By Garth Friesen
TikTok influencers are driving a worldwide matcha shortage. The viral demand is exposing vulnerable supply chains – with tariffs only adding to the risk.
Coffeehouses and major retailers such as Starbucks, Dunkin’, Whole Foods and Walmart are expected to deplete their matcha inventory later this year – if they haven’t already.
Investors in any consumer brand company must understand that demand spikes often lead to supply shortages.
Matcha prices are rising faster than rent – and that’s saying something. Led by a viral TikTok craze, where the #matcha tag has been viewed more than 3 billion times so far in 2025, demand is surging. A global shortage of authentic Japanese matcha is brewing and prices are soaring.
However, behind the surge in demand is a fragile supply chain, constrained by climate change, aging farms, labor shortages and limited acreage. Now, with prices rising as much as 235% in the past year, according to the International Tea Committee, Japanese matcha is in short supply. And the situation may get even worse.
So, how did the matcha supply chain become so disjointed in the first place? Like most commodities, the market is susceptible to fluctuations in both supply and demand. The matcha market was hit on both fronts.
This year’s crop was negatively impacted by excessive heat during the primary growing season in Kyoto, where most Japanese matcha is cultivated. There was a 20% drop in tencha production – the leaf that is shade-grown and ground to make matcha powder.
Social media is full of posts showing people hoarding matcha to either drink themselves or resell at a profit.
Meanwhile, demand skyrocketed. Led by wellness influencers promoting its wide-ranging health benefits, matcha has become an attractive alternative to coffee. Social media is full of posts showing people hoarding matcha to either drink themselves or resell at a profit. “We’ve heard directly from our partners that influencers from Thailand and Singapore are flying into Japan and buying out entire tea houses. They pack suitcases full of matcha and resell it through Amazon (AMZN) brokers, massively marking up prices,” says Matcha.com’s co-founder André Fasciola.
Once prices started rising and news spread of the developing scarcity, online retailers, Amazon resellers and consumers bought even more. The result led to local shops in Japan limiting their supply to matcha tourists as the available stock dwindled.
Given the ritualistic and labor-intensive production process, as well as the fact that it takes five years for farmers to switch crops from other teas to matcha, it is unlikely that Japan can increase its supply in the near term to ease prices.
The high prices have attracted the attention of farmers in other countries. China, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam and Thailand have increased their production of green tea powder, some of which is sold as matcha; however, standards and acceptance vary across these regions. While these substitutes may resemble matcha, they lack the strict shading, hand-harvesting, and stone grinding that define Japanese ceremonial-grade powder.
Unfortunately, many consumers are unaware of the differences between authentic matcha from Japan and imitation matcha-style products produced and sold in other countries. This creates a branding problem for traditional matcha sellers.
According to Fasciola, lower-grade sencha is often passed off as high-grade matcha by blending it with small amounts of authentic powder. “Real matcha is vibrant green, smells alive and tastes earthy,” he says. “Fake matcha looks dull, tastes fishy and feels chalky.”
Shades of vanilla
This type of opportunistic behavior is common when a low-volume, high-demand commodity or product experiences a sudden price increase. Alternatives hit the market, advertised as equivalent substitutes or sold as fakes. A nearly identical situation occurred in the vanilla bean market several years ago.
In 2017, Cyclone Enawo destroyed around 30% of Madagascar’s key vanilla-growing regions, which at the time accounted for 80% of global vanilla production. Vanilla prices soared 300%, and it took several years for other countries to fill the lost production gap. The shortage occurred just as many global consumer product companies such as Nestle (NSRGY) (CH:NESN) put pressure on demand by pledging to stop using artificial vanilla flavors in most food items and instead use only natural vanilla.
The business lessons learned from the vanilla crisis, which were reiterated during the pandemic and highlighted again in the current situation with matcha, are that companies without diversified supply chains are exposed to significant existential risk. Some companies may choose to diversify their matcha supply chains at the expense of quality. In this scenario, expect to see a premiumization model emerge to distinguish Japanese matcha from other forms of the product.
Premiumization means brands will lean into origin, quality and exclusivity to justify higher prices. Expect more labels emphasizing Uji-grown leaves, ceremonial-grade certification, and traceable sourcing. As lower-quality substitutes enter the market, Japanese matcha will be positioned less like a beverage and more like a luxury good.
Starbucks must now decide whether to pass through the cost of higher matcha (which will also be hit by the new 15% tariff on Japan).
The full impact of the matcha price spike has yet to be fully felt by consumers. Coffeehouses and major retailers such as Starbucks (SBUX), Dunkin’, Whole Foods and Walmart (WMT) are expected to deplete their matcha inventory later this year – if they haven’t already. Once that happens, consumer and wholesale pricing will likely have to rise, and anyone involved in the matcha supply chain, from the farmers in Japan to thousands of consumer-product companies, will have to make tough choices.
For example, Starbucks will have to decide whether to pass through the cost of higher matcha (which will also be hit by the new 15% tariff on Japan) and risk alienating customers who are already shelling out $6 for a grande matcha latte, or absorb the price increase themselves and accept lower margins. Alternatively, the company could decide to source lower-quality matcha, risking damage to consumer trust. These are serious business issues with serious consequences.
The matcha crisis is more than a price story. It’s a case study in how viral demand can expose vulnerable supply chains, with tariffs only adding to the risk. It happened to vanilla, avocados and saffron, and it will happen again elsewhere. Investors in any consumer brand company must understand that demand spikes often lead to supply shortages. More demand is not always good. It can be costly.
Garth Friesen is a retired hedge-fund manager with 25 years of experience trading stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities.
Also read: Trump’s newest tariffs are live. What it means, and which countries and sectors are next
More: Stock buybacks are surging. Here’s why it matters to your portfolio.
-Garth Friesen
This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
08-08-25 1221ET
Copyright (c) 2025 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.