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How strong is economic growth?

Economic growth is forecast to reach 2.4% in early 2026, a rate that’s slightly above the pace the economy can comfortably sustain, sometimes called its “speed limit.”

Households are a major driver of this strength, helped by earlier interest rate cuts, recent tax changes and steady job and income gains. Investment in data centres and renewable energy projects is also adding momentum as are improvement in housing investment and support from public demand.

What could this mean for borrowers?

The expected February rate rise would be a fine-tuning move, not the start of a large run-up in interest rates. The RBA is aiming to nudge inflation back toward target rather than cool the economy sharply.

However, if household spending or business investment turns out even stronger than expected, the RBA may need to raise rates more than once. In contrast, coolness in the labour market or a faster fall in inflation could deter the RBA.

The bottom line

Australia enters 2026 in solid shape, but its strength is keeping inflation higher than the RBA would like. A modest rate rise in February looks likely as the central bank works to keep price pressures in check while supporting a steady, sustainable pace of growth.

“We expect inflation to gradually return toward the midpoint of the target band by late 2027. A small rate rise next year would help set the foundation for a steady, sustainable period of growth,” said Allen.

Read Belinda Allen and the Australian Economic team’s full analysis: The Australian economy in 2026 – prepare for higher interest rates

Link to photos (Courtesy Office of the Lieutenant Governor)

HONOLULU – In anticipation of the busy holiday travel season, state leaders provided updates on various technology enhancements at Hawai‘i’s airports to help improve the travel experience for residents. They also provided an update on the state’s digitized agriculture declaration form, Akamai Arrival, which is now live on all domestic flights to Hawai‘i.

With holiday travel expected to surge in the coming weeks, Lieutenant Governor Sylvia Luke, who led the launch of Akamai Arrival, reminded residents returning home that they will now complete the agriculture declaration form digitally, meaning no more hard copies and no need for a pen. The form can be filled out online either in-flight or up to five days before traveling.

“Modernizing our systems is about making life easier for our residents while strengthening the protections that keep Hawai‘i special. With the agriculture form now fully digital on all domestic flights, we want to remind residents of this new change — especially for those seeing it for the first time this holiday season,” said Lt. Gov. Luke. “After decades of digging through your bag or borrowing a pen from the person next to you, we finally have a simpler, more efficient solution that supports our state’s biosecurity efforts and protects Hawai‘i’s natural environment.”

The digital agriculture form first launched as a pilot in February 2025 and has since been fully adopted by all domestic airline partners flying to Hawaiʻi. Early data show compliance increased from an average of 60% with the paper form to 85% with the digital form, supporting the Hawai‘i Department of Agriculture and Biosecurity and the state’s broader commitment to protecting Hawai‘i’s natural resources.

The state is also continuing to make progress in implementing improvements throughout Hawai‘i’s airports to increase efficiency, safety and comfort for travelers. The Hawai‘i Department of Transportation (HDOT) has launched various online tools and technology to provide important information about the airports and help travelers get through check-in and security procedures before they board their flight.

“Traveling, especially during the busy holidays can be stressful, which is why HDOT is always looking for ways to help guide travelers through the required airport procedures, as well as provide different tools that can enhance their overall experience at the airport,” said HDOT Director Ed Sniffen.

HDOT now offers free airport wayfinding apps to help travelers better plan their time at the airport, including navigating the terminals, checking airport flight information and finding restaurants, shops and other amenities and services. HDOT is working to add a link on the apps to the Akamai Arrival form. The HNL Airport app for the Daniel K. Inouye International Airport and LIH Airport App for the Lῑhuʻe Airport can be downloaded from Google Play and Apple Store.

Apps for Maui and Hawai‘i Island airports will be launched over the next three months. The OGG Airport app for Kahului Airport is expected to be available to the public on January 20, 2026. The KOA Airport app for the Ellison Onizuka International Airport at Keāhole is planned for February 2, 2026. An app for Hilo International Airport is currently being developed and expected to be ready by March 30, 2026.

Large electronic display signs installed earlier this year in Terminal 1 of HNL allow travelers to view anticipated wait times at security checkpoints. Checkpoint status displays will be added in Terminal 2 upon completion of renovations to Checkpoint 3, which is expected in late 2026.

Travelers departing from the Honolulu and Kona airports can check the estimated available parking counts (refreshed every 10 minutes) via the HNL and KOA websites, respectively. The estimated parking count for HNL can also be accessed via the HNL Airport app.

HDOT offers the following tips for air travelers:

• Prior to going to the airport, check with your airline on the status of your flight, including any delays and gate assignments, as well as baggage claim area if you’re picking up arriving passengers.
• Remember to bring your REAL ID-compliant driver’s license, state ID, passport, or other acceptable form of identification to avoid delays at security checkpoints.
• Plan to arrive at the airport at least two hours prior to your scheduled flight departure for mainland or international flights, or 90 minutes early for interisland flights, to allow sufficient time to complete every step of the travel process including finding a place to park, checking luggage and getting through security.
• If possible, get dropped off or use public transportation to get to the airport. On O‘ahu, travelers can take advantage of the city’s Skyline rail service to get to and from the Daniel K. Inouye International Airport, thus avoiding traffic and parking fees.
• Hawai‘i airport parking lots fill up quickly over the holidays, particularly at the Līhu‘e and Hilo Airports, so it’s recommended that passengers plan accordingly.
• Travelers are reminded to lock their vehicle and not leave keys, valuables, or the parking ticket in the vehicle while parked in an airport lot.
• When going through security screening, families traveling with children can use the Transportation Security Administration’s (TSA) dedicated family lane located in Terminal 2, Checkpoint 4.
• TSA has created a series of videos to help travelers before they go through security checkpoints. See https://airports.hawaii.gov/hnl/flights/tsa-travel-tips/ for the collection of videos and a link to additional TSA resources.

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