MARKET WRAPS
Watch For:
Manufacturing PMI for eurozone, U.K., Germany, France, Italy; trading update from Ryanair
Opening Call:
European stock futures traded higher early Monday. Asian stock benchmarks were up; the dollar weakened; Treasury yields were unchanged; while oil futures and gold strengthened.
Equities:
Stock futures started the new month higher, after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting countries and their allies agreed to boost oil production next month but pause further production gains for the first three months of 2026.
Market participants would have looked to a U.S. jobs report for direction this week, but with the continuing government shutdown, the report is suspended for now. Economists and investment analysts anticipate that once more jobs data becomes available, it may reveal a more sobering picture of the labor market.
“If you enter a period where you’ve got net job losses, eventually it’s going to hit the economy and it’s going to hit equity markets,” said Luke Tilley, chief economist at Wilmington Trust.
Forex:
The U.S. dollar is likely to bottom in early 2026, as the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates further and there is a lack of clarity over who the next Federal Open Market Committee chair will be, HSBC Global Investment Research said.
The bank said that dollar bears will face fresh tests this week, with several Fed speakers and U.S. activity indicators on the radar. ISM purchasing managers index readings and the ADP national employment report due this week will likely play a bigger role in driving the dollar over the coming days, it added.
Bonds:
Europe’s three biggest economies are stuck in a cycle of weak growth, leading to widening budget deficits. France is the epicenter of this shift and remains mired in a budget and political crisis, while the U.K. is eyeing tax hikes to try to narrow the gap and avoid spooking markets. Famously frugal Germany and the Netherlands are taking on debt, albeit from lower levels.
Meanwhile, southern countries like Spain have emerged as a rare bright spot for European growth, with governments that 15 years ago faced insolvency like Greece running nearly balanced books.
“The fiscal homework was done in southern Europe in the aftermath of the sovereign debt crisis,” said Filippo Taddei, a senior economist at Goldman Sachs. “In each of these countries, the fiscal outlook is remarkably more cautious than in the case of France, or even the Netherlands and Germany.”
Energy:
Brent crude oil is expected to trade in a range of $60-$65 a barrel in 2026, MBSB Research analysts said. Oil supply is projected to rise by an additional 2.4 million barrels a day next year. Downside risks are expected to persist due to a rising supply surplus that demand might struggle to absorb fully.
Growth could also be modest on the demand side, they said. However, a few factors could help support oil prices above $60 a barrel despite the anticipated supply-demand imbalance. These include China’s efforts at oil stockpiling and potentially lower Russian supply due to recent U.S. sanctions.
Metals:
“Investors in China were disappointed with new legislation from the Ministry of Finance that scrapped a long-standing gold tax incentive,” ANZ Research analysts said in a report, citing reports of China’s Finance Ministry ending a tax incentive for sales of the precious metal effective Nov. 1.
Retail investors are no longer able to offset the value-added tax when selling gold bought from the Shanghai Gold Exchange, the analysts added. The regulatory move could have wide repercussions as China is one of the world’s biggest gold consumers.
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Copper fell, after disappointing economic data from China raised concerns about weaker demand, ANZ Research analysts said in a note. Fed Chair Powell’s comments about reining in expectations for a December rate cut also likely weighed on sentiment, they added.
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Iron ore weakened in Asian trading. Short-term positive factors on macroeconomic levels have largely been priced in, and focus is shifting back to fundamentals, Nanhua Futures analysts said.
Supply stays elevated and port inventories continue to build, they said. If the pressures persist, current valuations could face correction risks, the analysts added.
TODAY’S TOP HEADLINES
Europe’s Role Reversal: The Problem Economies Are Now Further North
The European debt crisis of the early 2010s created an image of a continent cleaved in two: The fiscally responsible core countries led by Germany versus the spendthrift southern periphery of Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain-disdainfully dubbed PIGS.
Nowadays, there has been a role reversal. Europe’s three biggest economies are stuck in a cycle of weak growth, leading to widening budget deficits. France is the epicenter of this shift and remains mired in a budget and political crisis, while the U.K. is eyeing tax hikes to try to narrow the gap and avoid spooking markets. Famously frugal Germany and the Netherlands are taking on debt, albeit from lower levels.
How the U.S. Economy Has Defied Doomsday Predictions on Tariffs
When President Trump announced sweeping tariffs in April, economists predicted surging inflation and raised the odds of a recession. Companies and consumers stockpiled to get ahead of price rises. Those worries now seem overblown.
Inflation, while too high, is lower than forecasts. And the economy continues to grow despite the steepest tariffs in almost a century.
The Latest Buzzy Tech Investment: Ukrainian Drones
Ukraine has pioneered the use of drones in battle. Now Western investors are trying to get a piece of the action.
Foreign investment in Ukrainian drone makers and other defense technology has risen this year, founders and investors say, driven by the prospect of the battle-tested technology winning a slice of rising military spending.
OPEC and Allies Agree to Boost Oil Production, Then Pause
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies agreed to boost oil production next month but signaled they would soon pause output increases.
Eight OPEC+ members led by Saudi Arabia said they would raise production by 137,000 barrels a day in December-the same output increase agreed on for November and October-the group said Sunday after an online meeting.
Why Pfizer Can Still Prevail in the Obesity Fight With Novo Nordisk
The gloves are off in the obesity-drug fight. But Novo Nordisk might be swinging so hard it risks losing its balance.
The maker of Ozempic has been losing ground to Eli Lilly and a crop of copycat GLP-1 makers such as Hims & Hers Health. Novo’s new chief executive, Mike Doustdar, deserves credit for shaking up a once-stodgy Danish pharma with a move fast and break things mindset. He inherited a company rapidly ceding share, and his response has been urgent: layoffs to free up cash for reinvestment, and a dealmaking spree that included the acquisition of Akero Therapeutics, a company with a liver-disease treatment, for up to $5.2 billion.
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Expected Major Events for Monday
01:01/IRL: Oct Ireland Manufacturing PMI
05:30/NED: Sep Retail turnover
06:00/NED: Oct Netherlands Manufacturing PMI
07:00/TUR: Oct Turkey Manufacturing PMI
07:00/TUR: Oct CPI
07:00/TUR: Oct PPI
07:30/SWI: Oct CPI
08:00/POL: Oct Poland Manufacturing PMI
08:15/SPN: Oct Spain Manufacturing PMI
08:30/CZE: Oct Czech Republic Manufacturing PMI
08:30/SWI: Oct procure.ch Purchasing Managers’ Index
08:45/ITA: Oct Italy Manufacturing PMI
08:50/FRA: Oct France Manufacturing PMI
08:55/GER: Oct Germany Manufacturing PMI
09:00/GRE: Oct Greece Manufacturing PMI
09:00/EU: Oct Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
09:30/UK: Oct S&P Global UK Manufacturing PMI
10:00/CYP: Sep Retail trade
16:59/AUT: Oct Unemployment figures
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
November 03, 2025 00:26 ET (05:26 GMT)
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