Investors can approximate the average market return by buying an index fund. While individual stocks can be big winners, plenty more fail to generate satisfactory returns. That downside risk was realized by PepsiCo, Inc. (NASDAQ:PEP) shareholders over the last year, as the share price declined 12%. That’s well below the market return of 16%. Zooming out, the stock is down 11% in the last three years. On the other hand, we note it’s up 8.8% in about a month.
So let’s have a look and see if the longer term performance of the company has been in line with the underlying business’ progress.
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There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
Unhappily, PepsiCo had to report a 20% decline in EPS over the last year. The share price fall of 12% isn’t as bad as the reduction in earnings per share. So the market may not be too worried about the EPS figure, at the moment — or it may have expected earnings to drop faster.
You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on PepsiCo’s earnings, revenue and cash flow.
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of PepsiCo, it has a TSR of -8.8% for the last 1 year. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
Investors in PepsiCo had a tough year, with a total loss of 8.8% (including dividends), against a market gain of about 16%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Longer term investors wouldn’t be so upset, since they would have made 5%, each year, over five years. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Even so, be aware that PepsiCo is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those is a bit concerning…