By Dow Jones Newswires staff
Below are the most important global events likely to affect FX and bond markets in the week starting Sept. 22.
Investors will hone in on U.S. jobs data, where any signs of weakness could reignite prospects of a series of interest-rate cuts in the months to come.
In Europe, eurozone preliminary inflation data for September are set to be released. In Asia, focus will center on China's September manufacturing activity, Japan's tankan survey of large manufacturers and central bank decisions in Australia and India.
Close attention will also be paid to the Oct. 1 deadline for Congress to approve U.S. government funding. Failure to agree on this would result in a government shutdown.
U.S.
Jobs data will be the center of attention in the coming week, most notably Friday's U.S. nonfarm payrolls figures for September.
Recent weak labor market figures led the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at its most recent meeting and many expect follow-up rate cuts in the coming months.
Cautious comments by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, followed by a string of stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data--including an unexpected sizeable upgrade to second-quarter gross domestic product--sparked some doubts about prospects of back-to-back rate cuts. This caused the dollar and Treasury yields to rise. U.S. money markets currently price an 86% chance of a 25 basis-point rate reduction at the Fed's next meeting in October and a decent chance of a follow-up reduction in December, LSEG data show.
Analysts at HSBC expect another "soft" set of nonfarm payrolls data, which they say would "rubber stamp" an October rate cut. Any revisions to back data will be scrutinized too after substantial downward revisions in recent months, they said in a note.
Nonfarm payrolls will be the highlight of the week but ahead of that investors will pay close attention to other labor market data, including JOLTS job openings figures for August on Tuesday, ADP private payrolls numbers for September on Wednesday and weekly jobless claims figures on Thursday.
Investors will also watch for any signals on the health of the U.S. consumer, especially after the recent upgraded U.S. GDP figures showed a strong contribution from consumer spending. The Conference Board's consumer survey for September is due Tuesday, followed by the latest ISM reports on manufacturing and services activity for September on Wednesday and Friday, respectively.
Eurozone
Focus will be on flash estimate September inflation figures, unemployment data, consumer surveys and final purchasing managers indices.
Spain will release flash estimate inflation data on Monday, followed by similar releases from France, Italy and Germany on Tuesday and the eurozone on Wednesday.
Investec forecasts a small rise in eurozone headline inflation but expects this won't trouble European Central Bank policymakers or change expectations that eurozone interest rates are likely to be kept on hold in the coming months.
"The ECB is currently in a much more comfortable position than the Fed or the Bank of England, having delivered precisely on-target inflation for three months in a row," Investec economist Sandra Horsfield said in a note.
Final September Spanish, Italian, French, German and eurozone PMI data are released on Wednesday, while final services PMIs follow on Friday.
Eurozone business consumer surveys for September are due on Monday, unemployment data for August on Thursday and producer prices data for August on Friday.
Germany will sell 5 billion euros ($5.83 billion) in the August 2035 Bund, while Spain and France will hold auctions on Thursday.
Finland will publish a quarterly borrowing review on Tuesday.
U.K.
Revised U.K. gross domestic product data for the second quarter will be released on Tuesday.
"For the final estimate, we expect growth to remain unchanged from its flash estimate [of 0.3% growth over the quarter], though the details of GDP components will be key," HSBC economists said in a note.
Final purchasing managers' data for September on manufacturing activity will be released Wednesday, followed by the equivalent survey on services activity on Friday.
The U.K. is due to auction index-linked government bonds, or gilts, maturing in 2035 on Wednesday, followed by an auction of conventional 2035 gilts on Thursday. These could attract more attention than usual after gilt auctions the previous week received lukewarm demand, sending long-dated yields higher amid concerns about the U.K.'s fragile fiscal situation.
Switzerland
Switzerland will release inflation data for September on Thursday. This comes after the Swiss National Bank left interest rates on hold at 0% at its recent meeting and left the door open to a possible reduction into negative territory if necessary.
Scandinavia
Norway will publish quarterly funding guidance on Monday, while Denmark will hold a bond auction on Wednesday.
Japan
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda is scheduled to deliver a speech in Osaka, where economists and investors will look for clues on the central bank's monetary policy trajectory. Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida and board member Asahi Noguchi will also be separately delivering comments.
The central bank's closely-watched quarterly tankan survey, due Wednesday, is expected to show sentiment among large manufacturers improving to +15 from +13 in the previous June survey, according to a poll of economists by data provider Quick.
A summary of opinions from the Bank of Japan's September policy board meeting is scheduled to be released Tuesday. Industrial production and retail sales figures for August will also be released on the same day.
The central bank will conduct outright purchases in four sectors of the Japanese Government Bond market on Monday, including tenors of more than five years to 10 years, bonds with maturities beyond 25 years, and inflation-indexed bonds.The move is expected to support the domestic government bond market.
The Ministry of Finance will hold two auctions-about 2.7 trillion yen of two-year notes Tuesday and roughly 2.6 trillion yen of 10-year bonds Thursday. The 10-year sale may draw stronger demand given higher yield potential.
China
Purchasing managers indexes due Tuesday will offer early signals on how the world's second largest economy performed in September.
Citi expects the CFLP manufacturing PMI to rise to 49.7, citing higher cement mill rates, crude steel output and asphalt utilization. ANZ also sees an uptick to 49.6 from 49.4 in August, driven by more workdays and seasonal strength in upstream sectors such as metals and chemicals.
ANZ expects the non-manufacturing PMI to edge down to 50.1, reflecting softer services demand.
UOB economists expect the RatingDog China manufacturing PMI-formerly known as the Caixin China PMI/S&P Global China PMI-to fall to 49.5-50.2 from August's reading of 50.5, with the services PMI expected to slip to 52.0 from 53.0.
Australia/New Zealand
The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to pause rate cuts at its two-day policy meeting ending Tuesday. Markets have scaled back expectations of further cuts lately with recent monthly inflation data showing headline inflation has returned to the top of the RBA's 2% to 3% target band.
Still, core inflation remains subdued, and the RBA will likely wait for third-quarter inflation data in late October before deciding on a potential rate cut in November. The growth backdrop looks supportive, with GDP recovering, inflation contained overall and the labor market still tight.
Thursday brings August household spending data, with consumption expected to strengthen further as lower rates spur demand, supporting GDP growth.
Regional Asian PMIs
A round of PMIs due Wednesday for South Korea, Taiwan, Japan and India will give insight into how manufacturers are navigating trade-policy uncertainty halfway through the third quarter.
Recent surveys show diverging trends across Asia as firms diversify supply chains. Export demand remains soft for many powerhouses, while strong domestic demand has offset some weakness in some parts of the region, like India.
Nomura analysts expect Asia's export growth to slow further, driven by lagging effects of U.S. tariffs and weaker Chinese durable goods demand. AI-related investment and traditional server demand provide some upside, while risks are skewed to the downside as the full impact of tariffs has yet to play out.
India
India's central bank meets Wednesday against a backdrop of trade uncertainty, including 50% U.S. tariffs on Indian goods and fresh levies on some pharmaceuticals, large trucks and home goods.
ANZ Research expects the Reserve Bank of India to keep rates on hold, despite the monetary policy committee facing a difficult choice. Citing recent strong growth prints and downside risks to inflation from recent GST cuts, ANZ expects the central bank to cut rates at a later date, amid risks of a slowdown in the second half of fiscal 2026.
South Korea
South Korea will release September trade data on Wednesday and inflation data on Thursday.
Exports from Asia's fourth largest economy likely rose in September. Citi forecasts South Korea's outbound shipments overseas rose 6.2% from a year earlier, following a revised 1.2% gain in August, economist Jin-Wook Kim said.
The anticipated pickup may have been largely led by more working days for September this year, Kim said, noting the country's Chuseok holiday being pushed back from September to October. Still, shipments of cars, steel, semiconductors and other goods, especially to the U.S., are worth being watched as President Trump's higher tariffs continue weighing on global trade.
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September 28, 2025 20:14 ET (00:14 GMT)
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