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US shutdown prompts more data worries as policy clues are
sought
Clues as to the path of US interest rates will hopefully be
provided from updated inflation numbers and economic activity data,
but a prolonged government shutdown would mean a lack of key US
data releases, engendering more uncertainty in the markets and
heightened growth worries. US tariff impact will, however, be
monitored via industrial production numbers for the US as well as
trade numbers out of mainland China and the eurozone. In the UK,
labour market and GDP come under scrutiny.
At the time of writing, an ongoing federal government shutdown
is set to affect US data releases in the coming week, including
consumer and producer price inflation numbers, as well as retail
sales data. The markets are expecting consumer prices to have risen
0.3% after a 0.4% rise in August, but for core inflation to hold
steady at 0.3%. Producer prices are meanwhile anticipated to have
risen 0.3% after a surprise 0.1% drop in August. Weakening price
trends will add to the odds of a further FOMC rate cut, but the
case for lower rates will also likely hinge on the activity data.
Fed-compiled industrial production data could therefore prove the
US data highlight of the week, alongside New York and Philly Fed
surveys.
Trade and inflation data are meanwhile issued for mainland
China, as are industrial production and trade data for the
eurozone. The data will be scoured for clues as to the impact of US
tariffs, though to also see whether domestic factors such as
increased fiscal spending may be offsetting some of the dampening
impact of the levies.
GDP data for August and the latest official labour market data
will be digested by UK economy watchers keen to gauge fiscal
implications ahead of November’s Budget. Prior data showed the
economy flatlining in July and ongoing steep job losses, the latter
largely blamed on last year’s Budget.
Recent PMI survey data have also disappointed, likewise
signalling a stagnating economy and falling employment. More weak
data could tip the scales further toward rate cuts by the Bank of
England. The Bank held rates steady at 4.0% at its last meeting,
but two of the nine policymakers voted to cut rates due to growth
concerns.
S&P Global will also be publishing the Investment Manager
Index (IMI) survey, revealing how institutional US equity investor
sentiment trends have changed in October.
Last month’s survey showed heightened risk aversion amid
worries over valuations and the political environment.
If released, US inflation numbers will be watched for signs
of tariff levies being passed through to end consumers. So far, the
inflation numbers have not risen as much as many analysts had
feared, but headline inflation was up to 2.9% in August with core
at 3.1%, and it remains early days in terms of the degree to which
the import levied might be expected to impact high street
prices.
Key diary events
Monday 13 Oct
Americas
Canada Market Holiday
– Brazil Business Confidence (Oct)
EMEA
– Germany Current Account (Aug)
APAC
Japan, Thailand Market Holiday
– China (Mainland) Trade (Sep)
– India Inflation (Sep)
Tuesday 14 Oct
S&P Global Investment Manager Index* (Oct)
Americas
– Canada Building Permits (Aug)
EMEA
– UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Sep)
– Germany Inflation (Sep, final)
– UK Labour Market Report (Aug)
– France IEA Oil Market Report
– Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (Oct)
– Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment (Oct)
APAC
– Singapore GDP (Q3, adv)
– Australia NAB Business Confidence (Sep)
– Australia RBA Meeting Minutes (Oct)
– India WPI (Sep)
– China (Mainland) New Yuan Loans, M2, Loan Growth (Sep)
Wednesday 15 Oct
Americas
– Brazil Retail Sales (Aug)
– Canada Manufacturing Sales (Aug, final)
– US Inflation (Sep)
– US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Oct)
EMEA
– Germany Wholesale Prices (Sep)
– France Inflation (Sep, final)
– Spain Inflation (Sep, final)
– Eurozone Industrial Production (Aug)
APAC
– China (Mainland) Inflation (Sep)
– Japan Industrial Production (Aug, final)
– India Unemployment (Sep)
– India Trade (Sep)
Thursday 16 Oct
Americas
– Canada Housing Starts (Sep)
– US PPI (Sep)
– US Retail Sales (Sep)
– US Initial Jobless Claims
– US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Oct)
– US Business Inventories (Aug)
– US NAHB Housing Market Index (Oct)
EMEA
– UK monthly GDP, incl. Manufacturing, Services and Construction
Output (Aug)
– Italy Inflation (Sep, final)
– Eurozone Balance of Trade (Aug)
– Italy Balance of Trade (Aug)
APAC
– Japan Machinery Orders (Aug)
– Australia Employment Change (Sep)
Friday 17 Oct
Americas
– US Building Permits (Sep, prelim)
– US Housing Starts (Sep)
– US Industrial Production (Sep)
– US Capacity Utilization (Sep)
EMEA
– Eurozone Inflation (Sep, final)
APAC
– South Korea Export and Import Prices (Sep)
– South Korea Unemployment Rate (Sep)
– Singapore Non-Oil Domestic Exports (Sep)
– Malaysia Balance of Trade (Sep)
– Malaysia GDP (Q3, prelim)
* Access press releases of indices produced by S&P Global
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