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19 December 2025

• ECB wage tracker updated with wage agreements signed up to end of November 2025; forward-looking horizon extended to end of December 2026
• Forward-looking information indicates easing of negotiated wage growth, consistent with data published following October 2025 Governing Council meeting
• ECB wage tracker with unsmoothed one-off payments at 3.0% in 2025 and 2.7% in 2026

The European Central Bank (ECB) wage tracker, which covers active collective bargaining agreements, indicates negotiated wage growth with smoothed one-off payments of 3.2% in 2025 (based on a coverage of 49.5% of employees in participating countries) and 2.3% in 2026 (based on a coverage of 28.8%). The ECB wage tracker with unsmoothed one-off payments indicates negotiated wage growth of 3.0% in 2025 and 2.7% in 2026. The wage tracker excluding one-off payments indicates an easing of negotiated wage growth from 3.9% in 2025 to 2.6% in 2026. The headline ECB wage tracker is better suited to describing quarterly or monthly dynamics in negotiated wages as it smoothens one-off payments over time. Meanwhile, the ECB wage tracker with unsmoothed one-off payments is better suited to describing yearly dynamics, ensuring that one-off payments are not smoothed twice when constructing the yearly outcomes.

For 2026, the headline ECB wage tracker stands at 2.0% in the first quarter, 2.1% in the second quarter, 2.5% in the third quarter and 2.7% in the fourth quarter. The rise in the wage path over the course of the year is related to the dissipation of the mechanical downward effect of large one-off payments that were made in 2024 but not in 2025. The ECB wage tracker also suggests that there is less dispersion in negotiated wage pressures across the different euro area countries in 2026 in comparison with previous years.

The ECB wage tracker with unsmoothed one-off payments (3.1% in the first quarter, 2.5% in the second quarter, 2.4% in the third quarter and 2.7% in the fourth quarter) also reflects the more stable and less volatile outlook in negotiated wage growth for 2026 in comparison with previous years. The wage tracker excluding one-off payments stands at 2.8% in the first quarter, 2.6% in the second quarter, 2.5% in the third quarter and 2.7% in the fourth quarter, which also suggests more moderate negotiated wage dynamics than in previous years. The employee coverage in 2026 stands at 36.9% in the first quarter, 30.1% in the second quarter, 24.8% in the third quarter and 23.4% in the fourth quarter. See Chart 1 and Table 1 for further details.

Since the previous data release in November 2025, the ECB wage tracker has been expanded to retroactively include collective agreements in Finland from January 2015 onwards. The forward-looking horizon has been extended to the end of December 2026, providing some initial insights for the full year.

Overall, the ECB wage tracker may be subject to revisions, and the forward-looking component should not be interpreted as a forecast, as it only captures the information that is currently available for active collective bargaining agreements. Moreover, the ECB wage tracker does not track the indicator of negotiated wage growth precisely and deviations are to be expected over time. For a more comprehensive assessment of wage developments in the euro area, please refer to the December 2025 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, which indicate a yearly growth rate of compensation per employee in the euro area of 4.0% in 2025 and 3.2% in 2026.

The ECB publishes four wage tracker indicators for the aggregate of nine participating euro area countries on the ECB Data Portal.

What do the four different indicators show?

• The headline ECB wage tracker is a tracker of negotiated wage growth that includes collectively agreed one-off payments, such as those related to inflation compensation, bonuses or back-dated pay, which are smoothed over 12 months.
• The ECB wage tracker excluding one-off payments reflects the extent of structural (or permanent) negotiated wage increases.
• The ECB wage tracker with unsmoothed one-off payments is constructed using a methodology that, in terms of both data sources and statistical methodology, is conceptually similar to, but not necessarily the same as, that used for the ECB indicator of negotiated wage growth.
• The share of employees covered is the percentage of employees across the participating countries that are directly covered by ECB wage tracker data. This indicator provides information on the representativeness of the underlying (negotiated) wage growth signals obtained from the set of wage tracker indicators for the aggregate of the participating countries. Employee coverage differs across countries and within each country over time (more details can be found in Table 2).

For media queries, please contact Benoit Deeg, tel.: +491721683704

Notes

• The ECB wage tracker is the result of a Eurosystem partnership currently comprising the European Central Bank and nine euro area national central banks: the Nationale Bank van België/Banque Nationale de Belgique, the Deutsche Bundesbank, the Bank of Greece, the Banco de España, the Banque de France, the Banca d’Italia, De Nederlandsche Bank, the Oesterreichische Nationalbank and Suomen Pankki – Finlands Bank. It is based on a highly granular database of active collective bargaining agreements for Belgium, Germany, Greece, Spain, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Austria and Finland. The wage tracker can be used to help assess wage pressures in the euro area.
• The wage tracker methodology uses a double aggregation approach. First, it aggregates the highly granular information on collective bargaining agreements and constructs the wage tracker indicators at the country level using information on the employee coverage within each country. Second, it uses this information to construct the aggregate for the euro area using time-varying weights based on the total compensation of employees among the participating countries.
• Given that the forward-looking nature of the tracker is dependent on the underlying collective bargaining agreements database, the wage signals should always be considered conditional on the information available at any given point in time and thus subject to revisions. This is particularly relevant at the turn of the year as many agreements are signed or renewed in the first quarter in some countries.
• The results in this press release do not represent the views of the ECB’s decision-making bodies.

Transitioning to renewables is critical when it comes to confronting the climate crisis, and Germany is seeing this advance at the household level. 

Small solar devices that can be plugged into household sockets are growing ever more popular in the country, with more than 1 million installed in the past three years. 

The modules are usually about 2 square meters (21.5 square feet) in size, with up to four included in a minisystem, and easily installed on areas such as balconies, where they work as safely as other household appliances — only in reverse. The electricity flows from the solar module via an inverter through the household socket back into the power grid. 

Increasingly, these systems also include battery storage, meaning that excess electricity can be saved for later use.  

Electricity from your own balcony

The rapidly falling cost of solar power and battery storage is a major climate success story of recent years, helping renewables overtake coal for the first time in global electricity generation in 2025.

The plummeting prices have filtered down to the household level in Germany. The price of solar panel systems for balconies has halved in the last two years, with small models available from around €200 ($233) and large ones that include storage costing under €1,000 ($1166). In Germany, they generate electricity for less than half the cost of electricity from the grid.

According to the Berlin University of Applied Sciences (HTW), the purchase usually pays for itself within four to seven years. After that, the electricity households generate for themselves is free. 

Solar modules can keep working for over 30 years, and the batteries “can be expected to have a service life of 10-15 years,” said Volker Quaschning, professor of renewable energy systems at HTW. With four modules and storage, about half of the electricity requirements of a two-person household in Central Europe can be covered. 

Germany leading the pack

“Most plug-in solar devices are still sold in Germany, far ahead of the rest of the world,” says David Breuer, managing director of Yuma, a German-based company selling plug-in solar devices. 

Though sunnier regions elsewhere have the potential to generate far more electricity, in Germany falling prices, improved technology and political support have helped drive a solar balcony boom. 

Since 2023, private solar installations in the country have been exempt from VAT, and, since autumn 2024, tenants and apartment owners have been allowed to install solar modules on their balconies themselves. 

Devices with a module output of up to 2,000 watts are permitted in most EU countries, and the devices are allowed to feed up to 800 watts of electricity directly into the residential grid. This limitation protects the power lines in the home from overload, making it safe to use.

Interest is now spreading to other countries, including many in the EU, as well as Brazil, the United States and Japan.

“We just had a delegation from Tokyo visiting. They want to introduce plug-in solar devices and were gathering information about technical safety,” Thomas Seltmann, an expert on plug-in solar devices at the German Solar Industry Association, told DW. 

Reducing energy costs 

Germany is aiming to be climate-neutral by 2045. Plug-in solar devices could cover up to 2% of electricity demand by then, Claudia Kemfert, head of the Energy, Transportation, Environment Department at the German Institute for Economic Research, told DW. So far, most solar power in the country comes from rooftop installations, followed by large solar parks.

For many customers, a plug-in system for the balcony is just the beginning. “They are a gateway to other measures such as larger photovoltaic systems or the purchase of an electric car or a heat pump,” says Christoph Kost, head of energy systems analysis at the Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE, a German research organization. 

“Plug-in solar devices enable people to become part of the energy transition themselves, reduce their electricity costs and make themselves less dependent on energy price fluctuations,” Kemfert said. 

Get advice before buying

It is important to be well-informed before buying, said Tobias Otto, from the German Solar Energy Association, which provides independent advice.

This should start with considering first how many modules will fit on a balcony, terrace or roof and at what angle they can be installed, as well as how the sun hits the location. 

For those with three to four modules, a battery storage unit with intelligent control is often worthwhile. This means electricity demand can be measured at the meter or at sockets and then ensures the battery supplies the exact amount needed. “Without such measuring devices, the storage system cannot usually be controlled effectively,” Otto told DW.

Some battery-powered plug-in devices also have an emergency supply that helps in the event of a power failure. Many can also be set up outdoors, although they do consume power themselves when placed in very cold or warm temperatures. 

Experts also advise sticking to reliable suppliers. “There’s a lot of dodgy stuff on offer,” Seltman said. “We therefore recommend buying from specialist retailers.”

This article was originally written in German.