Aug 4 – Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) in late July secured a green light to resume H20 AI-chip sales in China, but analysts see its local market share slipping. After U.S. export rules halted H20 shipments in April, Nvidia clinched assurances for a fully compliant China-only chip and a path to reintroduce its flagship H20 lineup. Yet Bernstein forecasts Nvidia’s share of China’s AI-chip market will fall to 54% in 2025, down from 66% a year earlier.
Local rivals such as Huawei and Cambricon built momentum while H20 access paused, winning more clients with homegrown designs. Beijing’s recent summons of Nvidia over security concerns hints at fresh regulatory hurdles, even as Washington frames chip-policy rollbacks as trade leverage. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang argued that easing controls preserves U.S. tech leadership, and some experts predict a sliding scale of restrictions ahead.
Performance is also being increased by their own chipmakers in China who are also building connections with AI developers within China and are straining legacy suppliers. Even though H20s would be brought back to Chinese data-centers, Nvidia has a stiffer battle to regain lost territory.
A combination of diplomatic negotiations and new export mechanisms are hoped by the company and its proponents to delay the further wearing away.
This article first appeared on GuruFocus.