MARKET WRAPS
Watch For:
EU retail trade; trading updates from Repsol, Norwegian Air
Opening Call:
European stock futures were little changed early Monday. Asian stock benchmarks tracked Japanese stocks higher; the dollar and Treasury yields rose; and oil and gold futures advanced.
Equities:
Stock futures traded little changed at the start of the week. Investors are all but certain the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again this month. But policymakers are signaling the path ahead may be rockier than traders anticipate, and the U.S. government shutdown further darkens the trail.
The S&P 500 inched to its 31st record close of the year on Friday, extending a rally that has delivered rich returns for Wall Street while raising concerns about how long the gains can go on.
Yet, the worries haven’t slowed the records, or the rise in AI-related shares. AI bulls point to the fact that earnings at the market’s largest tech companies remain robust.
“I’ve heard every summer since 2022 that the tech trade is over,” said Nancy Tengler, chief investment officer at Laffer Tengler Investments. “It’s normal to see stretched valuations and periods of increased concentration when the economy is transforming.”
Forex:
The election of Sanae Takaichi as Japan’s ruling party leader has caused the yen to depreciate, but the currency is unlikely to weaken sharply beyond the 150 threshold against the dollar, said Sony Financial analyst Maki Ogawa.
“What’s important is how quickly Ms. Takaichi implements her campaign promises, and the yen’s fall is likely to be only a short-term reaction, ” she said.
Bonds:
Corporate bonds have been on a tear, with Wall Street seemingly less worried about highly rated businesses getting downgraded or defaulting on their debt than at any other time in the past quarter-century.
The prospect of falling rates is providing corporate bonds with an extra boost. As long as short-term rates have stayed above 4%, many investors have been content to limit any type of risk, putting their cash in money-market funds.
Now, with rates coming down, those investors are trying to lock in the relatively high returns on corporate bonds while they still have the chance, cognizant that yields could follow rates even lower.
Energy:
Oil futures rose early Monday after eight OPEC+ members led by Saudi Arabia said they would boost production by 137,000 barrels/day in November, the same as in October.
“The relatively modest increase came after reports last week suggested the possibility of a more aggressive reintroduction of supply,” NAB’s Taylor Nugent said. Speculation of a bigger supply increase and oil-demand concerns had caused Brent crude oil to fall nearly 8% over last week, the senior economist added.
Metals:
Gold’s rally shows no signs of slowing as global retail investment demand intensifies, said Heng Koon How at UOB Global Economics & Markets Research. Since its technical breakout above $3,500/oz, gold has powered higher over the past month.
Strong safe-haven flows are underpinning demand for gold-backed ETFs, futures and related investment products. All of the metal’s key long-term positive drivers, especially further USD weakness and strong allocation from central banks, remain firmly in place. That, plus the surge in retail interest, prompts UOB to lift its price forecasts further beyond $4,000/oz across 2026.
–
Copper rose in Asian trading. Tight supply continues to support prices, Huatai Securities said.
Huatai noted that production at the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia has been significantly affected by a recent accident. It expects supply and demand dynamics to shift in the fourth quarter, likely sustaining the bullish momentum.
TODAY’S TOP HEADLINES
How China Secretly Pays Iran for Oil and Avoids U.S. Sanctions
U.S. sanctions make it nearly impossible to pay Iran for its oil. China has figured out how to do it anyway, in an arrangement that has largely been secret.
The hidden funding conduit has deepened economic ties between the two U.S. rivals in defiance of Washington’s efforts to isolate Iran.
Bitcoin hits new high above $125,000 as investors seek safety
Bitcoin hit a new all-time high on Sunday, briefly topping the $125,000 level, as investors seek safe havens amid the uncertainty caused by the government shutdown.
Bitcoin BTCUSD, the world’s largest cryptocurrency, peaked around $125,264 early Sunday, according to CoinDesk data. Prices quickly retreated and at last check were around $123,700.
Government Shutdown Drags On With Little Pressure to Break Impasse
WASHINGTON-The federal government shutdown is dragging toward its second week in a partisan staring contest, lacking for now the political or practical consequences that would create enough pressure to break the impasse.
All signs point to another week of posturing and repeat Senate votes that fail to get the 60 votes needed to reopen the government. Congressional leaders in both parties insist that they have the upper hand and that the other side bears the blame for the shutdown.
Novo Nordisk Is Ready for Another Round of the Weight-Loss-Drug Wars
The weight-loss showdown between Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly is heating up again, and Novo doesn’t plan on losing this second round.
Nearly two years after the launch of Lilly’s injectable Zepbound, and four years after the launch of Novo’s injectable Wegovy, investor attention is shifting to weight-loss pills. They are expected to hit the market next year.
Trump Praises Putin’s Offer to Extend Nuclear Treaty
President Trump on Sunday praised a Kremlin proposal to continue the limits on long-range nuclear weapons for one more year, which would preserve a main element of the last major arms-control agreement between the U.S. and Russia.
“Sounds like a good idea to me,” Trump said Sunday when asked about the Russian offer.
Rio Tinto to Roll Out New Tech in Hunt For More Metals, More Cheaply
Rio Tinto has signed a five-year deal with Canada’s Ideon Technologies to roll out technology that harnesses subatomic particles created by supernova explosions to help find and map deposits rich in minerals faster, cheaper and more accurately.
Under the multimillion-dollar agreement, the world’s second-biggest miner by market value will initially adopt Ideon’s technology at six sites around the world, said Gary Agnew, Ideon’s co-founder and chief executive. That includes at a big U.S. copper mine and within its mammoth iron-ore business in Australia, Rio Tinto’s profit engine, he said.
OpenAI’s Hunger for Computing Power Has Sam Altman Dashing Around the Globe
OpenAI Chief Executive Sam Altman has embarked on a global fundraising and supply-chain campaign, seeking financing and manufacturing partners that can help meet the startup’s insatiable demand for computing capacity.
In a bid to secure long-term, low-cost supplies for OpenAI’s staggering, multitrillion-dollar infrastructure plan, Altman has been exploring financing alternatives with supply-chain partners, people familiar with his meetings said. Such discussions remain in the early stages, the people said.
Write to singaporeeditors@dowjones.com
Expected Major Events for Monday
05:45/SWI: Sep Unemployment
06:00/DEN: Aug Industrial production & new orders
06:30/HUN: Aug Retail Sales
07:00/SPN: Aug Industrial Production
07:00/ROM: Aug Retail trade
07:00/SVK: Aug Internal trade, incl Wholesale & Retail
08:00/UK: Sep UK monthly car registrations figures
08:30/UK: Sep S&P Global UK Construction PMI
09:00/CYP: Sep Registered Unemployed
09:00/LUX: Sep CPI
09:00/EU: Aug Retail trade
10:00/FRA: Aug OECD CPI
All times in GMT. Powered by Onclusive and Dow Jones.
Write to us at newsletters@dowjones.com
We offer an enhanced version of this briefing that is optimized for viewing on mobile devices and sent directly to your email inbox. If you would like to sign up, please go to https://newsplus.wsj.com/subscriptions.
This article is a text version of a Wall Street Journal newsletter published earlier today.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
October 06, 2025 00:15 ET (04:15 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2025 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.