Australia/New Zealand
The Reserve Bank of Australia will dominate the spotlight on Tuesday with a likely decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 3.60%, while signaling an extended period on the sidelines.
Third-quarter inflation came in well above expectations, effectively wiping out any near-term prospects for rate cuts. The RBA also faces surging house prices, which argue strongly against easing for now.
With core inflation back at the top of the RBA's target range, some economists are even speculating that the next move in rates will be upward--but not until 2027.
The RBA has only cut rates three times in total and raised them less than many of its global peers, so a shallow easing cycle was always likely.
In New Zealand, third-quarter employment data due Wednesday are expected to show the jobless rate remaining above 5.0%. Despite significant rate cuts over the past year, New Zealand's economy remains weak and employment growth has yet to recover.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has said much of its policy easing has yet to reach households, many of which have fixed mortgage rates. With spare capacity still high, the RBNZ is expected to continue lowering rates over the coming months.
Asia PMIs
Monday sees a slew of PMI prints for Asia that will provide fresh signals on how tariff policies have affected manufacturing activity and sentiment in the region.
The readings, capturing manufacturing trends in South Korea, Japan, Taiwan and other Asian economies, will likely show continued divergence across the region.
The prior round of purchasing managers surveys indicated an uptick in output at the end of the third quarter, but also weak spots in exports and subdued demand.
Markets will scrutinize October's data for signs of improving market conditions for Asia's manufacturers. Producers in export powerhouses like Japan and Taiwan have flagged deteriorating demand and sentiment toward the outlook for the months ahead has soured in some parts of the region.
Despite fears that Asia's exports growth will fade in the second half of the year, figures from recent months do not reflect that, ANZ's research team said, highlighting particularly strong demand for electronic goods.
Malaysia
Bank Negara Malaysia is scheduled to announce its November policy decision Thursday afternoon. Given stronger-than-expected third-quarter GDP growth, there is "little reason" for the central bank to cut its policy rate in the near term, Barclays said.
Looking ahead, GDP growth for 2026 is expected to remain firm at 4.5%, supported by new budget measures aimed at boosting private consumption and investment amid lingering external challenges and ongoing fiscal reforms, UOB economists Julia Goh and Loke Siew Ting said.
This steady growth outlook should allow Bank Negara to keep the policy rate unchanged at 2.75% throughout the year, they added.
Indonesia
Indonesia will release September's trade and October inflation data Monday.
Export growth likely rebounded due to favorable base effects and strong external demand, Barclays said. Looking ahead, Indonesia's trade ties with the U.S. could continue to weigh on the exports due to higher tariffs, while imports may benefit from reciprocal arrangements, UOB economists Enrico Tanuwidjaja and Vincentius Ming Shen said.
Citi expects October inflation at 2.81% from 2.65% in September, driven by higher food prices.
Core inflation likely eased to 2.06% from 2.19% amid moderate demand, ANZ said.
Bank Indonesia's pro-growth stance suggests the easing cycle isn't over, with ANZ expecting two additional 25-basis-point cuts, bringing the policy rate down to 4.25% by the first quarter of next year.
Indonesia's statistics bureau will release third-quarter GDP data Wednesday afternoon. Growth likely eased to 5.0% from 5.12% in the prior quarter, ANZ said. Indicators point to weaker consumer confidence, slower car sales, moderated loan growth, softer capital goods imports and budget disbursement delays, it said.
Net exports likely provided some support, while fourth-quarter stimulus measures worth 46 trillion rupiah, equivalent to 0.2% of GDP, should help boost private consumption, ANZ added.
South Korea
South Korea is due to release its October inflation data Tuesday. Headline inflation likely picked up marginally, according to a Wall Street Journal survey.
The median forecast from a WSJ poll of seven economists calls for a 2.2% on-year rise in the benchmark consumer-price index, following a 2.1% gain in September. On a monthly basis, the index likely edged up 0.1% after September's 0.5% increase.
Citigroup economist Jin-Wook Kim said inflationary pressure from higher agricultural products during the early-October Chuseok holiday may have eased somewhat, while Shinyoung Securities economist Cho Yong-gu said higher prices for industrial goods and utility likely kept overall inflation elevated.
Taiwan
Taiwan reports trade data on Friday, which will show if the island's run of exports growth continued at the start of the fourth quarter.
Frontloading of shipments to get ahead of U.S. tariffs, plus booming demand for the chips and electronics, have powered Taiwan's exports through the year, lifting the outlook for the broader economy.
Some economists have expected that momentum to correct somewhat in the second half of the year. DBS's economics team thinks exports growth likely slowed but stayed solid at about 30% on year as the delay in U.S. semiconductor tariffs encouraged frontloading and AI-related demand remained strong.
The trade data will be preceded by inflation figures for October that will likely show an uptick in price growth.
Economists at HSBC point out the pullback in September was down to tax cuts, and the timing of the Mid-Autumn festival. The holiday, which fell later this year, will likely push inflation higher in October. A temporary hike in household electricity fees likely also drove up inflation.
Philippines
Investors will focus on the Philippines' inflation and GDP data for signs of how policy easing and fiscal spending are filtering through the economy. Rice prices likely rose slightly in October, driving headline inflation higher, Barclays said.
Third-quarter GDP growth likely slowed sharply due to a significant decline in government spending, ING said, citing corruption scandals associated with flood-control projects.
Business sentiment also weakened, with tariff uncertainties adding further drag, ING added.
Thailand
Thailand will release its October inflation data during the week.
Consumer prices likely turned more negative, ANZ said, following government measures to cut retail diesel and gasoline prices and lower raw material costs amid favorable weather conditions.
While prices of some items may have risen, HSBC economists expect price pressures to remain soft, with consumer demand still cooling on the back of high household debt and subdued confidence.
Any references to days are in local times.
Write to Jessica Fleetham at jessica.fleetham@wsj.com and Jihye Lee at jihye.lee@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
November 02, 2025 19:14 ET (00:14 GMT)
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