Key determinants in whether that forecast proves too ambitious or too conservative include the pace at which AV providers can scale their operations and the degree of competition. Our researchers say they will continue to monitor whether improving AI training technology and models, as well as simulation tools, will lead to an increased number of AV tech providers over time.
But there are early signs of AV scaling success. Data shows that consumers are gravitating toward AVs in select rideshare markets where they are available. The safety record of Waymo, a self-driving technology company, so far is also encouraging. The company’s studies show that its vehicles had far fewer airbag deployment crashes and injury-causing crashes as compared to human drivers.
How expensive will autonomous vehicles be?
As AVs increase their scale, their costs are coming down. Each successive generation of AVs is incorporating more purpose-built hardware. For example, one company was able to greatly decrease the number of installed cameras as it transitioned from its fifth-generation model to the sixth. Those kinds of improvements are helping to significantly reduce the average cost of an AV in the US. That said, AV costs in the US will likely remain above AV costs in China, which launched the technology earlier and where market economics are different.
Driving costs per mile are also on the decline. Enabled in part by lower hardware costs, depreciation costs per mile could drop from about 35 cents in 2025 to 15 cents in 2040 for a representative AV, our researchers estimate. Insurance costs are expected to decline from 50 cents a mile to about 23 cents over the same timeframe.
Other big savings could be realized as AV companies are able to rely on fewer remote operators, who don’t directly drive the vehicles but act as a safety net by providing virtual assistance in navigating complex or ambiguous situations. Our team predicts one remote operator could manage 35 cars by 2040, up from 10 in 2030 and only three at present.
Will drivers pick robotaxis over car ownership?
As AVs and robotaxis proliferate, will people stop buying cars? Delaney and his colleagues conclude that view is probably too negative, given that the per-mile cost of owning and operating a personal vehicle in the US is at most a little over $1, compared with more than $2 per mile for the average rideshare.
As AV costs continue to decline over the next decade or two, they believe users may choose to own an AV rather than rent one for a ride, particularly if they can sleep and engage in other activities while they’re traveling.
“Importantly, this aligns with the ambitions of several manufacturers”, they write in the report. “However, we think AV shipments in the US for the next 3-5 years will be mostly or entirely for commercial applications.”