Thinking about Exxon Mobil? If you are weighing your next move, you are not alone; the stock is on many investors’ watchlists lately. The past year offers a mixed bag: Exxon is up just 0.1% over twelve months, but a glance at the longer horizon shows a dazzling 339.4% jump over the past five years. Shorter time frames add more texture. The stock boasts a 7.5% gain year-to-date, edging higher by 2.8% in just the last week, and logging a modest 0.7% for the past month. That is a lot of numbers, but they point to a story of potential resilience and changing sentiment.
Recent headlines have buzzed around Exxon’s ambitious carbon capture plans, further progress in renewable energy investments, and regulatory updates in the energy sector. While these developments have not caused dramatic price swings, they have subtly influenced how the market values Exxon’s future positioning against both traditional oil peers and the new wave of energy transition stocks. For many investors, these signals have shifted perceptions of risk and growth in the sector.
At a glance, Exxon boasts a strong value score of 4 out of 6, suggesting it is undervalued in most of the key metrics analysts watch. Of course, there is more to the story than numbers alone. In this next section, I will break down the valuation checks in detail, and tease out an even deeper, better way to understand Exxon Mobil’s true value further down the road.
Why Exxon Mobil is lagging behind its peers
The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model estimates a company’s value by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting those projections back to today’s dollars. This approach helps investors understand what a business may truly be worth if they held every future dollar the business might generate.
For Exxon Mobil, the most recent twelve months’ Free Cash Flow stands at approximately $32.4 billion. Looking ahead, analyst estimates suggest steady growth, with projections climbing to $44.7 billion by 2029 and potentially higher through 2035, as extrapolated by Simply Wall St. Analysts supply the first five years of these forecasts, while the later years result from careful modeling based on historical performance and industry outlook.
Using these projections in the DCF model, Exxon Mobil’s intrinsic value is estimated at $288.47 per share. This is about 60% higher than its current market price, indicating that the stock appears undervalued on a cash-flow basis.
If these projections materialize, Exxon may present value that is difficult to overlook. For long-term investors, the DCF suggests a significant margin of safety compared to the current share price.
Result: UNDERVALUED
Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Exxon Mobil.
XOM Discounted Cash Flow as at Oct 2025
Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Exxon Mobil is undervalued by 60.0%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover more undervalued stocks.
The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is one of the most relied-on metrics for valuing profitable companies like Exxon Mobil. It puts the market price in context with actual earnings power. Since Exxon generates stable profits, the PE helps investors compare its evaluation against similar opportunities in the market.
Interpreting what a “fair” PE looks like involves more than just comparing numbers. Higher expected earnings growth or lower risks usually justify a higher PE, while greater uncertainty or industry challenges would suggest a discount. Other factors such as profit margins and company size also play a part, so direct comparison with peers has its limitations.
Right now, Exxon trades at a PE ratio of 15.9x. That is above the oil and gas industry average of 12.8x but below the peer group average of 22.0x. To bring all the relevant factors together, Simply Wall St calculates a “Fair Ratio,” which for Exxon stands at 21.7x. This proprietary metric is more insightful than standard peer or industry averages because it factors in the company’s specific growth outlook, profit margins, market cap, and inherent risks. With Exxon’s current PE falling well below its Fair Ratio, the company appears undervalued on this basis.
Result: UNDERVALUED
NYSE:XOM PE Ratio as at Oct 2025
PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.
Earlier, we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let’s introduce you to Narratives. A Narrative is your personal story, built around assumptions about a company’s future revenue, earnings, margins, and ultimately, what you think is a fair value. It connects the latest business outlook with real numbers.
Instead of relying solely on broad market averages or consensus figures, Narratives let you define your view of Exxon Mobil’s future. This links concrete forecasts to a valuation and gives you a clear rationale for your buy, hold, or sell decision. Available to everyone through Simply Wall St’s Community page, Narratives are an accessible tool for all investors, whether you are a beginner or an expert.
Narratives are also dynamic. When fresh news or earnings reports emerge, your fair value and rationale update automatically, keeping your investment thesis current. This makes it much easier to track your assumptions versus reality and adjust your strategy when it matters most.
For example, some users currently project a fair value for Exxon Mobil as high as $174 per share, while others see a more conservative estimate around $126 per share. Your Narrative instantly shows how your outlook compares, helping you make smarter, more informed decisions.
Do you think there’s more to the story for Exxon Mobil? Create your own Narrative to let the Community know!
NYSE:XOM Community Fair Values as at Oct 2025
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include XOM.
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