The Fund Finance Association (FFA) hosted a global market update on 25 June, 2025 via a virtual seminar. The event’s panelists spanned from different parts of the globe ranging from political risk advisors, trade associations, asset managers, finance and fund formation lawyers, financial institutions and leading banks. Each of the panelists, experts in their respective fields, shared their observations and key market trends for their regions and practices. Below is a summary of the key takeaways from the update.
Global trade war and ongoing conflicts
US Trade Tariff
The general sentiment with respect to President Trump’s administration policies is that they are unpredictable and it would not be useful to try and anticipate his next move. The panelists, however, were of the view that there may be a clear agenda behind the global tariffs – which is to achieve three outcomes: i) revenue generation ii) extracting concessions from counterparties and iii) reshoring for national security reasons and creating jobs. In spite of this, the participants noted that trade momentum should pick up as certain countries will want to become allies of the US and benefit from US trade.
In view of the impending July 8 deadline, it is predicted that there are two options for the administration, rolling over the deadline or reverting to higher tariffs initially imposed on trade partners if President Trump doesn’t get the concessions he wants. The participants are expecting the latter of the two.
Israel and Iran
On the Israel and Iran conflict, panelists were of the view that the fundamental incentives for ceasefire do not make sense which is that Iran is on its knees militarily and Israel has the upper hand. Iran is unlikely to accept a diplomatic offer as it has rejected the previous two offers and may even potentially rebuild its nuclear programme which would result in Israel retaliating. The participants therefore do not think a ceasefire is likely for the next couple of weeks and if Israel hits back at Iran, there will be consequences for markets.
Russia and Ukraine
Moving on to the ongoing conflict of Russia and Ukraine, panelists were of the view that this war will not end any time soon given both sides are too evenly matched militarily and politically for one side to give up. In the context of short-term market movements, it is more useful to predict next steps by following patterned behaviour of President Putin in which he tends to offer small concessions before a big move in order to cushion the blow.
Focus areas of the US securities and trade market
According to the panelists, there is a big focus on the section 899 tax bill for the US securities and trade market, particularly, the lack of desire for it. The other area of strong focus is on the US approach to the bank capital rules and the market impact of the Basel III Endgame. Another key area the securities market is focused on, is increasing retail and brokerage access to qualified and non-qualified accounts, and back-office operations of private market products. There has also been a shift towards prototypes using blockchain technology on tokenized securities however with the backdrop of these new crypto taskforces, panelists noted that it is paramount to observe how these new groups will interact with the traditional securities market and what rules will apply to regulated entities.
Investment in the Insurance Sector
Panelists from the insurance industry noted that even during times of volatility, insurance portfolios (given they are investment grade), have stood the test of time. Insurance companies have internal investment teams, therefore in the context of recent events (i.e., trade tariffs and political uncertainty), the strategic allocation remains unchanged because they are set over long periods of time. In general, insurers may hold off on long term allocation and pivot into public asset opportunities during periods of volatility to explore some interim liquidity so the insurance market is typically unaffected by geo-political factors.
Participants further commented that fund financing is favoured by insurance companies noting that it is capital efficient, which works well for balance sheets from an insurance perspective and as such, there is always an appetite for it.
Investment and fundraising predictions in Asia
Asia fundraising
Panelists have observed that fund-raising from a global perspective has been stagnant, but fund sizes have been growing so a consequence of this is that raising funds for small players has become more difficult. In the Asian context, panelists noted that smaller or domestic GPs have struggled to fill their books or pull in anchor investors and, in Asia, fund raising is smaller in proportion to US or Europe counterparts, resulting in smaller deal sizes. One reason for this outlook is the impact of exchange rates. In reality, these Asian funds can raise more money, but they look flat on a dollar basis. The participants also noted they are seeing some allocations shifting to Asia as a response to the tariffs, with domestic trading in the RMB market remaining active, showing signs of renewed activity in China, and that the sectors that stand out for fundraising are credit and infrastructure.
In the Singapore context, another key trend is credit funds being raised in Japan due to the end of negative interest rates and deployment of funds in Japan. There has also been a real uptake in the Japan real estate space, by virtue of LPs wanting to diversify so Asia is set to benefit from this.
Participants are also seeing a surge in family offices providing financing because given their geo-political arbitrage strategy, they are able to write larger cheques and deploy funds.
Predictions on India
The fund finance industry in India to date did not exist because of the restrictions on onshore funds incurring debt, but GIFT City not being subject to these restrictions, will open the doors to opportunities and so, panelists predict an increase in activity in India.
Trends from a Lender’s Lens
With the backdrop of muted fund-raising activities, distributed-in-paid capital or DPI has become the focus for GPs and LPs. Some panelists are seeing several LPs testing the market with multiple large secondary portfolio transactions, but lenders are looking to continuation vehicles for LP capital returns. There are also signs of a pivot to the private credit and fund of funds space recently, with hybrid and private credit as well as ABL facilities being used as a tool for sponsors to secure liquidity.
A key trend across the lending market during this period of uncertainty is maintaining open communication with clients with one participant noting that open communication with GPs is important to understand how geo-political and macroeconomic factors affect their business and managing through periods of uncertainty. Another participant noted that in times of volatility, aside from portfolio monitoring and tracking of fund performance, it is important for lenders to listen to their clients to assess their needs with continued frequent dialogue, as well as coming up with creative solutions and adapting to keep servicing key clients.
Other key observations were the use of placement agents becoming more prevalent in the Singapore market in the middle or smaller sized funds. For the larger funds, the preference is for smaller and condensed lending groups with more experience with these types of financing so they can issue capital calls on demand. NAV and hybrid financings are also becoming increasingly popular with more mature players in the Hong Kong market, with the use of proceeds for distribution purposes. Australia is another market that is seeing healthy fund raising, with pension funds surpassing 8 million in assets under management.