Microsoft’s updates this month are something of a nightmare. Multiple fails, an emergency update and warnings on streaming sand saving files has created a minefield for affected users. But in the midst of this, there’s also a major decision to make.
This is all about Windows 10 and the 700 million (a number now increasing) users sticking with Windows 10 despite a 60-day warning that October’s security update will be their last. That’s unless and until they enroll in a 12-month security lifeline.
ForbesDo Not Use These Networks On Your Phone, TSA Warns—Here’s WhyBy Zak Doffman
Per Windows Latest, all those users will now “see full-screen ‘it’s time to upgrade your PC before the end of support’ banner more often. Windows Latest observed this behavior across dozens of our PCs and virtual machines using Windows 10.”
This begins “immediately” after you install August’s security update. “It’s quite obvious that you can’t ‘escape’ these full banners if you choose to keep running Windows 11.”
You can exit the nag but it’ll come back. And it will always include a helpful button that “instantly begins installing Windows 11.” There is a much smaller link to decline the upgrade and keep Windows 10, “which doesn’t really quit the campaign.”
If you do decline the upgrade, “Microsoft tries to convince you again with a slideshow of Windows 11’s new features.” You can then either download Windows 11 while using your PC or decline the upgrade offer.” That’s where the decision making kicks in.
ForbesFBI Warning—Do Not Call Any Of These Phone NumbersBy Zak Doffman
Again with August’s update, the free 12-month support offer has been issued to millions more Windows 10 users. You will see the enrollment button (if it’s made its way onto your PC) on the Windows 10 update screen. You can then select the option that works for you. If you use your account and OneDrive, you can do this for free.
Microsoft has confirmed that October’s security update will be your last unless you enroll in an extension option or upgrade to Windows 11. Don’t leave it too late and make sure that’s done well ahead of the deadline. It’s just not worth the risk.
Google opened a new chapter in the Pixel phone story – the first models with TSMC-made chipsets are up for pre-order. Three of the new models will start shipping next week, the foldable won’t be out until early October. The prices are the same as last year, which is great – even better, Amazon throws in gift cards with pre-orders.
The Google Pixel 10 is the first vanilla model to have a telephoto lens. However, it loses the large 1/1.31” sensor in the main and the high-resolution ultra-wide of the Pixel 9. The new model comes with a $100 Amazon Gift Card. You may be tempted to get the old one, but we’d hold off a week or two – the Pixel 9 is back at MSRP. It should go back to its discounted price after the 10 launches.
The Google Pixel 10 Pro gets a bigger $200 Gift Card. This leaves only $100 between the 10 and 10 Pro, once the gift cards are calculated into the price. The Pro model does have the large 1/1.31” main sensor and the high-resolution ultra-wide (48MP vs. 13MP), plus a superior telephoto – both have 5x zoom, but this one can go further with its 48MP sensor (vs. 10.5MP).
The Pro model also gets a superior LTPO OLED display with a higher resolution (1280p+ vs. 1080p+). The chipset is the same for both, Tensor G5, but the Pro has more RAM (16GB vs. 12GB). The battery is essentially the same (4,870mAh vs. 4,970mAh) with 30W wired charging – and new this generation is the 15W magnetic Qi 2 charging and support for Pixelsnap accessories.
The Google Pixel 10 Pro XL also gets a $200 gift card and is essentially an upsized version of the 10 Pro. It has a 6.8” LTPO display (1344p+) and a 5,200mAh battery with faster 45W wired and 25W Qi2 charging. Note that this year there is no 128GB option – the cheapest Pro XL is now the 256GB model.
Again, the Pixel 10, 10 Pro and 10 Pro XL are on pre-order now and will start shipping next week (nominally, on August 28, but the first units may arrive early).
Samsung’s flagship series has been around for a while now and they have competitive prices. The Galaxy S25 is smaller than the Pixel 10 with its 6.2” LTPO display and it’s cheaper too. It has the Snapdragon 8 Elite chip – we haven’t seen the Tensor G5 in action (not properly, anyway), but the Elite is sure to outperform it. The 10MP 3x telephoto camera loses out to the 48MP 5x camera of the Pixel 10 Pro, but it should be closer to the 10.5MP 5x camera of the vanilla Pixel.
As for battery endurance, the 4,000mAh cell inside the S25 puts it at a disadvantage, but Google’s Tensor has yet to prove it’s capable of running efficiently. Oh, and if you want magnetic charging and accessories, you will need the right case – that’s not built into the phone.
The Samsung Galaxy S25 Ultra is around the same price as the Pixel 10 Pro XL – though the $200 gift card tips the scales in favor of the Google phone. Which of the two has better cameras? That is the topic of a future shootout.
If you’re concerned more with weight rather than height and width, the Samsung Galaxy S25 Edge is 163g, a whopping 41g lighter than even the “small” Pixel 10. This is despite offering a large 6.7” 1440p+ LTPO display (vs. 6.3” 1080p+). On the downside, the 3,900mAh battery is 1,070mAh smaller than the Pixel 10 battery. Also, there’s no dedicated telephoto lens – for zooming in, you get what you get from the 200MP main.
Google also unveiled its next generation foldable, the Pixel 10 Pro Fold. It’s the first foldable in the US with an IP68 rating, offering better dust resistance compared to the IP48 competition. However, as noted above, this one won’t ship until October 9, so maybe it’s too early to pre-order.
If you need a horizontal foldable now, there’s the Samsung Galaxy Z Fold7. It’s cheaper than the Pixel and significantly thinner and lighter – 8.9mm/4.2mm and 215g, compared to 10.8mm/5.2mm and 258g for the Pixel 10 Pro Fold. You can even compare it to the Pixel 10 Pro XL – it’s 8.5mm thick and weighs 232g. The battery capacity remains a weak point and is only 4,400mAh, compared to 5,015mAh for the Pixel 10 Pro Fold.
Google also unveiled a new smartwatch this week, the Google Pixel Watch 4. It promises improved battery life and health tracking compared to its predecessor. And, impressively, it is the first smartwatch with Satellite SOS capabilities – you have to get the LTE model, though, which is $100. Still, you can’t put a price on peace of mind and this might replace a dedicated satellite messaging device.
Samsung’s new Galaxy Watch8 can’t call for help over satellite, but it is significantly thinner – 8.6mm vs. 12.3mm. The squircle design may not be to everyone’s taste, though. Note that the vanilla Watch8 comes with a free Galaxy SmartTag 2, which can be used to track your luggage.
Alternatively, you can get the Samsung Galaxy Watch8 Classic. This one has a unique hardware control, the rotating bezel, but the screen inside is on the small side – 1.34” for the 46mm model.
Another new accessory from this week is the Google Pixel Buds 2a. Like the Watch 4 and Pixel Fold, these will only be available from early October. They have Active Noise Cancellation (ANC) and spatial audio support, but no wireless charging.
If you’re going into the Samsung ecosystem instead of Google’s, you should consider the Galaxy Buds3 and Buds3 Pro instead.
Jerry Adler, who spent decades behind the scenes of storied Broadway productions before pivoting to acting in his 60s, has died aged 96.
Adler died on Saturday, according to a brief family announcement confirmed by the Riverside Memorial Chapel in New York. Adler “passed peacefully in his sleep”, Paradigm Talent Agency’s Sarah Shulman said on behalf of his family. No immediate cause was given.
Among Adler’s acting credits are The Sopranos, on which he played Tony Soprano adviser Hesh Rabkin across all six seasons, and The Good Wife, where he played law partner Howard Lyman. But before Adler had ever stepped in front of a film or television camera, he had 53 Broadway productions to his name – all behind the scenes, serving as a stage manager, producer or director.
He hailed from an entertainment family with deep roots in Jewish and Yiddish theater, as he told the Jewish Ledger in 2014. His father, Philip Adler, was a general manager for the famed Group Theatre and Broadway productions, and his cousin Stella Adler was a legendary acting teacher.
“I’m a creature of nepotism,” Adler told TheaterMania in 2015. “I got my first job when I was at Syracuse University and my father, the general manager of Gentlemen Prefer Blondes, called me [because] there was an opening for an assistant stage manager. I skipped school.”
After a long theater career, which included the original production of My Fair Lady and working with the likes of Marlene Dietrich, Julie Andrews and Richard Burton, among many others, Adler left Broadway during its 1980s slump. He moved to California, where he worked on television productions such as the soap opera Santa Barbara.
“I was really getting into the twilight of a mediocre career,” he told the New York Times in 1992.
But the retirement he was contemplating was staved off when Donna Isaacson, the casting director for The Public Eye and a longtime friend of one of Adler’s daughters, had a hunch about how to cast a hard-to-fill role, as the New York Times reported then. Adler had been on the other side of auditions, and, curious to experience how actors felt, agreed to try out. Director Howard Franklin, who auditioned dozens of actors for the role of a newspaper columnist in the Joe Pesci-starring film, had “chills” when Adler read for the part, the newspaper reported.
So began an acting career that had him working consistently in front of the camera for more than 30 years. An early role on the David Chase-written Northern Exposure paved the way for his time on a future Chase project, The Sopranos.
“When David was going to do the pilot for The Sopranos he called and asked me if I would do a cameo of Hesh. It was just supposed to be a one-shot,” he told Forward in 2015. “But when they picked up the show they liked the character, and I would come on every fourth week.”
Films included Woody Allen’s Manhattan Murder Mystery, but Adler was perhaps best known for his television work. Those credits included stints on Rescue Me, Mad About You, Transparent and guest spots on shows ranging from The West Wing to Broad City.
He even returned to Broadway, this time onstage, in Elaine May’s Taller Than a Dwarf in 2000. In 2015, he appeared in Larry David’s writing and acting stage debut, Fish in the Dark.
“I do it because I really enjoy it. I think retirement is a road to nowhere,” Adler told Forward, on the subject of the play. “I wouldn’t know what to do if I were retired. I guess if nobody calls anymore, that’s when I’ll be retired. Meanwhile this is great.”
Adler published a memoir, Too Funny for Words: Backstage Tales from Broadway, Television, and the Movies, last year. “I’m ready to go at a moment’s notice,” he told CT Insider then, when asked if he’d take more acting roles. In recent years, he and his wife, Joan Laxman, relocated from Connecticut back to his hometown of New York. Survivors include his four daughters, Shulman said.
For Adler, who once thought he was “too goofy-looking” to act, seeing himself on screen was odd, at least initially. And in multiple interviews with various outlets, he expressed how strange it was to be recognized by the public after spending so many years working behind the scenes. There was at least one advantage to being preserved on film, though, as he told the New York Times back in 1992.
Apple has “considered” releasing a bumper case for the upcoming iPhone 17 Air, according to Bloomberg‘s Mark Gurman.
Similar to the bumper case that Apple introduced for the iPhone 4 in 2010, Gurman said the iPhone 17 Air version of the case would cover the edges of the device, but not the back of it. Those bumper cases were made of rubber.
Given that the iPhone 17 Air is expected to have an ultra-thin design, customers who purchase the device might be reluctant to put it inside of a regular case, due to the added thickness. A bumper case would be a fitting compromise, as it would provide some level of protection against drops and scratches, without being overly thick.
Apple eventually ended up offering customers a free iPhone 4 bumper case, due to the infamous “antennagate” issue, which related to spotty cellular signal reception when the iPhone 4 was held in a way that covered the device’s antenna bands.
The Information‘s Wayne Ma previously reported that Apple also plans to release an iPhone 17 Air battery case, for extra battery life on the go.
Apple last released battery cases for the iPhone 11 lineup, followed by the since-discontinued MagSafe Battery Pack for iPhone 12 models and newer.
Apple is expected to unveil the iPhone 17 series and any related accessories in September.
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Ether (ETH) pushed into uncharted territory Sunday, clearing $4,900 on Coinbase at 5:40 p.m. UTC and surpassing its prior record of $4,867 set on Nov. 8, 2021.
The five-year ETH-USD price chart from TradingView shows a clean, multi-year breakout: ETH has finally vaulted the 2021 high after a long consolidation, leaving no historical overhead levels to lean on.
This is what traders call price discovery — the market is printing new highs with only psychology and order flow to guide it rather than prior chart resistance.
Five-year ETH-USD Chart for Coinbase From TradingView
The 5-day view fills in the tape action. After a fast run from the mid-$4,700s, ETH pushed through $4,900 and reached an intraday high around $4,946.90. At the time of the chart snapshot — 6:48 p.m. UTC — the last price was about $4,941.57. That sequence signals buyers absorbed supply near the old ceiling and then forced a fresh high, a classic breakout pattern.
Five-day ETH-USD Chart for Coinbase From TradingView
Analyst Miles Deutsher summed up the leadership shift as “BTC is exhausted, ETH isn’t.” In plain English, he is flagging relative momentum: bitcoin’s rallies have stalled near recent highs while ether just broke into price discovery.
When a market says one asset is “exhausted,” it usually means upside attempts are fading, follow-through is weak, and sellers keep meeting pushes higher; “isn’t” means the opposite — stronger follow-through, fresh highs, and active dip-buying. Traders often rotate toward the asset showing higher relative strength when the other leader tires.
Crypto Rover focused on supply on exchanges. “Exchange reserves” refers to coins held in wallets controlled by centralized trading venues.
When those balances trend down, fewer coins are immediately available to sell. If demand rises as liquid supply thins, price can accelerate because buyers must bid higher to coax coins off-exchange back into circulation. That is the mechanic behind his “supply shock” phrasing — not a guarantee of straight-up prices, but a setup where scarcity can magnify moves once momentum starts.
Michaël van de Poppe offered a risk check. He highlighted the unusually large weekly candle and cautioned that weekend breakouts often retrace when liquidity normalizes early in the week.
The idea is simple: weekend order books can be thinner, so moves extend more easily; when fuller participation returns on Monday, prices sometimes retest the breakout area to confirm it as support before trending again. In practice, that means a pullback toward the breakout zone would not, by itself, negate the larger bullish break you see on the 5-year chart.
In recent years, the idea of bringing medical device manufacturing back to the United States has gained momentum, driven by tariffs, supply chain disruptions during the COVID-19 pandemic, growing geopolitical tensions, and an increased focus on national security. Supporters argue that reshoring can strengthen domestic supply chains, create jobs, and ensure faster, more reliable access to critical medical technologies.
But the path to reshoring is far from straightforward. The U.S. medical device sector faces significant hurdles, starting with cost. Manufacturing overseas—especially in Asia—has long benefited from lower labor expenses and production costs. Replicating that cost structure domestically is challenging, particularly for high-volume, price-sensitive products.
Skilled labor shortages add another layer of complexity. Many specialized manufacturing roles have shifted abroad over the past two decades, leaving gaps in the domestic workforce. Recruiting, training, and retaining workers with expertise in precision manufacturing, cleanroom operations, and quality control is a major undertaking.
Infrastructure and supply chain dependencies also play a role. Even if assembly is brought back to the U.S., many raw materials, electronic components, and subassemblies are still sourced internationally. Creating a fully domestic supply chain requires significant investment and coordination across multiple industries.
Regulatory and quality requirements further complicate the transition. Medical device manufacturing is tightly regulated, and any shift in production location can trigger new validation processes, inspections, and compliance hurdles that slow timelines and increase costs.
Despite these challenges, momentum for reshoring continues, fueled by tariffs, federal incentives, state-level economic development programs, and rising interest from both public and private sectors. As companies weigh the trade-offs, the key question becomes not just whether to reshore, but how to do it in a way that balances cost, quality, and resilience—while keeping innovation at the forefront.
Medical Economics spoke with Rodney Schutt, president and CEO of Orion Innovations, about reshoring manufacturing to the United States. In this episode, Schutt discusses what you need to know before taking your medical device to market.
LOS ANGELES — LOS ANGELES (AP) — Netflix appears to have its first No. 1 box-office title in the streaming company’s 18-year history thanks to the sensation of “KPop Demon Hunters.”
Rival studios on Sunday estimated “KPop Demon Hunters” led all films over the weekend with $16-18 million in ticket sales. Distribution executives from three studios shared their estimates for the Netflix phenomenon on condition of anonymity because the streaming company has a policy of not reporting ticket sales.
Following a dominating few weeks as one of the most popular Netflix releases ever, the streamer put the film into 1,750 theaters for sing-along screenings Saturday and Sunday. Studios are able to accurately estimate ticket sales for all releases on Sunday morning, though the uncommon nature of the “KPop Demon Hunters” releases means a wider variance. Some estimates were as high as $20 million.
It amounted to a victory lap for “KPop Demon Hunters,” arguably the biggest hit of Hollywood’s summer, and an ironic success for Netflix, whose emphasis on streaming, not theatrical release, upended the movie industry. Another sore spot for Hollywood: The film was developed and produced by Sony Pictures, which sold it to Netflix.
Not all exhibitors went along. AMC, the largest theater chain in North America, declined to show the movie. But that didn’t stop Netflix from claiming the box-office title its more traditional competitors typically own.
David A. Gross, who runs the movie consulting firm FranchiseRe, called it “a completely unique two-day musical event.”
“It may turn out to be higher,” said Gross. “Theater owners are quick on their feet and can add capacity according to demand.”
The theatrical release, though limited, is out of the ordinary for the streaming giant, which has long stressed a commitment to subscriber releases. The movie debuted on the platform in late June and is currently Netflix’s most-watched animated original film.
The film centers on Huntr/x, a KPop superstar trio who double as demon hunters. The members, Rumi (Arden Cho), Mira (May Hong) and Zooey (Ji-young Yoo), must protect their fans and face their biggest enemy yet: a rival boy band made up of demons in disguise.
Zach Cregger’s horror hit “Weapons” maintained strength in the box office during its third weekend, bringing in $15.6 million domestically. The buzzy horror movie has proved its staying power, raking in over $100 million globally since its release.
Disney’s “Freakier Friday” landed behind the horror movie once again, earning $9.2 million in North American theaters.
The two films are “real bright spots” as the box office heads into a “rather quiet finish” for the summer, said Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst for the data firm Comscore. Both films, which premiered simultaneously earlier this month, had a minimal 36% drop from last weekend.
“I think we have to look at the currency of the goodwill generated by people having these great summer moviegoing experiences,” Dergarabedian said. “We have to look at that as a more important metric than just the bottom-line dollars and cents.”
“The Fantastic Four: First Steps” earned $5.9 million domestically during its fifth weekend. The movie enjoyed a strong $118 million debut but has experienced a steady decline.
Newcomer “Honey Don’t!” opened in 1,317 North American theaters with a weekend gross estimate of $3 million, in line with expectations. The movie made it to the top 10, right above “The Naked Gun.”
The dark comedy stars Margaret Qualley as Honey O’Donahue, a small-town private investigator who investigates a slew of strange deaths tied to a church in Bakersfield, California.
With final domestic figures being released Monday, this list factors in the estimated ticket sales for Friday through Sunday at U.S. and Canadian theaters, according to Comscore:
1. “Weapons,” $15.6 million.
2. “Freakier Friday,” $9.2 million.
3. “The Fantastic Four: First Steps,” $5.9 million.
Analysis of the total shrinkage and growth of cultivated land
From the perspective of the provincial total amount, the cultivated land in China showed a shrinking trend from 1990 to 2022 (Figs. 1, 2), with large regional contraction differences. In 1990, the total cultivated area of China was 1,965,762.9 square kilometers. In 2022, the cultivated area of China was 1884449.71 square kilometers. The total amount of cultivated land in 31 provinces and municipalities decreased by 81,313.19 square kilometers, with a contraction of 4.14%. The cultivated land in 25 provinces and municipalities directly under the Central Government showed a shrinking trend of 131,687.83 square kilometers, 1.62 times the total reduction across the country. The shrinking provinces accounted for 80.64%, which indicates that the cultivated land contraction in China is characterized by a wide contraction range and large contraction area. The cultivated area in the remaining six provinces showed an increasing trend, with a total increase of 50358.64 square kilometers. This means that China’s goal of a dynamic balance of cultivated land has basically been achieved, but regional differences still exist. Comparing (Figs. 1, 2), the cultivated land contraction is mainly concentrated in the economically developed areas of the southeast coast. The cultivated land growth provinces are mainly concentrated in the northeast, northwest, and southwest and other remote border areas and economically underdeveloped areas. This also shows that the increase and decrease in cultivated land is significantly related to the level of economic development.
Fig. 1
Changes in the total cultivated land by province in China from 1990 to 2022.
Fig. 2
Dynamics of the growth and shrinkage of cultivated land in various provinces of China.
According to the analysis of the cultivated land change amplitude in each province, Beijing (Q = −33.52%), Shanghai (Q = −24.63%), and Tianjin (Q = −22.91%) are among the top three in China (Table 1). Nearly a third of Beijing’s arable land is occupied. A fifth of the cultivated land in Shanghai and Tianjin is occupied. This shows that the large-scale development and construction of municipalities directly under the Central Government has brought a serious decrease in the amount of cultivated land resources. China’s major grain output provinces, including Shandong, Henan, Hunan, and other regions, have also shown a decrease in the cultivated area, posing a serious threat to China’s food security. In addition, cultivated land in Xinjiang (Q = 54.33%), Xizang (Q = 12.81%), Heilongjiang (Q = 8.51%), Hainan, Guizhou, Yunnan, and Jiangxi showed an increasing trend. Most of these provinces are located in areas with low urbanization and a low economic level. Xinjiang has the most prominent increase in cultivated area, with a cumulative increase of 30,549.3 square kilometers, accounting for 37.57% of the country’s cultivated area growth. This shows that cultivated land in China has shown new characteristics in spatial change. After 2005, the cultivated land growth rate in Xinjiang increased rapidly, mainly due to the balance policy of cultivated land occupation and compensation implemented by the state in 2006. A large number of developed regions have used the province’s development funds to purchase Xinjiang cultivated land indicators to achieve a balance between cultivated land occupation and compensation in this region. When cultivated land is occupied by development and construction, the developed areas purchase and construct the same amount of cultivated land in Xinjiang. This mode achieves the balance of inter-provincial cultivated land occupation and compensation, and at the same time, the investment of funds also drives the economic construction of underdeveloped areas. However, this compensation model for cultivated land is unsustainable. Due to the low annual precipitation in Xinjiang and Xizang, much of the cultivated land consumes a large amount of water resources. The shortage of water resources further destroys the already fragile ecological environment. Therefore, as it exacerbates the problem of water shortage in Xinjiang, this excessive cultivated land occupation and compensation balance model is also unsustainable. In addition, Heilongjiang, Hainan, Guizhou, Yunnan, and Jiangxi provinces are located in the main mountainous areas of China, lacking open plain terrain, which is not conducive to large-scale cultivation and offers limited growth in cultivated areas.
Table 1 Change in the cropland area in China.
From 1990 to 2022, Xinjiang, Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Shaanxi, and Hebei provinces had higher relative change rates in cultivated land. The relative change rate (R) in the cultivated land in 20 provinces was greater than 1, which indicates that the degree of cultivated land change in these areas was greater than the regional average level. The Huang–Huai–Hai Plain, the Sichuan Basin and its surroundings, the Loess Plateau, and other major grain producing areas have undergone dramatic changes in cultivated land area. Before 2010, the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta had the highest cultivated land loss in China. However, in the past 10 years, Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei, the Central Plains, and the Chengdu–Chongqing regions have had the highest cultivated land loss in China.
Analysis of the spatial evolution characteristics of the cultivated land shrinkage and growth
From the micro-spatial level of districts (Fig. 3a), from 1990 to 2022, 2033 districts and counties experienced a decrease in their cultivated land, accounting for 70.67% of the country. There were 844 districts and counties with cultivated land growth, and the contraction range was significantly larger than the growth range. From 1990 to 1995, the cultivated land increased in 915 districts and counties, and the cultivated land increased by 48,551.37 square kilometers. The cultivated land in 1962 districts and counties decreased by 57938.41 square kilometers. From 2015 to 2022, there were 1214 districts and counties with cultivated land growth, for a total of 46,289.51 square kilometers. The number of districts and counties with cultivated land contraction decreased to 1663, with 54205.48 square kilometers. Comparing the data of the two stages, the basic achievement of the policy goal of a dynamic balance in the increase and decrease in cultivated land in China is proven again. Although the number of growth districts and counties increased significantly, the area of cultivated land growth decreased. This shows that the growth potential of the cultivated land resources in districts and counties of China is limited.
Fig. 3
Changes in cropland in Chinese counties and districts from 1990 to 2022, make with ArcGIS 10.2: https://www.arcgis.com/.
The cultivated land in China shows a spatial pattern of planar contraction and banded growth (Fig. 3b). The growth districts and counties mainly formed two belt structures of “Xinjiang–Inner Mongolia–Heilongjiang” and “Yunnan–Guizhou–Jiangxi”. The cultivated area of Nenjiang City in Heilongjiang Province increased by 3000.39 square kilometers, ranking first in the country. The cultivated land in six districts and counties in Heilongjiang Province, four districts and counties in Xinjiang, and two districts and counties in Inner Mongolia increased by more than 1000 square kilometers. Large-scale cultivated land growth is mainly concentrated in this belt structure, which is also not conducive to the balanced development of cultivated land resources. The belt structure of “Xinjiang–Inner Mongolia–Heilongjiang” is limited by water resource scarcity and the population scale (Fig. 3c), and the growth in cultivated land resources will slow in the future. The belt structure of Yunnan–Guizhou–Jiangxi is restricted by mountains, hills, and water systems, and the growth potential of cultivated land resources will weaken. The districts and counties with shrinkage form a planar contraction mechanism. The planar structure is mainly concentrated in the Huang–Huai–Hai Plain, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, the Loess Plateau, and the Sichuan Basin and its surrounding areas. The loss of cultivated land in the Huang–Huai–Hai Plain is mainly concentrated in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region. In particular, the loss of cultivated land along the Shijiazhuang–Zhengzhou line is obvious. In the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, the cultivated land loss is mainly concentrated in the core areas of the Yangtze River Delta, such as Shanghai–Suzhou–Nanjing, Jiaxing–Hangzhou–Ningbo, and other areas along the Yangtze River. The loss of cultivated land in the Sichuan Basin mainly occurred in the Chengdu–Chongqing urban agglomeration area. In other areas, the loss of cultivated land is mainly in the surrounding areas of provincial capitals.
The cultivated land changes gradually formed a planar spatial clustering model. The hot spot growth areas were mainly concentrated in the northeast, northwest, and southwest regions. The hot spot contraction areas were mainly concentrated in the Central China Plain, Chengdu Plain, and the South China coastal areas. The spatial spillover effect of the cultivated land contraction in the Central China Plain and the Sichuan–Chongqing Plain was the most obvious, which is closely related to the development strategy of the national industrial center moving northward and western development.
In order to describe the spatial evolution characteristics of the cropland growth and contraction in China, we used the kernel density tool in the GIS to analyze the cropland change in China from 1990 to 2022. When the kernel density value of the cultivated land’s increase is positive, it means that the cultivated land in the study area is increasing during the study period. With the opposite, the cultivated land shows a shrinking trend. The results show that the cultivated land in China has the characteristics of alternating growth and contraction. The cultivated land in China no longer shows the previous trend of “increasing in the west and decreasing in the east”, but it shows a new characteristic of “increasing in the southwest, northwest, and northeast” and decreasing in the central part. From 1990 to 2000, China’s cultivated land alternately increased and decreased (Fig. 4). The cultivated land contraction structure was dominated by dots, and the cultivated land growth pattern was surrounded by belts. During this period, the total amount of cultivated land was dynamically balanced, and the occupation of cultivated land was linked to the completion of development and reclamation. With the rapid development of urbanization in China, a planar contraction structure centered on the Central Plains gradually formed. From 2000 to 2005, the cultivated land in China showed a significant spatial distribution characteristic of “increasing in the west and decreasing in the east.” The Yangtze River Delta, Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei, and other regions have developed rapidly, and the cultivated land has also rapidly formed a planar contraction structure. In order to curb the rapid spread in the areal contraction of cultivated land, the China government revised the Land Management Law in 1998.The basic cultivated land protection system was improved, and land protection systems such as “occupying one for one” of cultivated land occupied by construction and the collection of paid use fees for new construction land have been established. However, there are loopholes in these systems. For example, there is no reference to the quality of the supplementary cultivated land and no limitation on the scope of the compensation. These loopholes have led to the phenomenon that cultivated land makes up the difference, and a cross-provincial occupation and compensation balance occurs in the implementation process in many areas. This has led to the stable development of the spatial pattern of “increasing in the west and decreasing in the east” in terms of the cultivated land in China. This pattern continued until around 2010. In 2008, China formulated the Outline of the National Land Use Master Plan, reaffirming the strategic orientation of “the red line of 1.8 billion mu of cultivated land.” The cultivated area in the southeast coastal and central plains regions has increased significantly since. In 2017, the state once again issued Opinions on Strengthening Cultivated Land Protection and Improving the Balance of Occupation and Compensation. The opinions once again emphasized the “trinity” protection system of cultivated land and required all regions to implement the strictest cultivated land protection system. From 2015 to 2022, the cultivated land contraction pattern gradually changed into a belt contraction pattern, while the cultivated land growth pattern changed from a belt growth pattern to a plane growth pattern. Under the strict cultivated land protection system, cultivated land in China has seen a remarkable growth trend. Obviously, the growth and contraction in cultivated land in China have shown the characteristics of repeated alternating changes. With the change in the cultivated land system in China, cultivated land in China presented a zonal growth structure with dot growth as auxiliary, and the zonal growth gradually changed into a planar growth pattern. Cultivated land in China also presents a new pattern of cultivated land contraction, which is mainly planar and supplemented by dots. The planar contraction structure gradually changed into a new pattern of belt contraction and shows a trend in which cultivated land growth is stronger than cultivated land contraction.
Fig. 4
Distribution in the kernel density for the growth and shrinkage of cropland in China, make with ArcGIS 10.2: https://www.arcgis.com/.
Analysis of the cultivated land shrinkage and growth trend in China
In order to further describe the trend in the contraction and growth of cultivated land in China in detail, we used the standard deviation ellipse tool in ArcGIS10.2 to carry out segmented analysis on the change track of the cultivated land from 1990 to 2022 (Fig. 5) in order to depict the change track for the future growth and contraction of cultivated land in China. First, the center of gravity of cultivated land contraction moved to the northeast, then to the south, and then to the northwest. It showed a shrinking trend in the cultivated land across the “Hu–Huanyong Line.” The center of gravity of the cultivated land growth moved southward first, then northwestward, and then retreated southeastward. The center of gravity of the cultivated land growth presented an obvious southeastward moving trend. The growth and contraction in the cultivated land showed reverse trends of development. Secondly, from the perspective of the standard deviation ellipse change, there was no obvious difference in the major axis, minor axis, area, and direction of the cultivated land contraction in China from 1990 to 2005, mainly moving in the northeast direction. The contraction of cultivated land was relatively balanced, mainly concentrated in Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei, the Central Plains, and Northeast China. From 2005 to 2010, industry in Northeast China experienced a depression, and industries in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, the Central Plains, and other regions began to grow, and a large amount of cultivated land was occupied by urban construction and industrial development. During this period, the major axis of the cultivated land contraction ellipse became shorter, and the center of gravity moved to the southwest, resulting in the obvious southward movement of the ellipse. In 2008, the government proposed to implement the strictest cultivated land protection system and promulgated relevant laws and regulations. From 2010 to 2015, the major axis and minor axis of the cultivated land contraction ellipse became shorter, and the trend in the cultivated land contraction was obviously inhibited. However, from 2015 to 2022, the major and minor axes of the cultivated land contraction ellipse increased significantly, and the center of gravity moved westward significantly, showing a trend of cultivated land contraction crossing the “Hu–Huanyong Line.” The center of gravity of the cultivated land contraction moved to the periphery of the Chengdu–Chongqing area. This is also closely related to the gradual shift in the focus of industrial development to western China. With China’s western development strategy, the cultivated land around the Chengdu–Chongqing area has also shown an obvious shrinking trend.
Fig. 5
Growth and shrinkage trends of cropland in China, make with ArcGIS 10.2: https://www.arcgis.com/.
The major axis, the minor axis, the area, and the direction of the ellipse of cultivated land growth have obviously changed (Fig. 5). The major axis, minor axis, and area of cultivated land growth trajectory are larger than those of the contraction trajectory, which indicates that the cultivated land growth scope is relatively dispersed. From 1990 to 2000, the direction in the cultivated land growth and contraction ellipse was basically the same. However, the X axis of cultivated land growth became longer, and the center of gravity of cultivated land growth shifted from the northeast to the northwest. With the introduction of the new Land Management Law in 1998, the land policy of occupation and compensation balance was introduced. Since 2000, the growth track of cultivated land has obviously shifted to the northwest and southwest of China, and the growth center has obviously shifted westward. With the further support of the land policy of a balance between occupation and compensation, the focus of cultivated land growth from 2005 to 2010 was further shifted to Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and other economically underdeveloped remote areas. In 2008, the State Council issued the Circular on Promoting Economical and Intensive Land Use. The Third Plenary Session of the Seventeenth Central Committee of the Communist Party of China adopted the Decision on Several Major Issues Concerning Promoting Rural Reform and Development. It is stipulated that a strict and standardized rural land management system should be improved to protect cultivated land and adhere to the red line of 1.8 billion mu of cultivated land. These special laws, regulations, and policies formulated for the protection of cultivated land have greatly promoted the growth of cultivated land. From 2010, the growth center of cultivated land in China began to move to the developed provinces in the southeast coast. After 2010, the growth track of cultivated land moved southward. In 2015, the demarcation of permanent basic cultivated land began, and the policy of cultivated land occupation and compensation balance was improved from 2017 to 2018.The center of gravity of the cultivated land growth completely shifted to the south, and the cultivated land growth in northwest and northeast China slowed. The southeast has become the new center of arable land growth, including Guangdong, Fujian, Zhejiang, and other southeast coastal provinces. To summarize, China’s cultivated land contraction shows a trend of moving westward across the “Hu–Huanyong Line”, and cultivated land growth showed a trend of moving southeast across the “Hu–Huanyong Line”. In the process of cultivated land growth and contraction, industrialization, urbanization, and corresponding national land policies in China have played an obvious driving role.
Analysis of the influencing factors
Maintaining a dynamic balance of cultivated land is the fundamental guarantee to solve the problem of food security, and the policy of cultivated land protection plays an important role in this. From the above research results, the spatial distribution characteristics of the cultivated land growth and contraction in China’s cities are obviously different. The evolution trend of cultivated land is also highly consistent with the urbanization construction stage of each region. The core factor that leads to the difference in cultivated land in different regions lies in the national land policy. Urbanization and industrialization must also depend on national land policy, and the speed and scale of land supply will also directly affect the speed and scale of urbanization and industrialization. Based on this, the increase or decrease in urban cultivated land is also significantly related to urbanization and industrialization. Existing studies mainly analyze the changes in cultivated land growth from the aspects of topography, climate, economy, location, and national policy46,47,48. Few scholars have analyzed the change in cultivated land in China from the perspective of urban development and construction. Therefore, this study selected the urban development indicators related to urbanization and industrialization to explore the impact of urbanization and industrialization on cultivated land change in China. This study explored the main factors affecting the spatial distribution of urban cultivated land’s increase and decrease in China from the aspects of urban population size, economic level, industrial and agricultural scale, and other land use scales. This study provides a basis for policy making to deal with the contraction in cultivated urban land caused by excessive urbanization and industrialization. We used the correlation analysis and regression analysis in SPSS19.0 software. We analyzed the impact of urbanization on the growth and contraction in urban cultivated land in China, such as the urban population scale, economic level, industrial structure, and other types of land use scales, and constructed a multivariate explanatory model for the growth and contraction in urban cultivated land in China. First, we used correlation analysis to screen out the variables that were highly related to the change in cultivated land in China. Stepwise regression was used to screen variables with multicollinearity and exclude variables with lower explanations from the model. Then, we carried out multiple linear regression analysis between the significantly related variables and the scale of urban cultivated land. The“forced entry”analysis model was adopted to gradually eliminate the influencing factors with weak collinearity and low correlation such as urban tourism, urban construction land area, and urban real estate development investment. Finally, the key variables with a high correlation degree, strong fitting degree, and high collinearity with cultivated land change were obtained (Table 2).
Table 2 Multivariate linear regression analysis of cropland scale and its influencing factors in Chinese cities.
From the results of the statistical analysis (Table 2), it can be seen that the Sig. value of the explanatory model with cultivated land size as the dependent variable was 0.000a49. The Sig. values of each variable were also less than 0.05, which indicates that the statistical significance of the explanatory model is strong50. There was significant correlation between the dependent and independent variables. The absolute value of the T-test value of each independent variable was greater than 1.96, which also indicates that the independent variables have a significant impact on the interpretation of the model. Second, the collinearity VIF values of the explanatory models were all less than 7.5, which also excludes collinearity between the independent variables. In addition, the R2 values of this interpretation model were all greater than 0.5, and the residual histogram of the interpretation model was also normally distributed (Fig. 6). This further illustrates that the explanation model has strong robustness, good quality, and a high fitting degree. The explanatory model has strong statistical significance. The interpretation model can be used to explain the impact of urbanization on cultivated land change in China. The explanatory model is as follows:
Standardized residual histogram, make with SPSS 19.0: https://www.spss.com.hk/.
The urban population, urban economy, agriculture and industry, urban emissions, and other types of urban land are all significantly related to the increase and decrease in the urban cultivated land area. First, the natural population growth rate has the most significant effect on the increase and decrease in the urban cultivated area. Under the condition that other the independent variables remain unchanged, the cultivated area will decrease by 248.495 square kilometers for every 1‰ increase in the natural growth rate of the urban population. Properly promoting the natural growth of the urban population is conducive to the growth in the urban cultivated land area. However, since 1963, China’s national natural population growth rate has continued to decline, with a national natural population growth rate of minus 1.5‰ in 2023. It is relatively difficult to achieve a positive growth rate in the natural population nationwide. The continuous decline in the natural population growth rate has also become one of the main reasons for the continuous reduction in cultivated land. In addition, the urban GDP per capita significantly inhibited the growth in cultivated land area. When the per capita GDP of the city increases by CNY 10,000, the urban cultivated land decreases by 0.025 square kilometers. The more developed the urban economy, the higher the per capita GDP, which further compresses the cultivated land, which provides a relatively low income. Cultivated land is squeezed by other high-income spaces, and the cultivated area is significantly reduced. Obviously, a rapid improvement in the urban economic level occupies a large area of cultivated land. Local governments need to pay attention to the amount of cultivated land and quality while developing a local economy. In addition, the number of urban industries also showed a significant negative correlation with the cultivated land area. For every increase in the number of industrial enterprises in a city, the urban cultivated area shrinks by 0.497 square kilometers. The more significant the growth in the urban industrial scale, the more obvious the contraction in the urban cultivated area. Local governments should eliminate inefficient industrial enterprises with low production capacity and low output efficiency in time and revitalize inefficient urban industrial land. Local governments should properly control the occupation of basic cultivated land by new industrial land, which will help the growth in urban cultivated land. In addition to the replacement of urban cultivated land by industrial land, our study also found that urban residential land and landfill land have caused a decrease in urban cultivated land. For every 1 square kilometer of residential land added to the city, the city loses 23.560 square kilometers of cultivated land. The scale of cultivated land destruction is very significant. In the era of real estate as the pillar industry of urbanization in China, a large amount of residential land has occupied cultivated land, developing it into real estate. Local governments should pay attention to protecting cultivated land in the process of subsequent urban development and construction, to effectively prevent more cultivated land from being occupied by real estate. In addition, with the increase in the urban resident population, the scale of landfills with urban domestic waste becomes larger. These landfill sites are generally located in suburban areas. Landfill occupies cultivated land itself and also affects the growth of crops in the surrounding cultivated land. Large-scale domestic waste landfills also have a significant squeezing effect on the scale of cultivated land. Finally, we also found that the size of cultivated land was related to the concentration of fine particles in the urban air. The lower the concentration of fine particles in the urban air, the larger the cultivated land scale. Obviously, a large amount of cultivated land helps to absorb some fine particles, purify urban air, and improve urban air quality.
In addition, we also found factors that promoted growth in cultivated areas. The total urban registered population, urban primary industry employees, urban forest area, and urban and rural road area were positively correlated with the cultivated land area. The urban registered population is correlated with the total amount of urban cultivated land. The higher the registered population, the more cultivated land ownership should continue to increase, to ensure the basic food security of the registered population. In addition, in the process of rapid urbanization in China, a large number of rural people have entered the city to work. The scale of employees in the primary industry has decreased greatly, resulting in a large amount of cultivated land in rural areas being abandoned. Appropriate stimulation of the scale of employees in the primary industry and an increase in the wage level of employees in the primary industry are conducive to the growth in the cultivated land scale. The increase in the urban forest area and in urban and rural road area also contributed to the increase in the cultivated area. Forests can introduce water resources, which are conducive to cultivated land. Increases in the forest area and cultivated land scale mutually promote each other. Finally, we were surprised to find that the increase in the urban and rural road areas contributed to the increase in cultivated areas. The construction of large-scale cement roads for rural areas can help large-scale agricultural machinery and equipment to carry out large-scale farming and can help abandoned cultivated land to be developed again. Local governments should further strengthen infrastructure construction such as urban and rural roads. Reducing the cost of the commuting time between cities and rural areas can help increase the scale of cultivated land in rural areas.
To summarize, the urban population size, economic level, agricultural and industrial scale, and other types of land are the main factors affecting the distribution of urban cultivated land growth and contraction in China. These influencing factors have obvious inhibition or promotion effects on cultivated areas, and any change in the influencing factors in the explanatory model causes the cultivated area to fluctuate. China’s urban local governments should actively control the relevant variables suitable for their own development in combination with the influencing factors of the explanatory model. Combined with relevant impact indicators, the government should formulate corresponding policies for cultivated land protection and restoration. Only in this way can we firmly maintain the red line of 1.8 billion mu of cultivated land and gradually build all permanent basic cultivated land into high-standard cultivated land.
