Alstom (ENXTPA:ALO) shares have shown some movement recently, with the stock delivering a 4% gain in the past day and 13% in the past week. Investors may be watching these changes for early signs of shifting momentum or trends in the stock’s valuation.
See our latest analysis for Alstom.
Alstom’s recent rally stands out against a backdrop of more modest moves earlier this year, with the 1-year total shareholder return at just over 4%. While fresh momentum is evident in the last week, this follows a tougher multi-year stretch for shareholders.
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With Alstom’s shares rising and a recent uptick in revenue and net income, the question for investors is clear: is there real value left to uncover here, or has the market already priced in all the future growth?
The consensus narrative’s fair value estimate of €23.06 is just under Alstom’s latest close at €23.69, suggesting little upside in the eyes of analysts right now. The story behind that estimate combines future growth drivers, operational improvements, and optimism around Alstom’s project pipeline, balanced by caution regarding legacy challenges.
The company is conducting industrial restructuring to optimize its manufacturing setup, which aims to enhance operational efficiency and potentially improve net margins and earnings. Significant future opportunities lie in Alstom’s strong order pipeline, especially in Europe, the Middle East, and Asia Pacific, with €200 billion expected in orders over the next three years, which could enhance revenue.
Read the complete narrative.
What’s the quantitative backbone for this call on Alstom? Analysts have run the numbers on revenue trajectories, margin expansion, and some big earnings assumptions to frame their target. Wondering how bold their scenario is, and what key variable makes or breaks this price? Read the full narrative and uncover the forecast that drives this valuation.
Result: Fair Value of €23.06 (OVERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.
However, persistent supply chain issues and the weight of low-margin legacy contracts could quickly change the outlook for Alstom’s growth story.
Find out about the key risks to this Alstom narrative.
If you want to dig into the numbers yourself or have a different view on the future, you can quickly piece together your own story in just a few minutes using our tools. Do it your way.