If you’re holding TKO Group Holdings stock or considering it for your portfolio, you may be facing a classic investor’s dilemma: whether to hold, buy more, or think about taking some chips off the table after that impressive run. Over the past year, TKO Group Holdings has risen by 63.6%, which is a notably strong performance compared to most stocks. Even after accounting for a recent 6.1% drop over the past month, the stock remains up 30.9% year-to-date. This signals plenty of interest and perhaps some changing perceptions about its future prospects.
What has driven these movements? Recent headlines have focused on the group’s ongoing integration of major sports and entertainment properties, along with strategic partnerships that have caught investor attention. Some of the momentum earlier in the year can be traced to enthusiasm around new media rights deals and expansion into international markets, highlighting TKO’s global ambitions. Not every news cycle has been a net positive, though. Recent concerns about regulatory uncertainties and higher-than-average volatility appear to have tempered sentiment and may explain the latest dip.
With all that activity in mind, let’s look at the numbers. Using the valuation score, a straightforward method that adds one point for each of six checks passed, TKO Group Holdings currently scores 0 out of 6. At first glance, that result may seem concerning, but the story is rarely so straightforward. Next, we’ll examine how different valuation approaches compare to TKO’s current price and explore a smarter way to understand what the market may be overlooking.
TKO Group Holdings scores just 0/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.
The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is a popular valuation method that forecasts a company’s future cash flows and discounts them back to today’s value in dollars. By doing this, investors can estimate what a business is intrinsically worth right now, based on its ability to generate cash in the future.
For TKO Group Holdings, the latest reported Free Cash Flow stands at $721.8 million. Analyst estimates project robust growth in the coming years, with free cash flow expected to reach $1.99 billion by 2029. Estimates for the next five years are based on analyst predictions, while projections beyond that use extrapolation. This methodology combines analysts’ near-term insights with longer-term industry assumptions to provide a balanced outlook.
The DCF model estimates TKO’s intrinsic value at $157.40 per share. Compared with the current market price, this implies the stock is trading at an 18.7% premium. In other words, it is 18.7% overvalued according to this approach.
Result: OVERVALUED
Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for TKO Group Holdings.
TKO Discounted Cash Flow as at Oct 2025
Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests TKO Group Holdings may be overvalued by 18.7%. Find undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.
For profitable companies like TKO Group Holdings, the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is a widely used and practical way to judge valuation. The PE ratio measures how much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of earnings, making it especially relevant for established companies with consistent profits.
What is considered a ‘fair’ PE ratio can vary depending on expectations for future growth and perceived risk. Generally, the faster a company’s earnings are likely to grow or the safer its profits, the higher the PE investors will be willing to pay. The opposite is true for companies facing uncertainty or low growth prospects.
At the moment, TKO Group Holdings trades at a PE ratio of 72.77x. That is noticeably higher than the Entertainment industry average of 27.32x and also above the company’s peer average of 61.11x. However, simply comparing to peers or the sector paints only part of the picture. This is where Simply Wall St’s “Fair Ratio” comes in, which is designed to provide a more tailored benchmark. By factoring in specifics like TKO’s earnings growth, profit margins, market cap, risk profile, and industry trends, the Fair Ratio helps define what a reasonable PE should be for the stock today.
The Fair Ratio for TKO Group Holdings is 36.13x. Compared to the company’s actual PE of 72.77x, the stock appears significantly overvalued on this metric, even after accounting for its growth potential and sector characteristics.
Result: OVERVALUED
NYSE:TKO PE Ratio as at Oct 2025
PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.
Earlier, we hinted that there’s an even smarter way to understand valuation, so let’s introduce you to Narratives. A Narrative is a simple but powerful tool that lets you connect your personal story and insights about a company directly to its financial forecast and fair value calculations, making your investment thesis more tangible and actionable.
With Narratives, you’re no longer just crunching numbers. You’re building a story about TKO Group Holdings, outlining your assumptions for future revenue, profit margins, and fair value, and seeing how these compare with the market. This feature is accessible to everyone on the Simply Wall St Community page, where millions of investors share and update their own perspectives.
Narratives help you decide when to buy, hold, or sell by instantly comparing your Fair Value estimate to the current stock price, making the decision-making process more grounded and flexible. As new developments, news, or earnings come in, Narratives update dynamically so your outlook stays current.
For example, some investors may see TKO Group Holdings’ fair value as high as $180 based on aggressive growth expectations, while others set it below $120 due to risk concerns. This showcases just how diverse and useful these perspectives can be.
Do you think there’s more to the story for TKO Group Holdings? Create your own Narrative to let the Community know!
NYSE:TKO Community Fair Values as at Oct 2025
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include TKO.
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