IMEA Trade & Logistics Update: Air Freight Resilience, E-Commerce Momentum, and New Customs Shifts
As we move into August 2025, Indian subcontinent, Middle East, and Africa (IMEA) region continues to demonstrate robust trade and logistics performance, despite evolving regulatory landscapes and global economic challenges. Demand for air freight is rising due to seasonal exports, while capacity remains stable. E-commerce remains a major growth engine, especially in the UAE, where infrastructure and policy are aligning to establish Dubai as a global fulfillment hub.
However, shifting customs regulations — including Kenya’s new Certificate of Origin requirement, the United States’ 30% tariff on South African goods, and the UAE’s transition to a 12-digit customs tariff code structure beginning August 1 — highlight the increasing complexity of cross-border trade. These developments highlight the urgent need for agile, digitized, and compliant supply chains.
With mutual recognition agreements expanding among key global trade partners and modernization efforts accelerating throughout the region, IMEA is poised to adapt and flourish in an ever-changing trade landscape.
Customs Update
As global and regional customs landscapes continue to evolve, several high-impact regulatory updates are shaping trade flows across IMEA. Recent weeks have seen tariff escalations, tighter documentation controls, and a regional push toward harmonization of customs procedures.
This round-up highlights key developments from South Africa, Kenya, and the UAE, all of which carry critical implications for supply chain planning and compliance.
US Introduces 30% Tariff on South African Goods Amid Broader Trade Actions
Effective August 1, 2025, the United States will apply a 30% general tariff on all products imported from South Africa, irrespective of sector. This is in addition to:
- Section 232 duties:
- 50% on steel, aluminum, and now copper
- 25% on automotive goods and components
- Zero duties on critical minerals (excluded from tariff hikes)
Goods rerouted through third countries to avoid tariffs will remain subject to the original higher tariff, further tightening compliance expectations.
These actions introduce significant cost pressures for South African exporters and underline the importance of robust origin documentation, tariff classification accuracy, and customs risk mitigation strategies.
AEO Agreements Offer Relief as South Africa Strengthens Trade Facilitation
In parallel, the South African Revenue Service (SARS) has taken a major step to offset the impact of global trade disruptions through its Authorized Economic Operator (AEO) program. South Africa recently signed Mutual Recognition Arrangements (MRAs) with the United States, United Kingdom, and India — three of its largest trading partners — enabling:
- Faster customs clearance
- Fewer inspections
- Lower administrative burden for compliant, accredited traders
South Africa is now the first African country to conclude an MRA with the US under the Customs Trade Partnership Against Terrorism (CTPAT) framework. Together, the US, UK, and India account for nearly $40 billion in trade with South Africa, and the MRAs now extend mutual recognition coverage to 46% of South Africa’s export destinations by value.
SARS has also:
- Finalized cooperation agreements with Xiamen Customs, China
- Signed an MoU with Hong Kong Customs
- Held follow-up talks with Canada (CBSA) and initiated dialogue with Russia
These developments significantly boost trade facilitation and provide compliance-ready exporters a competitive advantage amid tightening global trade regimes. AEO accreditation now serves not only as a security credential but also as a strategic buffer against rising tariff and border control risks.
Kenya Enforces Mandatory Certificates of Origin for All Imports
The Kenya Revenue Authority (KRA) has introduced a major procedural update: as of July 1, 2025, all goods imported into Kenya must be accompanied by a Certificate of Origin (COO) — a requirement that previously applied only to preferential trade lanes.
To support smooth adoption, a grace period until September 1, 2025, has been granted for importers to align with the new policy.
Key compliance guidelines include:
- The COO must be issued by a competent authority (government body or officially designated institution) in the country of export.
- HS Codes listed on the COO must match COMESA tariff classifications — discrepancies may result in customs delays or financial penalties.
This shift highlights Kenya’s increasing focus on trade transparency, origin verification, and alignment with regional trade protocols. Importers and exporters should take immediate action to integrate COO compliance into their customs documentation processes to avoid clearance delays and cost impacts.
UAE to Adopt 12-Digit HS Codes Starting August 2025
Following Cabinet Resolution No. 119/2024, the UAE (including Dubai and Abu Dhabi Customs) will begin implementation of the 12-digit Integrated Customs Tariff from August 1, 2025, aligning with the updated GCC Harmonized System (HS 2022).
Highlights:
- A six-month transition period will allow use of both 8-digit and 12-digit codes in declarations
- The update applies to all GCC-destined shipments during this phase
- Tariff lines will expand from ~7,800 to over 13,400, enabling more granular product classification
Businesses must:
- Review and update ERP systems and customs declarations
- Reassess duty classifications and product mappings using the HSCodeMaster-v3.2, which categorizes codes as extensions, subcategories, or entirely new entries
Customs duties under the new structure remain unchanged (0%, 5%, 10%, 50%, or 100%), but the greater detail may affect duty rates for certain items.
Traders engaged in GCC cross-border trade are advised to start aligning internal systems and processes with the 12-digit structure ahead of the August rollout.
Air Update
Air cargo demand across Indian subcontinent, Middle East, and Africa (IMEA) is gaining momentum, driven by the peak perishable export season. Carrier confidence remains strong, with capacity deployment stable across most trade lanes. According to Accenture Cargo, July 2025, IMEA continues to outpace global growth, with Dubai World Central (DWC) ranking sixth globally in YoY capacity expansion at +15% for June–July.
Ad-hoc disruptions — such as regional airspace closures and the Pakistan – Lahore airport fire have added operational pressure but caused minimal service impact.
Mixed Signals Globally, but Regional Momentum Holds
According to the same report, Global tender activity softened in H1 2025 amid cautious market sentiment. However, stable inventories and global Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMI) above 50 continue to support air cargo demand. Tariff uncertainty and weaker consumer sentiment have led to a revised global air trade forecast — now at +2.3% for 2025, down from +3.5% earlier this year. Despite this, most commodities show positive YoY growth, with Automotive as the key exception.
IMEA Trade Industry Outlook Remains Robust
IMEA air trade continues to outperform the global average. India shows strong momentum (PMI near 60), while other regional markets hover around 51. Asia Pacific–to–Middle East & South Asia flows are projected to grow +7% in 2025, with long-term growth of 5% CAGR through 2029, led by High Tech and Machinery sectors.
With resilient demand, consistent capacity, and strong lane performance, the IMEA air freight market remains on a solid trajectory entering the second half of the year.
E-Commerce Update
Dubai South Accelerates E-Commerce Hub Ambitions Amid Continued Sector Growth
Dubai South is making significant strides toward positioning Dubai as a leading global e-commerce hub, in line with the city’s Economic Agenda “D33.” E-commerce in the UAE has seen robust growth, with a 21.3% CAGR between 2019–2024 and a projected 9.4% CAGR from 2024–2029 — underlining sustained sector momentum.
Government-led initiatives such as the Dubai E-Commerce Strategy aims to enhance the ease of doing business by reducing operational costs related to storage, customs, and VAT by up to 20%. These efforts are reinforcing Dubai’s attractiveness as a preferred logistics and fulfilment base for regional and global e-commerce players.
With digital consumer behaviour on the rise and regional infrastructure evolving, demand for agile, tech-enabled omni-channel fulfilment solutions is accelerating — making logistics resilience and last-mile flexibility more critical than ever.
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