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ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s benchmark KSE-100 Index rose by 60 percent during the outgoing fiscal year, a top brokerage firm said in its report this week, crediting the stock market’s impressive performance to macroeconomic stability, improved credit ratings and “aggressive” easing of the monetary policy. 

Pakistan has undertaken a series of International Monetary Fund-recommended structural reforms and fiscal adjustments aimed at stabilizing the economy since it came to the brink of a sovereign default in 2023. These measures have led to increasing macroeconomic stability, reduced inflation and improved ratings from international credit agencies. 

“Pakistan’s benchmark KSE-100 index is up 60 percent YoY in PKR terms and 57 percent in USD terms in FY25,” Topline Securities, a Karachi-based top brokerage firm, said on Monday. 

The report said that over the past two fiscal years (FY24 and FY25), the PSX has recorded a total gain of 203 percent in terms of the Pakistani rupee and 206 percent in terms of the US dollar. It credited the Pakistan Stock Exchange’s (PSX) rise to macroeconomic stability achieved by the country after it secured a $7 billion International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) loan program. 

Topline Securities said other factors contributing to the “remarkable rally” at the stock market are the completion of the IMF’s first review by Pakistan in March, the central bank’s “aggressive” monetary easing from 20.5 percent to 11 percent, and improvement in the country’s credit rating by Fitch from CCC+ to B-.

“As per Bloomberg data, Pakistan’s market was the 8th best performer in FY25 with a total USD return of 57 percent,” the report said. “However, over the cumulative two-year period (FY24 and FY25), it ranked as the best-performing market in the world.”

The report noted that average traded volumes in the cash/ready market increased by 37 percent YoY to an average of 631 million shares per day during FY25, adding that the average traded value also jumped by 80 percent YoY to Rs28 billion per day.

The report warned Pakistan may face pressure in achieving its revenue targets for FY26 but said it expected the government to pass the IMF’s program reviews in a timely manner by meeting the lender’s objectives. This, the report said, Islamabad would achieve through cutting development and other non-essential expenditures.

Topline Securities said it also expected a credit rating upgrade for Pakistan in the current fiscal year.

“The rating upgrade in our view is quite likely as debt ratios and FX reserves are showing improvements,” the report said. “With the credit rating upgrade to ‘B’ category, Pakistan may resort to the international bond market by issuing Eurobond and Sukuks which will further support FX reserves and strengthen the debt maturity profile of the country,” it added. 

The report pointed out that any developments in Pakistan–US relations under President Donald Trump’s administration, along with regional tensions, could “significantly influence market sentiment.”

“Currently, a ceasefire is in place between India and Pakistan; however, any escalation could negatively affect investor confidence,” it said.

It also warned that any further conflict in the Middle East is likely to have broader macroeconomic implications for Pakistan amidst its dependency on oil imports, which could then weigh on the stock market’s performance.

• Report says alerts were sent multiple times to DCs, PDMA.
• Dept recommends providing flood rescue equipment to Rescue 1122.
• It suggests developing policy to confine tourists to safe areas.

PESHAWAR: As the concerns regarding the tragic death of 12 people by drowning in the Swat River due to a deluge grow, worrisome reports of official negligence continue to emerge. 

A departmental probe revealed that the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa irrigation department had issued multiple warnings to relevant organisations and the deputy commissioners of Swat, Charsadda, and Nowshera just hours before a flash flood in the Swat River that lead to the loss of precious lives.

The tragedy occurred when 17 members of a family from Sialkot were swept away by a sudden surge in the river while picnicking on a mound near the bank. Disturbing videos circulating on social media showed the family stranded on a rapidly shrinking patch of land, crying out for help for nearly an hour, with no immediate rescue response.

So far, 12 bodies have been recovered, including that of a child found in Charsadda on Sunday. Search is still underway as one person remains missing.

The report stated that the river’s flow at Khwazakhela spiked dramatically from 6,738 cusecs to 77,782 cusecs within a few hours on June 27. The first warning was issued at 8:41am, alerting all concerned authorities — including the deputy commissioners of Swat, Charsadda, and Nowshera — of the potential flood risk.

The department continued to send real-time updates through WhatsApp and issued a severe flood warning by 10:30am. Repeated alerts were sent to the DCs, the Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA), ADC Relief, and other relevant bodies, indicating that the department had issued timely and comprehensive warnings.

According to the report, tourists at Khwazakhela had entered the river when water levels were still normal but became trapped as the flow rose sharply due to heavy rainfall. 

It also noted that silt accumulation in the riverbed since 2022 has made it easier for visitors to wade deeper into the stream, increasing the risk during sudden surges.

In its recommendations, the Irrigation Department suggested equipping Rescue 1122 with flood rescue gear, restricting access to tourist areas, and holding hotel owners accountable for allowing visitors into hazardous zones. 

It also proposed that local administrations develop a policy to confine tourists to safe areas and recommended the installation of additional telemetry gauges in Madyan and Kalam to enhance monitoring of river levels.

Failures in oversight, rescue efforts

The rescue services has also come under fire after the Swat River tragedy. Despite being stationed just 3 to 4 kilometres from the site, Rescue 1122 teams reportedly took 19 minutes to arrive and were ill-equipped, lacking boats, ropes, and trained divers. Equipment had to be ordered during the operation, arriving too late to make a meaningful difference.

Additionally, attention has turned to encroachments along the riverbank. Critics have questioned how structures were allowed to be built within 200 feet of the river, in violation of safety regulations.

Although the government has since launched a crackdown on such illegal constructions, there are calls for accountability against the officials who issued no-objection certificates (NOCs) and building permits.

Observers stress that for the operation to be effective and accepted by the public, it must be carried out without bias, regardless of the socioeconomic or political status of those affected.

In response to the incident, the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa government has imposed a complete ban on mining along riverbeds and initiated a province-wide operation to remove illegal structures.

The authorities are now under increased pressure to address the systemic issues that contributed to the deadly incident and to implement reforms that prioritise safety and accountability.