SOUTH Asia is more than a geographical region; it is an interlinked ecosystem where decision-makers, service providers and communities must collaborate through coordinated and inclusive planning to build resilience and safeguard lives.
As the global power axis pivots towards Asia, China’s role in South and Southwest Asia becomes central to advancing regional climate security and addressing shared environmental concerns. The urgency of this shift is underlined by the limited progress made under multilateral frameworks like the Conference of the Parties and the Paris Agreement. As COP30 convenes in Brazil this year and the Paris Agreement turns 10, millions remain vulnerable to rising climate threats with no immediate mechanisms to mitigate risks.
Climate change is multidimensional, the solutions multilateral, and the power dynamics multipolar. These three elements must align to secure a fair and sustainable future for all. This demands a strategic rethink and a policy reset prioritising ecological survival as the region’s foremost foreign policy challenge.
In this context, three countries — China, India, and Pakistan — and one issue — water — will shape the fate of the Third Pole countries.
China’s transformation since the 1980s from a closed agrarian society to a global powerhouse with advanced technology and robust human capital makes it the most influential player in the region. With a $19.23 trillion economy, China has lifted 800 million people out of poverty and made progress in other critical areas. As the uppermost riparian in the Himalaya-Karakoram-Hindukush (HKH) system, China commands a total reservoir capacity nearing 1tr cubic metres.
Political thinking must evolve to meet the existential threat of climate change.
India, with a population of 1.4 billion and an economy worth $4.37tr, has made significant progress since the 1990s. Although malnutrition remains a concern, it has lifted 171m people out of extreme poverty. As a mid-riparian country, India possesses many major reservoirs, with a water storage capacity of 170 days. It remains a critical player in regional water-sharing arrangements.
Pakistan, with 240m people, faces a shrinking resource base. The state has shown resilience during periods of sluggish economic growth and aims to transition to a middle-income country. However, mounting climate losses, unsustainable population growth, and rising inflation will make the task challenging. As a lower riparian, Pakistan relies on a single basin and one river with just 30 days of water storage capacity.
All three nations are nuclear powers, possess strong militaries, and are entangled in unresolved political disputes. Ironically, they choose to ignore a common threat — climate change — that is far more dangerous than any military adversary. Rapidly warming temperatures are destabilising the cryosphere, especially in the Third Pole, where snow and glacial melt sustain over a billion lives. The consequences of this ecological breakdown will be more destructive than any damage inflicted by the most advanced war machinery.
The future ‘climate wars’ will be multi-domain battles involving melting glaciers, collapsing cryospheres, rising sea levels, devastating floods, forest fires, extreme heatwaves and violent storms. Ignoring these escalating threats, while signs of carbon feedback loops manifest across ecosystems, is reckless.
A cooperative riparian governance mechanism is crucial for stabilising the hydrological regime in the HKH region. Failure to do so will deepen existing vulnerabilities and could spark tensions over diminishing resources. To move forward will require focusing on immediate threats that necessitate working together despite differences in other areas. Water security must be seen as the cornerstone and hydro diplomacy placed at the heart of regional security to avert a flashpoint situation.
As the world’s second-largest economy with growing technological capabilities and a rising middle class, China has the capacity to shape the 21st-century geopolitical landscape and must now extend that leadership to climate security. As the uppermost riparian, China could initiate a regional COP, followed by rotational country hosting focusing on the cryosphere.
Historically, China has used stability to fuel prosperity. Hosting a regional COP will not only unite HKH countries to develop joint strategies for risk reduction and sustainable water governance but also demonstrate leadership grounded in shared ecological interests, not political divisions.
A collective regional strategy to manage the Third Pole can bring key stakeholders to the table and foster an ecological coalition centred on natural systems and human well-being. This would provide a much-needed platform for collaboration, risk reduction, and long-term ecological sustainability among HKH countries. Without it, the region faces the dual risk of environmental collapse and political conflict.
Leadership in climate diplomacy would also align with the region’s civilisational values. Chinese philosophy has long revered water as the source of life. In the Analects, Confucius draws parallels between the nature of water and the qualities of wise people — fluid, adaptable and ever-changing. Water’s strength lies in its flexibility; so too must nations adapt to shifting circumstance.
It is time to heed this civilisational wisdom. Just as rivers must flow to sustain life, so too must political thinking evolve to meet the existential threat of climate change. A new climate security axis must emerge, rooted in cooperation, ecological stewardship and a shared vision for human security.
South Asia is in peril and needs a regional water accord for peace. Climate change is a non-traditional threat that cannot be resolved through tactical warfare. Nukes will not be able to stop hydrometeorological disasters, nor will tanks and fighter jets be able to rebuild shattered lives or restore fractured societies.
Talks, however, could avert conditions from becoming flashpoints of conflict and lead to solutions that work for all. This is a time for peace, not war.
The writer is chief executive of the Civil Society Coalition for Climate Change.
aisha@csccc.org.pk
Published in Dawn, July 26th, 2025