Africa’s continental free trade pact promises integration, but uneven reforms and external dependence risk keeping the vision out of reach.
In a nutshell
- AfCFTA aims to boost intra-African trade but faces slow implementation
- Heavy reliance on raw materials exports has held the continent back
- True integration will require political commitment
Amid global trade uncertainties, Namibia drew attention to Africa by sending its first shipment under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) in June. The 25,000-ton consignment of salt to Nigeria marked Namibia’s debut in the single continental market. Officials hailed AfCFTA as a catalyst for boosting intra-African trade and economic cooperation, which was the core purpose of the 2018 agreement.
Seven years after its adoption, 48 of the African Union’s 55 member states have ratified AfCFTA, and 19 have formally published their tariff schedules. These steps demonstrate a growing commitment to the vision of a single continental market and to positioning AfCFTA as the key instrument for achieving it.
Before AfCFTA was adopted, Africa already had regional trade arrangements aimed at harmonizing commerce and economic cooperation across the continent. AfCFTA builds on these earlier efforts, drawing from the experience of regional blocs such as the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), the East African Community (EAC) and the Southern African Development Community (SADC).
The SADC region also hosts Africa’s oldest customs union, the Southern African Customs Union (SACU), established to remove tariffs and trade barriers among its members, Botswana, Eswatini, Lesotho, Namibia and South Africa. If AfCFTA succeeds and operates effectively across the continent, regional trade mechanisms such as SACU will become redundant.
As African countries confront unprecedented volatility in global trade, AfCFTA is seen not only as a shield against external shocks – such as United States President Donald Trump’s unpredictable tariffs – but also as a vehicle for unlocking Africa’s full economic potential. Stronger trade and cooperation among African countries is widely regarded as essential for enabling the continent to secure more favorable terms in negotiations with external partners, including major powers like the U.S. and China. Had such integration been fully realized earlier, Africa’s abundant mineral resources, combined with deeper regional economic cooperation, might have insulated the continent from adverse policy decisions imposed from afar.
Since its adoption, AfCFTA has received mixed reviews across the continent, even as consensus remains about its potential benefits. Trade-disruptive shocks – including the Covid-19 pandemic, Russia’s ongoing war on Ukraine and more recently the punitive tariffs introduced by the Trump administration – have renewed attention on the need to remove barriers and accelerate full implementation of AfCFTA, as every delay represents a lost opportunity for African economies.
At the same time, wide disparities remain in the strength of national economies, the quality of infrastructure, levels of political stability, the predictability of legal frameworks and broader patterns of development across the continent. Such uneven conditions pose significant challenges to harmonizing trade within the AfCFTA framework.
This uneven landscape raises doubts about whether African economies are sufficiently prepared to engage meaningfully in AfCFTA and translate it into tangible gains.
The state of intra-Africa trade cooperation
When it comes to regional trade, cooperation within the African Union lags behind other regions of the world. Intra-African trade has fluctuated between 15 and 21 percent of the continent’s total global trade, with South Africa accounting for the largest share within the SADC. By contrast, the World Bank reports that intra-Asia trade surged to 60 percent of its total trade in 2025.
African countries continue to engage in commerce more robustly with external partners than with each other. This pattern has left African economies overly exposed to external shocks and reflects a missed opportunity to strengthen their capacity to reduce poverty and unemployment. Heavy reliance on manufactured goods from outside the continent remains a persistent challenge, while Africa continues to function primarily as a net exporter of raw materials.
Facts & figures
Overview of selected African economic and political communities
Sluggish implementation of AfCFTA
There are several factors behind the slow pace of AfCFTA’s implementation. While many countries have approved the protocols, they have yet to follow through by removing barriers that obstruct trade. In addition, structural challenges continue to stand in the way of deeper integration.
One of the most significant impediments is inadequate infrastructure to support the movement of goods across the continent. Limited railway networks and underinvestment in port facilities remain major obstacles. To address these gaps, some African countries have turned to China for the construction of ports, railways and roads – arrangements that, in many cases, have reinforced dependence on external trade partners rather than reducing it.
A further obstacle is the lack of political will among some African governments to commit to the degree of integration required to realize a common market under instruments like AfCFTA. Certain regimes have entrenched client trade relationships with external partners as a means of sustaining their own hegemony at home. Genuine free trade, however, demands that domestic frameworks be opened to regional peers for the sake of harmonization. Achieving this is especially difficult in a context where commitment to transparent and predictable rules of engagement – including the protection of intellectual property – remains uneven across the continent.
While AfCFTA is designed to build on the progress of regional trading arrangements, many countries are inclined to view the continental free market as an unwelcome exposure to a wider and less predictable trade arena. This perception raises concerns that stronger blocs such as the SACU or the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) could dominate and shape outcomes at the expense of smaller or less influential members.
Another source of anxiety is the potential loss of tariff revenue. For states with relatively weaker economies and fragile fiscal capacity, participation in AfCFTA is often seen as opening their markets to short-term vulnerabilities. This fear helps to explain persistent unease toward AfCFTA and reinforces a preference for smaller trade blocs – familiar structures whose functions and constraints are better understood by policymakers.
The reality of unpredictable global trade relations
The overreliance of African economies on external trade relationships has become starkly evident following the enactment of far-reaching tariffs imposed by the Trump administration.
Despite the difficulties in implementing AfCFTA, there is little doubt that sustaining growth will require African countries to dismantle internal trade barriers and strengthen continental cooperation as a buffer against global volatility. While AfCFTA cannot provide an immediate remedy to the uncertainties of the international trade environment, the current climate shows the urgency of renewed efforts to build a common African market.
More by African affairs expert Ralph Mathekga
As countries like Namibia take bold steps under AfCFTA, greater efforts are needed to encourage more members to adopt measures that will deliver lasting solutions to Africa’s persistent problem of weak intra-continental trade. Although intra-African trade has shown growth since AfCFTA’s adoption, it remains far too limited to shield the continent from the uncertainties of global trade dynamics. The current reset in international trade relations offers Africa an opportunity to chart a sustainable, long-term path. Otherwise, the continent risks becoming an arena for continued domination by powerful global actors.
Scenarios
Likely: Continued fragmentation and external dependence
African economies have become increasingly vulnerable amid the fluidities of global trade relations. While most countries have ratified AfCFTA and voiced support for its vision of a common continental market, the internal reforms required for effective participation are unlikely to materialize in the near term. Political reluctance, limited institutional capacity and uneven commitment to predictable trade rules will hinder progress.
As a result, African economies will continue to rely heavily on the export of raw materials, particularly mineral resources, while importing manufactured goods from abroad. This dependence will stifle the growth of domestic manufacturing and reinforce China’s dominant role as a supplier to African markets. Meanwhile, chronic underinvestment in infrastructure – from railways to ports – will persist, leaving countries reliant on foreign assistance for critical projects. These dynamics will cement Africa’s exposure to external shocks and limit the continent’s ability to leverage AfCFTA as a genuine tool of transformation.
Unlikely: Integration and industrial renewal
In a more ambitious though improbable scenario, Africa’s youthful and expanding labor force becomes the engine of economic renewal. Recognizing the risks of overdependence on external markets, governments across the continent invest in strengthening manufacturing capacity, improving education and equipping young people with artisanal and technical skills to meet the demands of industrial growth.
This wave of pragmatism would foster internal liberalization across jurisdictions, gradually dismantling barriers to trade. Sub-regional blocs – while important stepping-stones – would give way to the broader vision of AfCFTA, enabling the continent to move toward genuine integration based on shared values rather than divergent arrangements. Such a shift would not only expand Africa’s productive base but also allow the continent to negotiate with external partners from a position of greater strength and unity.
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