Inflation has jumped to 3.2% in the year to September, from 2.1% in June, as waning government subsidies feed through to higher household power bills.
Any lingering chance of a rate cut next Tuesday was squashed after the new Australian Bureau of Statistics figures also confirmed a troubling rise in underlying inflation.
The Reserve Bank’s preferred trimmed mean measure – which removes the impact of large, temporary price moves – climbed by 1% in the three months to September and far ahead of the RBA’s predicted rate of 0.6%.
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That left inflation on this trimmed mean measure at 3% in the year, against 2.7% in June.
Michele Bullock, the RBA’s governor, this week made it clear that a quarterly rise in underlying inflation of 0.9% would be a “material miss”, signalling the monetary policy board would not be prepared to deliver a fourth rate cut.
While Australians will feel the bite of higher electricity prices, what has been more concerning for the central bank is the unexpected and unwelcome lift in underlying inflation.
Bullock this week made it clear that the central bank is, for now, more worried about the prospect of resurgent inflation than a recent jump in unemployment.
Bullock said the labour market was not about to “fall off a cliff” and that the jobless measure was “still pretty low”.
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