 | 105.6 | 7.9 |
| Boston | 2023-24 | 122.2 | 114.5 | 7.7 |
| Cleveland | 2024-25 | 121.0 | 113.7 | 7.3 |
| LA Clippers | 2014-15 | 111.6 | 104.7 | 6.8 |
| Miami | 2012-13 | 111.4 | 104.8 | 6.6 |
OffRtg = Points scored per 100 possessions
The Cavs were a very good defensive team last season, ranking eighth overall and even higher (sixth) in games against the league’s top 10 offenses. But it was their worst defensive season (1.9 fewer points allowed per 100 possessions than the league average) of the last four years.
So there’s room for improvement on that end of the floor. Also reasons for improvement…
1. Over the 29 seasons for which we have play-by-play data, 38% of teams that ranked in the top five on both ends of the floor (11/29) went on to reach the Finals. That’s a big jump from the 25% of teams that ranked in the top five on one end and 6-10 on the other (21/83).
2. The Cavs can’t count on being as good offensively as they were last season. Evan Mobley could certainly keep improving, but Cleveland had an effective field goal percentage of 57.81%, just a tick below the highest mark in NBA history (57.85%).
3. In the Eastern Conference semifinals, the Cavs’ great-but-not-elite defense couldn’t keep up with the Indiana Pacers, allowing more than 120 points per 100 possessions over their four losses.
The Cleveland defense had a lot of issues in that series. A look back can provide us with a look forward at how the Cavs can be a better defensive team this season.
1. Not on the same page
The very first possession of the conference semis may have portended the Cavs’ fate, even though the Pacers didn’t score.
Evan Mobley (who had switched a screen earlier in the possession) switched a Myles Turner handoff for Tyrese Haliburton, who had just come off a screen from Pascal Siakam. Jarrett Allen (who was guarding Siakam) switched onto the rolling Turner. But Max Strus continued to chase Haliburton, leaving Siakam wide open…
So on the very first possession of the series, the Cavs weren’t on the same page. They got away with it then, but there was more confusion in that first quarter…
- Two possessions later, they lost Siakam again, allowing a layup seven seconds after a make on the other end of the floor.
- A couple of minutes later, Siakam got another wide-open 3 on the same action as the first possession of the game. This time, he made it.
- A couple of minutes after that, Haliburton got an open 3 when the Cavs’ defense wasn’t matched up … after another made basket on the other end…
The percentage of the Pacers’ 3-point attempts that were wide open in the conference semis (58%) was lower than it was in the regular season (league-high 63%) and in the first round (64%). But it could certainly have been even lower if the Cavs were a little more alert and cleaner with their switching.
2. An inverted defense leads to problems inside and out
According to Second Spectrum tracking, Allen and Mobley switched 25% of ball-screens and handoffs in the Indiana series, up from 20% in the regular season and 18% in the first round vs. Miami. The Pacers’ ball and player movement can force more switches, because it’s tougher for trailing defenders (like Strus on the first possession above) to stay attached to their guy.
The Cavs also allowed more points per possession when their bigs switched in the conference semis than in the regular season or first round. One issue was that Allen really struggled to defend Haliburton…
Haliburton scored 29 points (on 12-for-20 shooting) against Allen in the series, more than twice as many points as he scored against any other Cleveland defender.
Switching also created mismatches inside, where the Pacers were able to take advantage, both in the post and on the glass…
In the regular season, Cleveland opponents scored 0.92 points per chance when Allen or Mobley switched a ball-screen or dribble-handoff. That rate was 1.16 points per chance in the conference semis.
3. One-on-one breakdowns
Allen wasn’t the only guy who struggled to keep ball-handlers in front of him. Both Haliburton and T.J. McConnell had success rejecting screens and beating their initial defenders off the dribble…
According to Second Spectrum, the Cavs allowed 13.3 blow-by drives per 100 possessions, the league’s fifth highest opponent rate in the regular season. That rate was higher (14.3 per 100) in the playoffs.
The Cavs were banged up in the conference semifinals, missing Darius Garland for Games 1-2 and also Mobley and De’Andre Hunter for Game 2. Though their starting backcourt is limited defensively, they’re still a very good defensive team overall and weren’t the only team that struggled to defend the Pacers in the playoffs.
With Strus (foot surgery) out to start the season, Hunter could get an audition as the primary perimeter defender. Lonzo Ball and Larry Nance Jr. should make them better defensively when Allen or Mobley is off the floor.
But the Indiana series also showed them that defensive improvement from within is both needed and possible. The film offers plenty of examples of things to clean up.
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John Schuhmann is a senior stats analyst for NBA.com. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on X.
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