How China’s Rare Earth Export Curbs Have Shifted the Investment Story at Energy Fuels (TSX:EFR)

  • Earlier this week, China formally restricted rare earth element exports and imposed sanctions on certain shipping companies, heightening global trade tensions and disrupting critical mineral flows.

  • Energy Fuels stands out with its U.S.-based rare earth assets and capabilities, drawing heightened attention as governments seek to strengthen domestic supply chains and reduce reliance on Chinese exports.

  • We’ll examine how Energy Fuels’ role as a U.S. rare earth supplier amid rising U.S.-China tensions could influence its investment outlook.

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To own shares of Energy Fuels, an investor must see value in its ambition to become a leading U.S.-based supplier of rare earth oxides and uranium as Western countries prioritize secure critical mineral supply chains. While China’s new export restrictions have driven short-term interest, the most immediate catalyst for the stock remains execution on rare earth production expansion at White Mesa. The biggest risk is still the company’s heavy reliance on third-party feedstock and uncertainty around advancing its own mining projects; this news does not immediately resolve supply chain challenges.

One recent announcement directly tied to this theme is Energy Fuels’ qualification of high-purity neodymium-praseodymium oxide for use in electric vehicle motors, achieved at its White Mesa Mill. As Western automakers and governments seek alternatives to Chinese materials, achieving this production milestone could support Energy Fuels’ push to gain offtake deals or policy support, both of which are central to unlocking further upside.

By contrast, investors should be aware that Energy Fuels’ rare earth business still faces supply bottlenecks of its own, with no guaranteed feedstock from its early-stage projects and…

Read the full narrative on Energy Fuels (it’s free!)

Energy Fuels’ narrative projects $553.4 million revenue and $237.8 million earnings by 2028. This requires 104.1% yearly revenue growth and a $330.9 million earnings increase from -$93.1 million.

Uncover how Energy Fuels’ forecasts yield a CA$22.35 fair value, a 24% downside to its current price.

TSX:EFR Community Fair Values as at Oct 2025

Eleven Simply Wall St Community members estimate Energy Fuels’ fair value anywhere from US$2.73 to US$146.07, showing a remarkable breadth of outlooks. Amid these wide-ranging opinions, the company’s success may hinge on resolving rare earth feedstock constraints in light of tighter global trade conditions, so consider all viewpoints before forming your own.

Explore 11 other fair value estimates on Energy Fuels – why the stock might be worth less than half the current price!

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes – extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include EFR.TO.

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