By Christine Ji
Strong early demand for the new iPhone is fueling a rally in Apple’s stock, but some analysts are seeing mixed signals for the pricier models
Ship dates for the iPhone 17 are longer than they were for the iPhone 16.
Shares of Apple Inc. posted a choppy first-half performance in 2025, but the launch of the new iPhone 17 may have helped turn the its fortunes around as the new phones spark an upgrade cycle.
After falling as much as 30% earlier this year on the back of concerns around tariffs and the company’s artificial-intelligence business, Apple’s stock (AAPL) has rallied nearly 12% in the last month and rose 4.3% on Monday – making it one of the best-performing stocks in the Nasdaq Composite COMP on the day, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
Reaching a daily peak of $256.64, Apple shares also hit their highest intraday level since December 2024, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
The rally comes as iPhone 17 models have hit stores and as orders are beginning to ship. According to Bank of America analyst Wamsi Mohan, iPhone 17 ship dates are more extended than they were for last year’s iPhone 16, indicating that demand is outpacing Apple’s initial supply. In a Monday note, Mohan pointed out that ship dates for the iPhone 17 are the most extended in China, likely driven by a 15% government subsidy and regulatory delays for the iPhone Air.
The strong demand in China is a positive signal for Apple, as China is a “linchpin” to the iPhone 17 upgrade cycle, Wedbush analyst Dan Ives wrote on Sunday. The company has faced increased competition in the Chinese market from domestic players such as Huawei and Xiaomi (HK:1810), but Ives believes “the negative growth trends over the last few years will now rebound into positive growth” in fiscal 2026.
Ives’ new price target of $310, up from $270 previously, is the highest among analysts tracked by FactSet and implies 22% upside from current levels.
Additionally, Apple’s services business should see a long-term tailwind from the recent antitrust ruling which allows it to continue its revenue-sharing agreement with Alphabet Inc.’s (GOOGL) (GOOG) Google. Jensen Investment Management’s Allen Bond noted that robust iPhone demand is critical, as it grows the installed base that fuels the services division.
The iPhone 17 base model has received the warmest reception thus far. While some analysts had anticipated the new iPhone Air to drive increased interest with its new form factor, Jefferies analyst Edison Lee pointed out that the the thinner iPhone has the least-extended ship dates among the iPhone 17 models this year, which he perceived as a sign of weak demand.
Lee sees downside risk “as the product mix could be much worse than last year” if the strength in the 17 base model can’t offset weakness in the Air and Pro models.
However, ship times might not tell the whole story because they’re a factor of both supply and demand. “In general, a model with a differentiating form factor would likely have increased demand. Apple could have anticipated this and stocked sufficient inventory, which could explain the lower ship times,” Mohan wrote.
Also read: Here’s how Apple’s stock could evolve from AI laggard into a big winner
-Christine Ji
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09-22-25 1916ET
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