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Welcome to Energy Source, coming to you today from a sweltering London, where a giant heatwave has descended on the city.

It’s been a hot news cycle as well, as the energy industry digests the news that Shell will not be bidding for BP — at least not before Christmas.

Meanwhile, a fragile truce remains in place in the Middle East, where hostilities between Israel and Iran seem to be on hold for now.

If you’d like to test your knowledge of how the oil market responded to previous Middle East crises, try your hand at the FT’s interactive “Draw your own chart” game. It’s harder than you think.

And in today’s Energy Source, my colleague Camilla Hodgson takes a look at the future of sodium-ion batteries — a potential rival to lithium-ion batteries — and whether they might be overhyped.

Thanks for reading, Leslie

Sodium battery hype doesn’t match reality, says new report

Demand for a new battery technology using sodium ions will grow slower than Chinese electric-vehicle battery maker CATL expects, with hype outpacing real-world deployment, according to new analysis.

The findings by research group Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, shared exclusively with the FT, found that forecasts by CATL about the growth of sodium-ion batteries were unrealistic.

The research finds that sodium-ion batteries, which make up less than 1 per cent of the global battery market today, will represent about 3 per cent of batteries in a decade in a base case scenario, and as much as 15.5 per cent in an “early adoption” scenario.

Sodium-ion batteries — which are made using sodium salt — are seen as a cheaper alternative to lithium-based batteries, and work better at very high and low temperatures. They have started to be used in some large, stationary energy storage systems, as well as in electric scooters in China.

However, they are typically less energy-dense relative to their size, which has held back their use in EVs, and have become less cost-competitive since the slump in lithium prices.

Demand was still “relatively small” for what was a “nascent technology”, said Benchmark.

In April, CATL launched a new range of sodium-ion batteries, which will start mass production by the end of the year. Founder and chief executive Robin Zeng has said he believes sodium-ion batteries could replace up to half of the market for lithium-iron phosphate batteries.

But Benchmark said on Tuesday that was unrealistic. Although sodium-ion batteries “have a place in the energy transition”, the technology was “not ready to go mass-market and the current positive sentiment is driven by hype”. 

According to Benchmark, Zeng’s forecast would represent about 1.8 terawatt hours of sodium-ion batteries deployed by 2035. That would require “an immediate breakthrough” in the technology’s performance and cost, and a rise in lithium prices, it said. 

By contrast, Benchmark’s most optimistic scenario is for demand to reach about 946 gigawatt hours by 2035, or just under 1 TWh, an estimate that also assumed rising lithium prices among other things. 

CATL and Chinese carmaker BYD are among the biggest manufacturers of sodium-ion batteries.

Fluctuating commodity prices have encouraged innovations in battery technology. Although lithium-iron phosphate batteries remain the dominant option, a range of alternatives, including sodium-ion and solid-state batteries, are also in development.

Sodium-ion supply chains need to scale up to bring down costs, and the technology should be directed into areas where it could “differentiate itself now that price isn’t compensating for weaker performance”, said Connor Watts, an analyst at price reporting agency Fastmarkets. 

That would include the energy storage market, where they would not be competing directly with lithium-based batteries on price. 

“Sodium’s continued improvement is inevitable, but it will take another few generational improvements before western consumers can be convinced to switch over,” said Watts. (Camilla Hodgson)

Power Points

Energy Source is written and edited by Jamie Smyth, Martha Muir, Alexandra White, Kristina Shevory, Tom Wilson and Malcolm Moore, with support from the FT’s global team of reporters. Reach us at energy.source@ft.com and follow us on X at @FTEnergy. Catch up on past editions of the newsletter here.

Sobi® (STO: SOBI), today announced a capped royalty purchase agreement with Apellis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. under which Sobi will reduce its ex-US royalty obligations to Apellis by 90% for Aspaveli® (systemic pegcetacoplan) in exchange for $275 million upfront and up to $25 million in additional milestone payments dependent on regulatory approvals in the European Union for C3 glomerulopathy (C3G) and primary immune complex membranoproliferative glomerulonephritis (IC-MPGN).

“We are pleased to continue our ongoing partnership with Apellis and share their strong belief in Aspaveli/EMPAVELI’s potential to deliver significant long-term growth,” said Guido Oelkers, Chief Executive Officer at Sobi.  “We look forward to continuing the regulatory process in Europe and are well positioned to bring this novel treatment to patients with C3G and IC-MPGN leveraging our deep rare disease expertise.”

Aspaveli/EMPAVELI is approved in the European Union, other countries globally, and the US for the treatment of paroxysmal nocturnal haemoglobinuria (PNH) who have haemolytic anaemia, a rare blood disorder. It is currently under review in the European Union and the U.S. for the treatment of C3 glomerulopathy (C3G) and primary immune complex membranoproliferative glomerulonephritis (IC-MPGN), rare kidney diseases. An opinion by the European Medicines Agency’s (EMA) Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP) is expected before year-end. In the U.S., the Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA) action date is July 28, 2025.

“Through our collaboration, Sobi has developed a deep understanding of Aspaveli/EMPAVELI’s potential to significantly improve patient outcomes and deliver long-term value as a rare disease franchise,” said Timothy Sullivan, Chief Financial Officer, Apellis. “This transaction reflects our shared conviction in the potential of Aspaveli/EMPAVELI to transform the treatment landscape for patients with rare diseases, including C3G and IC-MPGN.”

Transaction Highlights

• Upfront Payment: $275 million in cash.
• Milestone Payments: Up to $25 million upon EMA approval of Aspaveli® for C3G and IC-MPGN.
• Royalty Structure: Sobi will reduce its ex-U.S. royalty obligation to Apellis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. by 90% until defined caps are achieved, after which ex-U.S. royalties revert to the original license agreement.
   

About the Sobi and Apellis Collaboration
Sobi and Apellis have global co-development rights for systemic pegcetacoplan.

Sobi has exclusive ex-U.S. commercialization rights for systemic pegcetacoplan, and its opt-in rights for future development programs are unchanged, exercisable at any time prior to commercialisation. Apellis has exclusive U.S. commercialization rights for systemic pegcetacoplan and worldwide commercial rights for ophthalmological pegcetacoplan, including for geographic atrophy.
 

About C3 Glomerulopathy (C3G) and Primary Immune Complex Membranoproliferative Glomerulonephritis (IC-MPGN)
C3G and primary IC-MPGN are rare and debilitating kidney diseases that can lead to kidney failure. Excessive C3 deposits are a key marker of disease activity, which can lead to kidney inflammation, damage, and failure. Approximately 50% of people living with C3G and primary IC-MPGN suffer from kidney failure within five to 10 years of diagnosis, requiring a burdensome kidney transplant or lifelong dialysis.1 Additionally, approximately 90% of patients who previously received a kidney transplant will experience disease recurrence.2 The diseases are estimated to affect 5,000 people in the United States and up to 8,000 in Europe.3

About Sobi®
Sobi is a global biopharma company unlocking the potential of breakthrough innovations, transforming everyday life for people living with rare diseases. Sobi has approximately 1,900 employees across Europe, North America, the Middle East, Asia and Australia. In 2024, revenue amounted to SEK 26 billion. Sobi’s share (STO:SOBI) is listed on Nasdaq Stockholm. More about Sobi at sobi.com and LinkedIn.

Contacts 
For details on how to contact the Sobi Investor Relations Team, please click here. For Sobi Media, click here. 

This information is information that Sobi is obliged to make public pursuant to the EU Market Abuse Regulation. The information was submitted for publication, through the agency of the contact person set out below, on 1 July 2025 at 1:00 PM CEST.

Gerard Tobin

Head of Investor Relations

References

1. C3 glomerulopathy. National Institute of Health, Genetics Home Reference. https://ghr.nlm.nih.gov/condition/c3-glomerulopathy#resources. Accessed November 21, 2019.

2. Tarragón, B, et al. C3 Glomerulopathy Recurs Early after Kidney Transplantation in Serial Biopsies Performed within the First 2 Years after Transplantation. Clinical Journal of the American Society of Nephrology. August 2024; 19(8)1005-1015. doi: 10.2215/CJN.0000000000000474.

3. Data on file using literature consensus.

Natilus’s BWB design offers 40% more interior capacity, which the HORIZON utilizes to make air travel more comfortable and enjoyable. Intended to have a largely customizable layout to meet the needs of each individual airline and its customer base, the HORIZON is reimagining what air travel can be with the introduction of innovative spaces for business travelers to families.

Work from the Sky in HORIZON’s Video Conference Pods

For the first time on commercial aircraft, the HORIZON will be equipped with three video conference pods that act as conference rooms for the business-oriented passengers. The pods will be compatible with both video and phone calls and will be Wi-Fi-enabled, so that passengers can continue to collaborate and be productive during flight.

Families Take Center Stage with Club Seating

The HORIZON will also include Deluxe Club Seating, where a family of four can comfortably sit two-by-two facing each other, making it easy to communicate, play, and share experiences throughout the flight. No longer limited by the dreaded middle seat, the club seating is attractive for airlines looking to cater to family units with small children.

Intelligent Lighting Connected to Infotainment

The HORIZON will be equipped with an intelligent lighting system with simulated skylights and windows that can be customized to a seating zone, mimicking natural light or ambient lighting to ease the impact of jetlag. The lighting can also be coordinated with the infotainment screens to create an immersive entertainment experience.

HORIZON: Benefits of 40% More Capacity

With its unique blended-wing body design, the dramatic gains in interior cabin space translate to an entirely new experience for passengers. In this new design, the HORIZON boasts:

• Luxe, lie-flat first class seats that allow travelers to rest during long-haul flights, evoking a sense of a private retreat;
• Economy seats where every passenger enjoys their own dedicated seat with back-of-seat infotainment systems, featuring a wide selection of movies, music, and connectivity options to make the journey as enjoyable as it is efficient;
• Tall ceiling heights at 7.5 feet to make the cabin feel even more spacious; and
• Eight exit doors for ease of egress, with the possibility for carriers to opt for double doors.

“The HORIZON is an innovative aircraft that ushers in a new era of air travel, offering significantly more interior space—which we’ve used to create a more comfortable and enjoyable cabin,” said Aleksey Matyushev, CEO and Co-founder of Natilus. “This aircraft will provide our commercial airline customers with the ultimate platform to elevate the passenger experience.”

About Natilus
Natilus is a San Diego-based developer of hyper-efficient blended-wing-body (BWB) aircraft designed to transport people and cargo more sustainably and efficiently than ever before. Natilus’s BWB aircraft unlocks improved aviation economics by reducing fuel consumption by 30% while increasing payload capability by 40%.The Natilus team is comprised of innovators from General Atomics, Northrop Grumman, Skunkworks, SpaceX, and Piper Aircraft. Learn more at natilus.co.

SOURCE Natilus