Explore Texas Roadhouse’s Fair Values from the Community and select yours
Shareholders might have noticed that Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (NASDAQ:TXRH) filed its quarterly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.5% to US$173 in the past week. Revenues of US$1.5b were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at US$1.86, missing estimates by 2.8%. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company’s performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there’s been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we’ve aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Texas Roadhouse after the latest results.
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Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Texas Roadhouse from 24 analysts is for revenues of US$5.88b in 2025. If met, it would imply a modest 3.7% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be US$6.58, approximately in line with the last 12 months. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$5.86b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$6.69 in 2025. The consensus analysts don’t seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there’s been no major change to their estimates.
View our latest analysis for Texas Roadhouse
There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of US$197, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company’s valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Texas Roadhouse, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$227 and the most bearish at US$170 per share. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Texas Roadhouse is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It’s pretty clear that there is an expectation that Texas Roadhouse’s revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 7.6% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 17% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 10% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Texas Roadhouse is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.