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Without a specific headline event driving attention today, ARMOUR Residential REIT (ARR) is on investors’ radar because of its recent price moves and its role as a mortgage focused real estate investment trust.

The stock’s recent returns include a 5.3% decline over the past week, a 3.8% decline over the past month, and a 6.5% gain over the past 3 months, with shares last closing at US$17.40. Over the past year, the total return stands at 10.0%. The past 3 years show total returns of 8.1%, and the past 5 years show a 33.8% decline.

ARMOUR Residential REIT invests primarily in US agency residential mortgage backed securities, including fixed rate, hybrid adjustable rate, and adjustable rate home loans, along with unsecured notes and bonds from government sponsored entities and US Treasuries. It has elected REIT tax status, which means it is not subject to corporate income tax on qualifying income that is distributed to shareholders.

See our latest analysis for ARMOUR Residential REIT.

Putting it all together, ARMOUR Residential REIT’s recent 1 month share price return of 3.8% decline and 3 month gain of 6.5% contrast with a 5 year total shareholder return of 33.8% decline. This points to short term momentum improving off a weak longer term base.

If moves in mortgage focused REITs have your attention, this can be a good moment to broaden your search and check out fast growing stocks with high insider ownership for other ideas on Simply Wall St.

With ARMOUR Residential REIT’s mixed recent returns, rapid revenue and net income growth, and a share price close to the US$18.63 analyst target, you have to ask: is there hidden value here, or is the market already pricing in future growth?

ARMOUR Residential REIT’s most followed narrative suggests a fair value of $17.00, slightly below the last close of $17.40, which implies only a small valuation gap.

Federal Reserve easing and a potential shift toward using SOFR or similar repo based measures as a policy benchmark are expected to lower funding costs and reduce rate volatility, supporting wider economic net interest margins and more stable distributable earnings.

Read the complete narrative.

Analysts are not just talking about interest rates. They are incorporating powerful revenue growth, expanding margins and a very low future earnings multiple. Curious what that combination implies for 2028?

Result: Fair Value of $17.00 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.

However, this story could change if interest rates move higher again or if funding markets and repo liquidity come under stress, which would pressure margins and book value.

Find out about the key risks to this ARMOUR Residential REIT narrative.

If you look at the data and reach a different conclusion, or prefer to run the numbers yourself instead, you can build a custom view in under 3 minutes with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your ARMOUR Residential REIT research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 4 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

If ARMOUR Residential REIT has sharpened your interest, do not stop here. Use the Simply Wall St Screener to quickly surface other focused opportunities across the market.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include ARR.

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