(Bloomberg) — Treasuries advanced across the curve after private-sector data signaled a cooling US labor market and bolstered bets on a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut.
The yield on the 10-year fell four basis points to 4.08% after employment figures from ADP Research signaled US companies shed 11,250 jobs per week on average in the four weeks ended Oct. 25. Money markets also added to bets on Fed rate cuts, pricing roughly a 70% chance of a reduction next month, according to swaps tied to policy-meeting dates. A gauge of the dollar was flat after five days of losses while gold gained.
Asian shares edged higher along with US equity-index futures. Advancers outnumbered decliners seven to one on Japan’s Topix Index. Technology firms lagged, with SoftBank Corp. tumbling as much as 10% after selling its entire stake in Nvidia Corp.
The federal government’s closure has elevated the importance of private data, as investors lacked key official indicators to gauge the strength of the American economy. The record US shutdown may end as soon as Wednesday after the Senate passed a temporary funding bill, buoying stocks as investors brace for a flood of delayed data once agencies reopen.
“The biggest near-term catalyst would be a reopening of the government which would buttress current-quarter GDP forecasts but also may release more liquidity into the market, which typically is supportive of stocks,” said the JPMorgan Market Intelligence team led by Andrew Tyler.
ADP figures suggested the labor market slowed in the second half of October, compared with earlier in the month. ADP’s most recent monthly report, released last week, showed private-sector payrolls increased 42,000 in October after declining in the prior two months.
The data come after an array of companies flagged plans to reduce headcount in recent weeks. A report from outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. showed employers announced the most job cuts for any October in more than two decades, spurring anxiety about the health of the labor market.
“The market will be guided by the general risk vibe and Fedspeak, but we suspect it will be unable to establish consistent directional impetus,” Westpac Banking Corp. strategists Damien McColough and Uma Choudhury wrote in a note.
The reopening of the government now depends on the House, which plans to return to Washington to consider the spending package. It would keep most of the government open through Jan. 30 and some agencies through Sept. 30.
If approved, the bill goes to President Donald Trump, who has already endorsed the legislation.
Back in 2013, which was the last shutdown to affect the jobs report, the government reopened on October 17, and the September jobs report was released five days later, noted Jim Reid at Deutsche Bank.
“So based on that timeline, we could get the September jobs report pretty quickly, not least because the original release was meant to be on Oct. 3, just a couple of days after the shutdown began,” he said. “Early next week is realistic.”
The resumption of economic data releases could make the case for increased wagers on Fed rate cuts. Most economists surveyed by Bloomberg suggest that Fed officials will lower borrowing costs by a quarter-point at their Dec. 9-Dec. 10 meeting. But the central bank’s path remained foggy after Chair Jerome Powell last month said a cut is not a certainty, a sentiment since shared by others at the Fed.
Corporate News:
Advanced Micro Devices Inc., Nvidia Corp.’s nearest rival in AI chips, predicted accelerating sales growth over the next five years, driven by strong demand for its data center products. FedEx Corp. expects profit this quarter to improve from a year ago, easing investor concerns about a lackluster holiday season and volatile trade policies. A group of investors led by Macquarie Group Ltd. is expected to acquire infrastructure services business Potters Industries from private equity firm TJC, in a deal valuing the company at approximately $1.1 billion. JD.com Inc. said orders surged nearly 60% during this year’s Singles’ Day event. South Korea’s POSCO Holdings Inc. will buy a 30% stake in Mineral Resources Ltd.’s lithium business in a deal worth $765 million. Sea Ltd.’s quarterly profit missed analysts’ estimates after the company boosted spending to battle competitors in Southeast Asia’s cutthroat e-commerce market. Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
S&P 500 futures were little changed as of 9:54 a.m. Tokyo time Hang Seng futures rose 0.4% Nikkei 225 futures (OSE) fell 0.5% Japan’s Topix rose 1% Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.2% Euro Stoxx 50 futures rose 0.2% Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed The euro was unchanged at $1.1582 The Japanese yen was little changed at 154.24 per dollar The offshore yuan was little changed at 7.1216 per dollar The Australian dollar was little changed at $0.6521 Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin rose 0.3% to $102,892.04 Ether was little changed at $3,419.62 Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined four basis points to 4.08% Japan’s 10-year yield was little changed at 1.685% Australia’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 4.36% Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude was little changed Spot gold rose 0.2% to $4,135.95 an ounce This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Toby Alder and Matthew Burgess.
©2025 Bloomberg L.P.