The statement following today’s meeting, at which rates were held, is as succinct as the one after the December meeting, when rates fell by 25 basis points. The section confirming interest rates remain unchanged contains no additional justification, merely a reference to the previously outlined context. The changes in the statement admit that global commodity prices are falling—while a month ago the MPC mentioned ongoing market uncertainty.
At the domestic level, the Council expects economic activity in the fourth quarter of 2025 to be similar to that in the third quarter. In describing the labour market, changes indicate that the slowdown in wage growth occurred over the past year (previously no timeframe was given) and the adjective “further” was removed from the decline in employment, consistently with November data. The Council estimates that core inflation in December will be at a similar level to November.
Among the risk factors for future inflation, energy prices are no longer mentioned, which is understandable following the tariff decisions announced by the Energy Regulatory Office in December. Meanwhile, the macroeconomic situation abroad, including changes in commodity prices mentioned above, was added. However, we assume that with energy no longer a risk factor, the inflation path in the NBP’s March projection will be significantly lower than in November.
