Investing.com — Morgan Stanley said second-quarter global PC shipments came in stronger than expected but warned that growth is likely to slow in the second half of the year due to tariff uncertainty and a potential pull-forward of demand.
IDC’s preliminary data showed PC shipments reached 66.6 million units in the June quarter, up 7% year over year and 6% above Morgan Stanley’s estimate.
“Seasonally this equates to 7% Q/Q growth, ~6 points above normal June quarter seasonality,” analysts wrote, citing factors such as “healthy commercial PC refresh demand, some degree of AI PC purchasing, and rush orders ahead of expected, and potentially soon to be implemented, Section 232 tariffs.”
While international shipments rose 9% year over year, U.S. shipments were said to have been flat, with Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) noting “a clear headwind from volatile tariff policy in the US.”
At the vendor level, Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) reportedly stood out. “AAPL shipped 6.2M Macs in C2Q25, up 20.5% Y/Y… implying Mac gained 110bps of market share,” the analysts said, adding this could drive around $900 million of upside to Apple’s quarterly Mac revenue forecast.
In contrast, Dell (NYSE:DELL) saw a 2% year-over-year decline in shipments and lost 130 basis points of market share. HPQ grew shipments modestly but also lost share.
Looking ahead, Morgan Stanley now expects a sequential decline in the third quarter. “September quarter notebook ODM builds are expected to fall 6% Y/Y,” with full-year PC shipments forecast to grow just 2%, down from a prior estimate of 4.2%.
“We now assume that 2H PC shipments are flattish (-0.1% Y/Y),” said Morgan Stanley. “Tariff implementation remains a key swing factor that is likely to impact both purchasing sentiment and pricing.”
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