Valvoline (VVV) shares have edged up slightly in the past day, despite experiencing a dip of 5% over the past month. Investors watching recent price movement may notice the stock is still down 26% from a year ago.
See our latest analysis for Valvoline.
Valvoline’s share price has trended lower over the past year, with short-term slips in recent weeks hinting at softer momentum. Its five-year total shareholder return remains solidly positive. That dip may reflect shifting expectations about growth or perceived risks, even as the company’s long-term profile stays resilient.
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The big question for investors now is this: with Valvoline’s recent pullback, are shares trading at an attractive discount, or is the market simply factoring in all expected growth ahead?
Valvoline’s last close at $31.56 stands notably below the narrative’s fair value of $44.12, highlighting a significant gap in expectations. The market’s caution contrasts with bold assumptions about strategic growth and recovery.
Aggressive store expansion through both company-owned and franchise models, along with ongoing acquisition of independent operators, is increasing Valvoline’s geographic reach and service capacity. This serves as a forward-looking catalyst for topline revenue growth and improved return on invested capital.
Read the complete narrative.
Curious what numbers are fueling this big valuation gap? There is more behind these analyst projections than just store growth. Uncover the surprising financial moves and profit expectations that drive this narrative’s price target.
Result: Fair Value of $44.12 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.
However, risks remain, including the rapid shift toward electric vehicles and increasing labor costs. These factors could threaten Valvoline’s long-term growth outlook.
Find out about the key risks to this Valvoline narrative.
Looking instead at the price-to-earnings ratio, Valvoline appears pricier than its peers. Its P/E sits at 14.4x compared to the peer average of just 9.5x. This is also higher than the fair ratio of 13.6x that the market could ultimately move toward. This gap reflects greater downside risk if sentiment changes. Could the market be overlooking something, or is this premium justified?
See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.