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  • ‘Serious questions to answer’ over Afghan data breach, says Keir Starmer | Ministry of Defence

    ‘Serious questions to answer’ over Afghan data breach, says Keir Starmer | Ministry of Defence

    Conservative former ministers have “serious questions to answer” over the secret scheme to resettle Afghan nationals named in a data breach under the previous government, Keir Starmer has said.

    In his first comment on the subject since news of the £850m programme emerged after an unprecedented superinjunction blocking discussion about it was lifted on Tuesday, the prime minister welcomed a planned inquiry into what happened led by the Commons defence committee.

    “There has always been support across this house for the United Kingdom fulfilling our obligations to Afghans who served alongside British forces,” Starmer said at the start of prime minister’s questions.

    “We warned in opposition about Conservative management of this policy, and yesterday, the defence secretary set out the full extent of the failings that we inherited: a major data breach, a superinjunction, a secret route that has already cost hundreds of millions of pounds.”

    He added: “Ministers who served under the party opposite have serious questions to answer about how this was ever allowed to happen. The chair of the defence committee has indicated that he intends to hold further inquiries. I welcome that and hope that those who were in office at the time will welcome that scrutiny.”

    Kemi Badenoch, the Conservative leader, did not mention the Afghan scheme at prime minister’s questions, instead focusing her questions on the economy.

    Speaking after PMQs, Starmer’s press secretary said Badenoch had been offered a security briefing about the situation in March, but refused.

    Badenoch’s spokesperson said that as opposition leader she received “innumerable” offers of security briefings, and refused this one as it was not marked as urgent. In June the issue was listed as urgent, so she sought a briefing, and was informed about the scheme on Monday, he added.

    Badenoch’s spokesperson was unable to say precisely how many briefings were offered, or to confirm if another shadow minister went in the Tory leader’s place, and was then unable to brief her because of the superinjunction.

    Downing Street refused to say if Starmer accepted the need for secrecy, but said the bar for such injunctions should be set “exceptionally high”. The prime minister’s press secretary said: “It should never be used to hide inconvenient facts or save ministers from embarrassment.” The data leak had highlighted “the total incompetence at the top of government” under the Conservatives, she added.

    Asked about calls for a full public inquiry into what happened, Starmer’s official spokesperson did not rule this out, but said it was “right that parliament is able to scrutinise this issue in the first instance”.

    News about the previously secret Afghanistan Response Route (ARR) emerged after a high court judge said the superinjuction had the effect of concealing discussions about spending “the sort of money which makes a material difference to government spending plans and is normally the stuff of political debate”.

    The ARR was created in haste after it emerged that personal information about 18,700 Afghans who had applied to come to the UK had been leaked in error by a British defence official in early 2022, potentially putting them at risk of reprisals from the Taliban.

    Ministers and officials at the Ministry of Defence learned of the breach in August 2023 after data was posted to a Facebook group, and applied to the high court for an injunction, the first sought by a British government – to prevent any further media disclosure.

    Setting out the details of the scheme to the Commons on Tuesday, John Healey, the defence secretary, said Labour would halt the ARR, which will cost a total of £850m and will help an estimated 6,900 people.

    The decision to end the scheme came after a review into the repercussions of the data leak, led by Paul Rimmer, a retired civil servant, said that the acquisition of the data by the Taliban was “unlikely to substantially change an individual’s existing exposure given the volume of data already available”. It was unlikely, Rimmer said, that “merely being on the dataset would be grounds for targeting”.

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  • Three dead, seven injured as passenger bus targeted in Balochistan’s Kalat

    Three dead, seven injured as passenger bus targeted in Balochistan’s Kalat

    The passenger bus that came under fire in Kalat, on July 16, 2025. — Reporter
    • Exact number of passengers on board bus remains unknown.
    • Police and FC personnel have cordoned off the area.
    • PM condemns incident; CM Bugti seeks incident report. 

    KALAT: At least three people were killed and seven others sustained injuries after unidentified assailants opened gunfire on a passenger coach travelling from Karachi to Quetta near a checkpost in Balochistan’s Kalat, police said on Wednesday.

    This is the second such attack in less than a week in the restive province, which has witnessed a deadly year with scores of fatalities due to terrorist attacks.

    The attack occurred when the bus approached Nemargh Cross near Kalat district. The assailants, who were waiting on top of nearby mountains, first opened fire and then hurled hand grenades at the vehicle.

    The vehicles that run on this route carry approximately 40 to 50 passengers. However, the exact number of passengers on board the targeted bus remains unknown.

    Speaking to Geo News, Balochistan government spokesperson, Shahid Rind noted that security agencies, district authorities, and rescue teams reached the scene immediately. The wounded were transferred to the Qalat DHQ Hospital, where an emergency has been declared.

    Security forces cordoned off the area and launched a search operation to pursue the assailants, Rind said, adding that the attackers are still at large. “Initial reports suggest that the attackers were waiting to strike. They closed the street from both sides,” he added.  

    Meanwhile, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has strongly condemned the terrorist incident, which he said was carried out by the Fitna al Hindustan — a term used for terrorist organisations in Balochistan.

    He offered prayers for the martyrs and extended his sympathies to the bereaved families, praying for patience and resilience during their difficult time.

    The PM also directed authorities to provide immediate medical assistance to the injured.

    He warned that terrorists targeting innocent, unarmed civilians would be made to pay a heavy price, vowing that perpetrators would not escape justice.

    Reiterating the government’s stance, the prime minister affirmed that both his administration and the country’s security forces were committed to eradicating terrorism from the nation.

    The attack came days after at least nine passengers travelling on two Punjab-bound coaches were abducted and killed by unidentified armed men in Sur-Dakai area, on the border between Balochistan’s Zhob and Loralai districts.

    Assistant Commissioner Zhob, Naveed Alam, said the attackers opened fire on the abducted passengers after taking them away from the vehicles, adding that the bodies were being transported to Rakhni for dispatch to their native towns in Punjab.

    Rind had said that Fitna al Hindustan had carried out the attacks.

    Balochistan Chief Minister Sarfaraz Bugti had declared that the killers of innocent civilians were not worthy of any mercy. “Those who murder innocent people will be hunted to the last man,” the chief minister said.


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  • Oseltamivir Significantly Reduces Mortality in Hospitalized Patients With Influenza

    Oseltamivir Significantly Reduces Mortality in Hospitalized Patients With Influenza

    A large, multicenter study published in JAMA Network Open adds compelling new data to support the use of oseltamivir (Tamiflu; Roche) in adults hospitalized with influenza. Involving 11,073 patients across 30 hospitals in Ontario from 2015 to 2023, the study used a target trial emulation framework to evaluate whether early oseltamivir administration (on hospital day 0 or 1) reduced in hospital mortality compared to supportive care alone. In hospital mortality was 3.5% in the oseltamivir group vs 4.9% in the supportive care group, an adjusted risk difference (aRD) of -1.8%. Time to discharge was also shorter in patients treated with oseltamivir, with an adjusted sub distribution hazard ratio of 1.20, indicating earlier discharge in the antiviral group. Thirty day readmissions were lower in the oseltamivir group compared to the supportive care group, with an aRD of -1.5%. Intensive care unit (ICU) transfers after 48 hours were also less common with oseltamivir treatment.1

    Image Credit: Stuart Monk | stock.adobe.com

    Early Antiviral Intervention

    Current US and Canadian recommendations call for antiviral treatment for all patients hospitalized with suspected or confirmed influenza, regardless of symptom duration. However, real world uptake has been inconsistent due to gaps in definitive data.2-3 This new study provides much needed clarity and reinforces the pharmacist’s role in ensuring early initiation of oseltamivir, preferably within the first hospital day to optimize outcomes. Pharmacists should also proactively identify high risk patients, such as older adults or those with chronic conditions, who are most likely to benefit from prompt antiviral therapy.1

    Oseltamivir is generally well tolerated but can cause adverse effects, most commonly gastrointestinal symptoms such as nausea and vomiting, and less frequently, neuropsychiatric effects.4 Pharmacists are uniquely positioned to monitor for these issues, adjust dosing in patients with renal impairment, and evaluate for drug to drug interactions that may arise during hospital stays.

    Given that the median age in the study population was 72.6 years old, vigilance is especially warranted in generic patients, who may also have comorbidities requiring complex medication regimens.1 Pharmacist-driven counseling, medication reconciliation, and discharge planning can help mitigate risks and ensure proper adherence post discharge.

    Reducing Readmissions & Optimizing Resource Use

    The study’s finding of reduced 30-day readmissions and shorter hospital stays aligns with broader health system goals such as cost containment and quality improvement. By preventing clinical deterioration and minimizing ICU transfers, early antiviral treatment contributes to more efficient use of hospital resources.1

    Pharmacists involved in transitions of care programs should reinforce the importance of adherence to antiviral regimens at discharge and educate patients and caregivers about symptom monitoring and follow up. These efforts may further reduce preventable readmissions and improve patient satisfaction.

    Conclusion

    This new evidence confirms that oseltamivir initiated within 2 days of admission provides a modest but significant mortality benefit in hospitalized patients with influenza, along with improvements in discharge timing and readmission rates. While randomized controlled trial data are still awaited, this large scale observational study offers strong support for current antiviral treatment guidelines.

    Pharmacists remain central to ensuring these recommendations are implemented consistently and safely across health systems.

    REFERENCES
    1. Bai AD, Al Baluki H, Srivastava S, et al. Oseltamivir treatment and outcomes in adults hospitalized with influenza: a target trial emulation using a multicenter cohort. JAMA Netw Open. 2025;8(6):e2514508. doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2025.14508
    2. Uyeki TM, Bernstein HH, Bradley JS, et al. Clinical practice guidelines by the Infectious Diseases Society of America: 2018 update on diagnosis, treatment, chemoprophylaxis, and institutional outbreak management of seasonal influenza. Clin Infect Dis. 2019;68(6):e1-e47. doi: 10.1093/cid/ciy866
    3. Public Health Agency of Canada. National Advisory Committee on Immunization (NACI): statement on seasonal influenza vaccine for 2024–2025. Accessed July 11, 2025. https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/publications/vaccines-immunization/national-advisory-committee-immunization-statement-seasonal-influenza-vaccine-2024-2025.html
    4. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Influenza antiviral medications: summary for clinicians. Updated December 15, 2022. Accessed July 11, 2025. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/hcp/antivirals/summary-clinicians.html?CDC_AAref_Val=https://www.cdc.gov/flu/professionals/antivirals/summary-clinicians.htm

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  • GDP, Trade, and FDI Highlights

    GDP, Trade, and FDI Highlights

    China’s economy grew 5.3 percent year‑on‑year in H1 2025, driven by robust industrial output, export strength, and targeted investment—though domestic consumption, real estate, and private investment lag behind.
    The key challenge ahead is turning headline momentum into sustained, broad‑based recovery, especially by boosting household demand and investor confidence amid external uncertainty.

    China’s economy expanded by 5.3 percent year-on-year in the first half of 2025, outperforming expectations and reflecting the country’s steady recovery momentum amid a volatile global environment. Official data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on July 15 showed that gross domestic product (GDP) reached RMB 66.05 trillion (approximately US$9.24 trillion) in the January–June period, with the second quarter growing by 5.2 percent year-on-year and 1.1 percent quarter-on-quarter. 

    Growth was broad-based, led by a 6.4 percent increase in industrial output and solid contributions from the services sector, which expanded 5.5 percent year-on-year. Meanwhile, retail sales grew by 5.0 percent, and fixed asset investment rose 2.8 percent over the same period, with a particular boost from manufacturing-related spending. Per capita disposable income also saw real gains, rising 5.4 percent after accounting for inflation. 

    These results mark a “hard-won achievement,” according to NBS Deputy Head Sheng Laiyun, given mounting external pressures in the second quarter and persistent uncertainty in the global economic environment. He emphasized that China’s proactive macroeconomic policies have underpinned stable progress and outperformance in several key indicators. 

    In this article, we take a closer look at China’s major economic indicators for the first half of 2025, assess the resilience of its growth drivers, and explore the risks and policy signals shaping expectations for the remainder of the year. 

    Explore vital economic, geographic, and regulatory insights for business investors, managers, or expats to navigate China’s business landscape. Our Online Business Guides offer explainer articles, news, useful tools, and videos from on-the-ground advisors who contribute to the Doing Business in China knowledge.
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    China’s economy in H1 2025: Key indicators 

    Manufacturing 

    China’s industrial sector continued to deliver steady growth in the first half of 2025, led by strong expansion in manufacturing, particularly in high-tech and equipment-related industries. The data reflects improving business activity, even as headline indicators point to mixed momentum across different segments of the economy. 

    The value-added output of industrial enterprises above the designated size (those with an annual main business income above RMB 20 million, or US$2.7 million) grew by 6.4 percent year-on-year in the first six months of 2025. Within the secondary sector: 

    • Manufacturing output expanded by 7.0 percent, remaining a key growth driver; 
    • Mining output increased by 6.0 percent; and 
    • Electricity, heat power, gas, and water production and supply rose by 1.9 percent year-on-year. 

    Notably, strategic sectors outperformed: 

    • Value-added output of equipment manufacturing grew 10.2 percent year-on-year; 
    • High-tech manufacturing expanded 9.5 percent year-on-year. 

    These growth rates outpaced the industrial average by 3.8 and 3.1 percentage points, respectively, highlighting ongoing upgrades to China’s industrial base. 

    The breakdown by ownership type revealed broad-based improvements across the board. State-holding enterprises experienced output growth of 4.2 percent, while shareholding enterprises expanded by 6.9 percent. Foreign-invested enterprises, including those from Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan, also saw growth of 4.3 percent. Private enterprises demonstrated strong performance with a 6.7 percent increase, reflecting a generally positive trend across different ownership structures.

    Production of key advanced manufacturing products also posted rapid gains: 

    • 3D printing devices: up 43.1 percent year-on-year; 
    • New energy vehicles (NEVs): up 36.2 percent year-on-year; 
    • Industrial robots: up 35.6 percent year-on-year. 

    In June alone, industrial output grew 6.8 percent year-on-year and 0.5 percent month-on-month, signaling a modest acceleration entering the second half of the year. 

    Meanwhile, business sentiment showed signs of cautious optimism. The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) in June rose slightly to 49.7 percent, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, though still below the expansion threshold of 50 percent. The Production and Operation Expectation Index stood at 52.0 percent, reflecting moderate confidence about short-term prospects.  

    However, industrial profitability remained under pressure. In the first five months of 2025, total profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size reached RMB 2.72 trillion (US$370.4 billion), representing a 1.1 percent decline year-on-year. 

    Services 

    China’s services sector sustained a stable recovery in the first half of 2025, supported by continued strength in technology-driven and business-oriented services. The pace of growth slightly accelerated compared to the first quarter, suggesting improved momentum across key sub-sectors. 

    In the first half of the year, the value-added output of the services sector increased by 5.5 percent year-on-year, up 0.2 percentage points from the first quarter. 

    Among major industries, the strongest growth was recorded in: 

    • Information transmission, software, and IT services: up 11.1 percent year-on-year; 
    • Leasing and business services: up 9.6 percent; 
    • Transport, storage, and postal services: up 6.4 percent; 
    • Wholesale and retail trade: up 5.9 percent. 

    In June, the Index of Services Production rose by 6.0 percent year-on-year, maintaining a solid growth trajectory. Notable gains were seen in: 

    • Information transmission, software, and IT services: up 11.6 percent; 
    • Leasing and business services: up 8.4 percent; 
    • Finance: up 7.3 percent; 
    • Wholesale and retail trade: up 6.9 percent. 

    Revenue figures further highlighted the sector’s resilience. In the first five months, business revenue of service enterprises above the designated size grew by 8.1 percent year-on-year, reflecting rising demand and improved operating conditions. 

    Service sector sentiment remained cautiously optimistic. In June, the Business Activity Index for Services stood at 50.1 percent, indicating mild expansion, while the Business Activity Expectation Index reached 56.0 percent, signaling positive outlooks among firms. 

    Several service industries reported strong expectations for future growth, particularly: 

    • Telecommunications, broadcasting, and satellite transmission; 
    • Internet software and IT services; 
    • Monetary and financial services; 

    These sectors remained in the high expansion range of 55.0 percent and above, reinforcing their role as key contributors to the digital and financial transformation of the Chinese economy. 

    Consumption and retail sales 

    China’s consumer market maintained a steady recovery in the first half of 2025, with retail sales growth picking up pace compared to the first quarter. Upgraded consumption categories, e-commerce, and services all contributed to an increasingly diversified consumption landscape, though household spending remained cautious amid structural headwinds. 

    In the first half of the year, total retail sales of consumer goods reached RMB 24.55 trillion (US$3.34 trillion), rising 5.0 percent year-on-year, an acceleration of 0.4 percentage points from the first quarter. 

    By region: 

    • Urban retail sales reached RMB 21.31 trillion (US$2.90 trillion), up 5.0 percent year-on-year; 
    • Rural retail sales reached RMB 3.24 trillion (US$441.1 billion), up 4.9 percent. 

    By consumption type: 

    • Retail sales of goods rose to RMB 21.80 trillion (US$2.97 trillion), up 5.1 percent; 
    • Catering revenue reached RMB 2.75 trillion (US$375 billion), up 4.3 percent. 

    Upgraded and essential consumption categories saw significant growth, especially among enterprises above the designated size. Grain, oil, and food products increased by 12.3 percent year-on-year, while sports and recreational goods surged 22.2 percent, and gold, silver, and jewelry rose 11.3 percent. The government’s consumer goods trade-in policy also helped drive spending in key areas, with household appliances and audio-visual equipment up 30.7 percent, cultural and office supplies rising 25.4 percent, communication equipment growing 24.1 percent, and furniture increasing 22.9 percent.

    Online consumption remained a powerful driver of retail growth. In the first half of the year, total online retail sales reached RMB 7.43 trillion (US$1.01 trillion), up 8.5 percent year-on-year. Of this, online sales of physical goodsrose to RMB 6.12 trillion (US$834.3 billion), up 6.0 percent, accounting for 24.9 percent of total retail sales.

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    In June alone, retail sales of consumer goods increased 4.8 percent year-on-year, though they dipped 0.16 percent month-on-month. Meanwhile, retail sales of services grew by 5.3 percent year-on-year in the first half of 2025, 0.3 percentage points faster than in the first quarter, underlining improved demand for travel, dining, entertainment, and other experience-based consumption. 

    Fixed asset investment 

    In the first half of 2025, China’s fixed asset investment (FAI) grew 2.8 percent to RMB 24.87 trillion (US$3.38 trillion). Excluding real estate, investment rose 6.6 percent, led by infrastructure (up 4.6 percent) and manufacturing (up 7.5 percent). Real estate investment fell sharply by 11.2 percent.

    Secondary industry investment surged 10.2 percent, primary rose 6.5 percent, while tertiary dropped 1.1 percent. Private investment slipped 0.6 percent overall but grew 5.1 percent excluding real estate.

    High-tech sectors saw strong gains, with information services up 37.4 percent and aerospace manufacturing rising 26.3 percent. The real estate market remained weak, with commercial building sales down 5.5 percent. Total FAI fell slightly by 0.12 percent in June.

    China’s H1 2025 trade: Robust June recovery, ASEAN and Africa lead growth 

    China’s foreign trade displayed unexpected resilience in the first half of 2025, supported by a notable rebound in June and strong performance across emerging markets. Data released by the General Administration of Customs (GAC) on July 15 highlights how diversified export strategies and key market shifts have helped stabilize trade momentum, even amid US tariff shocks and weakening global demand. 

    China Import-Export by Country/Region in Q1 2025 
    Time period Total Import & Export Value Total Export Value Total Import Value
    		 Trade Balance (Export – Import)
    June 535.6  325.2 210.4  114.8
    January-June Cumulative 3,032.0 1,809.0 1,223.0  586.0
    MoM Change in June (%) 1.3 145.81  -1.1  —
    YoY Change in June (%) 3.9 2.9 1.1  —
    Jan–June Cumulative YoY (%) 1.8  5.8 -3.9  —
    Source: General Administration of Customs, China 

    Strong June trade performance 

    June marked a turning point in China’s trade trajectory, with both exports and imports posting positive year-on-year growth. 

    • Exports rose 5.8 percent year-on-year, accelerating from May’s 4.8 percent;
    • Imports edged up 1.1 percent year-on-year, reversing three consecutive months of decline; and
    • The monthly trade surplus hit US$114.8 billion, up 16 percent year-on-year—the highest on record for June. 

    This trade performance significantly contributed to China’s Q2 surplus, which totaled US$314.2 billion, a 21.5 percent increase over the previous year. Preliminary estimates suggest net exports added over 1.3 percentage points to Q2 GDP growth, buffering the economy against sluggish domestic demand. 

    Stable growth, shifting partners 

    For the January–June period, China’s total goods trade value in RMB terms increased 2.9 percent year-on-year to RMB 21.79 trillion. Specifically: 

    • Exports totaled RMB 13 trillion, up 7.2 percent year-on-year; 
    • Imports fell 2.7 percent to RMB 8.79 trillion, though the June rebound signaled a potential recovery ahead. 

    Despite facing mounting external pressures, officials emphasized that the quality and structure of trade improved, underpinned by a stronger role for private enterprises. These accounted for 57.3 percent of all trade in H1 2025, with imports and exports up 7.3 percent year-on-year. 

    Notably, foreign-invested enterprises also extended their growth streak to a fifth consecutive quarter, recording a 2.4 percent increase in total trade. The number of active foreign-funded firms reached 75,000, the highest since 2021. 

    The US gap and ASEAN’s rise 

    While exports to the US dropped 10.7 percent year-on-year in H1 2025 (a US$25.7 billion decline), China’s trade with ASEAN, the EU, and Africa expanded sharply, effectively absorbing the shortfall. 

    • ASEAN exports surged 13 percent (+US$37.1 billion); 
    • EU exports rose 6.9 percent (+US$16.3 billion); 
    • African exports jumped 21.4 percent (+US$18.2 billion). 

    These trends intensified in June: 

    • Exports to ASEAN rose 16.8 percent year-on-year; 
    • Exports to Africa surged 31.8 percent year-on-year; 
    • Exports to the EU increased 7.6 percent year-on-year, although this marked the slowest pace in four months—possibly indicating early signs of trade friction; 
    • Exports to the US fell 16.1 percent year-on-year, a notable improvement from May’s 31.5 percent drop, bolstered by a 32.1 percent rebound month-on-month after a temporary tariff truce. 

    Sector highlights: Rare earths and industrial goods 

    Several product categories delivered outsized gains in June: 

    • Rare earth exports soared 60.3 percent year-on-year, reaching a record high as buyers stockpiled ahead of the August tariff deadline; 
    • Steel exports climbed over 10 percent, defying protectionist measures from the US, EU, Vietnam, and India; and 
    • Exports of integrated circuits, automobiles, and ships increased by 25.5 percent, 27.4 percent, and 11.9 percent, respectively. 

    Meanwhile, imports of soybean products (+10.4 percent) and crude oil (+7.4 percent) also rose, reflecting stronger commodity demand and potential restocking. 

    Strategic implications and outlook for China’s trade  

    Related Reading

    China’s ability to redirect exports toward ASEAN, Africa, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) partners underscores a growing diversification strategy in the face of geopolitical volatility. Trade with BRI economies totaled RMB 11.29 trillion in H1 2025, up 4.7 percent year-on-year, accounting for over half (51.8 percent) of China’s total trade. However, economists caution that export momentum may soften in the second half of the year as frontloaded shipments taper and US trade policy uncertainty persists.

    The brief détente reached in London in June, with China resuming rare earth exports and the US easing some tech curbs, is seen as fragile, with enforcement challenges on both sides. 

    President Trump’s threat of 40 percent tariffs on transshipments through Vietnam and revived visa and tech restrictions may further complicate China’s export strategies. Notably, China’s exports to Vietnam soared 23.8 percent in June, reinforcing speculation about rerouting tactics amid the tariff war. 

    chart visualization

    Foreign direct investment trends 

    Foreign direct investment (FDI) into China remained structurally resilient through the first part of 2025, even as headline inflows moderated. While full H1 data is not yet available, figures from the January to May period offer a solid indicator of investor sentiment and directional trends. 

    In the first five months of the year, 24,018 new foreign-invested enterprises were established, marking a 10.4 percent year-on-year increase. However, actual utilized FDI reached RMB 358.2 billion (US$49.93 billion), down 13.2 percent from the same period last year. This divergence points to a shift in foreign investor priorities toward long-term structural positioning, rather than short-term capital deployment. 

    The services sector remained the dominant magnet for foreign capital, attracting RMB 259.6 billion (US$36.19 billion), or more than 72 percent of total FDI. High-tech industries saw continued inflows, with standout growth in: 

    • E-commerce services (+146 percent); 
    • Aerospace equipment manufacturing (+74.9 percent); and 
    • Chemical pharmaceuticals (+59.2 percent). 

    Geopolitically, China remained an attractive destination for investors across both developed and emerging economies. Inflows from ASEAN rose by 20.5 percent, while investments from Japan and the UK surged by 70.2 percent and 60.9 percent, respectively. South Korea and Germany also posted modest gains. 

    While full H1 FDI figures are pending, the January-May data reflects ongoing sectoral rebalancing and policy-driven realignment in China’s investment landscape. 

    How to read China’s economic data in H1 2025? 

    Related Reading

    China’s first-half economic data paints a picture of solid headline growth, but one that is not without its underlying tensions. The country’s 5.3 percent year-on-year GDP growth offers reassurance that the government is on track to meet its full-year target of “around 5 percent.” Yet, much of this expansion has been powered by industrial output and external demand, rather than the broad-based domestic recovery policymakers have been hoping to cultivate. 

    Consumption, while improving modestly, has not rebounded with the same strength seen in production and exports. Retail sales rose 5.0 percent year-on-year in H1, slightly faster than in Q1, but signs of consumer caution persist, particularly in big-ticket and discretionary spending. Real estate, traditionally a pillar of the economy and household wealth, continues to weigh heavily on sentiment. With property investment down 11.2 percent and sales of new commercial housing shrinking, the drag from the sector is far from over. 

    Meanwhile, private investment — a bellwether of market confidence — fell 0.6 percent in H1, and foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows have been tepid. According to the Ministry of Commerce, actualized FDI in China fell 28.2 percent year-on-year in the first five months of 2025, underscoring lingering concerns among global investors about policy predictability, weak demand, and geopolitical risk. 

    Nevertheless, the manufacturing upgrade and tech transition story remains a bright spot. Investment in high-tech manufacturing, especially in areas like aerospace, semiconductors, and information services, showed strong double-digit growth. This suggests that industrial policy support is yielding results, and could act as a future growth lever — if it is paired with stronger domestic consumption and sustained business confidence. 

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    Looking ahead, the Chinese government may find itself walking a fine line between maintaining stability and delivering stimulus. Authorities have so far refrained from launching large-scale fiscal or monetary easing, opting instead for targeted measures — such as consumer trade-in subsidies and relaxed property purchase restrictions — to address pockets of weakness. But with youth unemployment remaining elevated, deflationary pressures still lingering in parts of the economy, and global demand facing uncertainty, more coordinated policy support may be needed to sustain momentum in the second half. 

    In sum, while China’s economic engine remains on track, its forward motion continues to be uneven. The challenge for the remainder of 2025 will be to broaden the base of recovery, restoring confidence across households, private firms, and foreign investors alike — and ensuring that growth is not just faster, but also more balanced and resilient. 

     

    About Us

    China Briefing is one of five regional Asia Briefing publications, supported by Dezan Shira & Associates. For a complimentary subscription to China Briefing’s content products, please click here.

    Dezan Shira & Associates assists foreign investors into China and has done so since 1992 through offices in Beijing, Tianjin, Dalian, Qingdao, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Ningbo, Suzhou, Guangzhou, Haikou, Zhongshan, Shenzhen, and Hong Kong. We also have offices in Vietnam, Indonesia, Singapore, United States, Germany, Italy, India, and Dubai (UAE) and partner firms assisting foreign investors in The Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand, Bangladesh, and Australia. For assistance in China, please contact the firm at china@dezshira.com or visit our website at www.dezshira.com.

     

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  • Former Top Google Researchers Have Made A New Kind of AI Agent

    Former Top Google Researchers Have Made A New Kind of AI Agent

    A new kind of artificial intelligence agent, trained to understand how software is built by gorging on a company’s data and learning how this leads to an end product, could be both a more capable software assistant and a small step towards much smarter AI.

    The new agent, called Asimov, was developed by Reflection, a small but ambitious startup confounded by top AI researchers from Google. Asimov reads code as well as emails, Slack messages, project updates and other documentation with the goal of learning how all this leads together to produce a finished piece of software.

    Reflection’s ultimate goal is building superintelligent AI—something that other leading AI labs say they are working towards. Meta recently created a new Superintelligence Lab, promising huge sums to researchers interested in joining its new effort.

    I visited Reflection’s headquarters in the Brooklyn neighborhood of Williamsburg, New York, just across the road from a swanky-looking pickleball club, to see how Reflection plans to reach superintelligence ahead of the competition.

    The company’s CEO, Misha Laskin, says the ideal way to build supersmart AI agents is to have them truly master coding, since this is the simplest, most natural way for them to interact with the world. While other companies are building agents that use human user interfaces and browse the web, Laskin, who previously worked on Gemini and agents at Google DeepMind, says this hardly comes naturally to a large language model. Laskin adds that teaching AI to make sense of software development will also produce much more useful coding assistants.

    Laskin says Asimov is designed to spend more time reading code rather than writing it. “Everyone is really focusing on code generation,” he told me. “But how to make agents useful in a team setting is really not solved. We are in kind of this semi-autonomous phase where agents are just starting to work.”

    Asimov actually consists of several smaller agents inside a trench coat. The agents all work together to understand code and answer users’ queries about it. The smaller agents retrieve information, and one larger reasoning agent synthesizes this information into a coherent answer to a query.

    Reflection claims that Asimov already is perceived to outperform some leading AI tools by some measures. In a survey conducted by Reflection, the company found that developers working on large open source projects who asked questions preferred answers from Asimov 82 percent of the time compared to 63 percent for Anthropic’s Claude Code running its model Sonnet 4.

    Daniel Jackson, a computer scientist at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, says Reflection’s approach seems promising given the broader scope of its information gathering. Jackson adds, however, that the benefits of the approach remain to be seen, and the company’s survey is not enough to convince him of broad benefits. He notes that the approach could also increase computation costs and potentially create new security issues. “It would be reading all these private messages,” he says.

    Reflection says the multiagent approach mitigates computation costs and that it makes use of a secure environment that provides more security than some conventional SaaS tools.

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  • Rotary club partners with WSU’s rabies control program | WSU Insider

    Rotary club partners with WSU’s rabies control program | WSU Insider

    A local Rotary club is bolstering Washington State University’s effort to limit rabies deaths in Kenya and Tanzania – a 10-year commitment by the university that has just surpassed 3 million dogs vaccinated against the virus.

    WSU’s Rabies Free Africa program, housed within the College of Veterinary Medicine’s Paul G. Allen School for Global Health, has long partnered with communities in the two rabies endemic African nations to eliminate the virus. According to the World Health Organization, rabies causes at least 59,000 deaths annually — primarily from infected dog bites and scratches — with children accounting for half of the victims.

    The partnership was a dream for the South Puget Sound Rotary Club of Olympia. Rotary club President Dave Lovely, along with club member and retired veterinarian Dr. Mike Murphy, visited Tanzania for 11 days in May when WSU led a four-day mass rabies vaccination of more than 2,700 dogs.

    “It’s really a powerful thing to see and be a part of because it truly, truly is saving lives of dogs, wildlife, and people,” Murphy said. “Considering nearly half of rabies infected dog bites are to children, it’s so compelling, and it really doesn’t take many dollars to do an awful lot of good.”

    The rabies vaccines administered through the program are donated by manufacturer Merck Animal Health, but the support of the South Puget Sound Rotary Club of Olympia helped cover the cost of vaccine import taxes, rabies vaccination certificates, and promotional posters and materials for the program’s mass dog vaccinations. The money was raised through fundraising activities of the South Puget Sound Rotary club and a matching grant donation from Rotary District 5020, a part of the Rotary Foundation

    South Puget Sound Rotary Club of Olympia president Dave Lovely (left) and retired veterinarian and Rotary Club member Dr. Mike Murphy pose with a member of WSU’s Rabies Free Africa program ahead of a mass dog vaccination in Tanzania (photo courtesy of Dave Lovely, president of the South Puget Sound Rotary Club of Olympia).

    In addition to the number of dogs and miles their owners walked to get them to the vaccination sites, Murphy said it’s the commitment by the local Tanzanians employed through the WSU program that sticks with him.

    “Even after everything was closed up and we’re leaving, a little girl showed up with a dog and they unpacked everything to vaccinate that dog, and that was after they vaccinated 400 dogs that day,” Murphy said. “It was really quite a special opportunity for us to experience their world, all the good they do, and how dedicated they are.”

    With the four-day mass dog vaccination event behind them, Murphy and Lovely are looking for other ways to support the WSU rabies program. Using their Rotary network, Lovely is working with the local Tanzanian Rotary club of Arusha to apply for a global Rotary grant.

    “They’re very experienced at doing global grants and managing global grant projects, so we’re very optimistic that we’ll be able to pull off a larger project,” Lovely said. “We want to really make a big impact.” 

    The global grant is a bigger effort, requiring a more in-depth project plan and promotion of the project with other Rotary clubs to amplify the work that is being done. Global grants have a minimum budget of $30,000 and a maximum award of $400,000.

    Murphy, who was a rabies inspector in Chambers County, Alabama, before he ever went to veterinary school, said rabies can be controlled, and it begins with supporting the cause.

    “Rabies is still a real disease, but in the United States it is nothing like Africa and Southeast Asia because we have large scale vaccination programs, and that’s what WSU is duplicating around the world,” Murphy said.

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  • Energy Drinks Seen Fuelling Cancer, But There’s a Strange Catch : ScienceAlert

    Energy Drinks Seen Fuelling Cancer, But There’s a Strange Catch : ScienceAlert

    Energy drinks are big business. Marketed as quick fixes for fatigue and performance dips, energy drinks are especially popular among young people, athletes, sports enthusiasts, and so-called “weekend warriors” – people who pack their workouts into the weekend instead of exercising regularly. Gamers are now a major target too.

    But as the market grows, so do concerns about what’s actually in these drinks – and what these ingredients might be doing to our bodies.

    Many energy drinks contain some combination of three familiar stimulants: caffeine, found naturally in coffee, tea and cacao; guarana, an Amazonian plant rich in caffeine; and taurine, a naturally occurring amino acid found in scallops, mussels, turkey and chicken.

    Related: Scientists Discover Unexpected Link Between Diet And Lung Cancer Risk

    Taurine, in particular, has drawn both hype and hope. It is credited with performance-enhancing properties and potential health benefits. But new research is raising important questions about how it behaves in the body – and when it might do more harm than good.

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    In May 2025, a study published in Nature sparked headlines and unease in equal measure. It found that taurine may fuel the progression of leukaemia, a group of blood cancers that begin in the bone marrow.

    The study showed that while healthy bone marrow cells naturally produce taurine, leukaemia cells cannot. But they can absorb taurine from their surroundings and use it as a fuel source to grow and multiply.

    Research on mice and in human leukaemia cell samples demonstrated that taurine in the tumour microenvironment – the area around a tumour that includes blood vessels, immune cells and structural support – accelerated the progression of leukaemia.

    Crucially, when researchers blocked taurine uptake by leukaemia cells (using genetic techniques), cancer progression slowed significantly. The authors suggest taurine supplements could potentially worsen outcomes in people with leukaemia and propose that developing targeted ways to block taurine uptake by cancer cells might offer a new treatment strategy.

    Taurine: friend or foe?

    Taurine is one of the most abundant free amino acids in the human body, found in especially high concentrations in the heart, muscles and brain. In healthy people, it’s mainly obtained through diet, but the body can also synthesise taurine from the amino acids methionine and cysteine, provided it has enough vitamin B6, which is found in foods such as salmon, tuna, chicken, bananas and milk.

    Most people consuming a typical western diet take in 40mg–400mg of taurine a day from food alone. This figure refers only to taurine that is directly ingested, not including the additional amount the body can synthesise internally, which may vary depending on age, diet and health.

    Taurine is listed on the Food and Drug Administration’s (FDA’s) generally recognised as safe (GRAS) database, and according to the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA), it’s safe to consume up to six grams per day. By comparison, a serving of Red Bull or Monster contains around one gram – comfortably below that threshold.

    Despite recent concerns about a possible link to blood cancer progression, taurine isn’t inherently harmful. In fact, some people may benefit from supplementation, especially those receiving long-term parenteral nutrition, where nutrients are delivered directly into the bloodstream because the gut isn’t working properly.

    People with chronic liver, kidney or heart failure may also have trouble producing or holding on to enough taurine, making supplementation helpful in specific clinical settings.

    Ironically, some research suggests taurine may actually help reduce the side effects of chemotherapy in leukaemia patients – even as emerging studies raise concerns that it could also fuel the disease.

    This contradiction underscores how much context matters: the effects of taurine depend not just on dosage and delivery, but also on the patient’s underlying condition. What helps in one context, could harm in another.

    But here’s the catch: taking taurine as a supplement for particular health reasons is very different from consuming large quantities through energy drinks, which often combine taurine with high levels of caffeine and sugar.

    This combination can put strain on the heart, interfere with sleep and increase the risk of side effects, particularly for people with underlying health conditions or those taking other stimulants.

    The latest research raises important questions about whether taurine-heavy products could be harmful in some cases, especially for people with, or at risk of, blood cancers.

    So, should you worry?

    According to the current evidence, if you’re a healthy adult who occasionally sips an energy drink, there’s little cause for alarm. But moderation is key.

    Consuming multiple high-taurine drinks daily or taking taurine supplements (without prior professional consultation), on top of a taurine-rich diet might not be wise, especially if future research confirms links between taurine and cancer progression.

    Until more is known, the safest approach would be to enjoy your energy boosts by consuming a nutritious diet rather than consuming energy drinks. If you have any underlying health conditions – or a family history of cancer – it’s always best to consult a healthcare professional before diving into taurine supplementation or consumption of energy drinks.The Conversation

    Gulshanara (Rumy) Begum, Senior Lecturer in Nutrition & Exercise Science, University of Westminster

    This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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  • What retaliatory action is the EU planning over Trump’s tariffs? | Donald Trump News

    What retaliatory action is the EU planning over Trump’s tariffs? | Donald Trump News

    The European Union is readying a package of tariffs to be levied on 72 billion euros’ ($84bn) worth of goods against the US, even as it steps up efforts to reach a trade deal and avert a transatlantic trade war with President Donald Trump.

    The European Commission, which oversees EU trade policy, is understood to have drawn up a list of duties for various US imports, ranging from cars to bourbon, after Trump declared on Sunday that he would levy a 30 percent “reciprocal” tariff on European imports from August 1.

    The EU and the US have been locked in trade negotiations for months, after Trump set a reciprocal tariff of 20 percent on EU goods in April. Those were dropped to 10 percent shortly afterwards, pending a three-month pause, before the president’s latest 30 percent salvo.

    Following Trump’s announcement, French and German government bond prices fell to lows seldom seen since the eurozone debt crisis of 2009-11, as traders fretted about whether the $1.7 trillion transatlantic trade relationship could remain intact.

    What tariffs has Trump announced for the EU?

    President Trump said he would impose a 30 percent tariff on goods imports from the EU starting on August 1. He says he wants to rebalance the $235.6bn trade deficit – whereby imports exceed exports – that the US has with the EU.

    EU officials had been hoping they could limit the damage by agreeing a baseline tariff of about 10 percent – the level of the one currently in place – with additional carve-outs for key sectors like cars. But Trump’s recent announcement, which came via a letter, dashed those hopes.

    Trump has sent similar letters to 23 other trading partners over the past eight days, including Canada, Japan and Brazil, setting blanket tariff rates ranging from 20 percent to 50 percent, as well as a blanket 50 percent tariff on copper imports from all countries.

    Earlier this year, Trump also slapped a 25 percent tariff on European steel and aluminium as well as cars, in an effort to reduce US dependence on imports and encourage more domestic production.

    In response to that, the EU announced retaliatory tariffs on $23.8bn worth of US goods (totalling 6 percent of US imports), with EU officials describing the US tariffs as “unjustified and damaging”. The implementation of these EU tariffs was delayed, however, as a gesture of goodwill during ongoing trade talks.

    On April 7, the head of the European Commission, Ursula Von der Leyen, offered Trump an alternative in the form of a zero-for-zero tariffs deal on industrial goods, including cars. But Trump said her proposal did not address US concerns about the trade deficit.

    How has the EU responded to the new US tariff?

    Von der Leyen has previously indicated that the 27-member bloc will continue negotiating until the August 1 deadline.

    On Monday, however, the EU commissioner for trade, Maros Sefcovic, said there was still a “big gap” between the two sides and it would be “almost impossible to continue the trading as we are used to in a transatlantic relationship”, with the new 30 percent rate. “Practically, it prohibits the trade,” he said.

    The EU, therefore, is now readying retaliatory tariffs in the event that talks break down before the deadline, Sefcovic said. “We have to protect the EU economy, and we need to go for these rebalancing measures.”

    Before a meeting with EU ministers to discuss trade, he told reporters: “Therefore I think we have to do, and I will definitely do, everything I can to prevent this super-negative scenario.”

    The EU’s latest tariff list, which covers 72 billion euros’ ($84bn) worth of goods, has been seen by Politico and Bloomberg.

    Though tariff rates are as yet unknown, they will apply to 11 billion euros’ ($13bn) worth of US aircraft and parts. Other items include cars, machinery, electrical products and chemicals.

    The list also covers agricultural products, including fruit and vegetables, as well as alcoholic drinks, such as bourbon and rum. Looking ahead, the Commission’s trade policy committee will have to formally approve the list before any retaliatory measures can be applied.

    The bloc is understood to be rife with disagreement over US trade, however. While Germany has urged a quick deal to safeguard its industries, other EU members – particularly France – insist that EU negotiators must not cave in to an “asymmetric” deal in favour of the US.

    On Monday, Danish Foreign Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen told reporters in Brussels it was too early to impose countermeasures, “but we should prepare to be ready to use all the tools”. He added: “If you want peace, you have to prepare for war. And I think that’s where we are.”

    What and how much does Europe sell to the US?

    In 2024, the US-EU goods trade reached nearly $1 trillion, making the EU the biggest trading partner of the US.

    Overall, the US bought $235.6bn more in goods than it sold to the 27 countries that make up the EU. Trump has made no secret of wanting to reduce that trade deficit. On the other hand, the US earns a surplus on services with the EU.

    The US mainly buys pharmaceutical products from the EU, as well as mechanical appliances, cars and other non-railway vehicles – totalling roughly $606bn. The US alone accounts for 21 percent of EU goods exports.

    For its part, the US mainly exports fuel, pharmaceutical products, machinery and aircraft to the EU – to the tune of some $370bn.

    How would tariffs affect the US and Europe’s economies?

    Economists at Barclays estimate that a US tariff on EU goods of 35 percent, covering both reciprocal and sectoral duties, along with a combined 10 percent theoretical retaliation from Brussels, would shave 0.7 percent from the eurozone output, lowering it to just 0.4 percent annual growth.

    This could derail much of the eurozone’s already meagre growth. The EU struggled to regain its footing in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the surge in energy prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has added to the strain.

    The economic forecasting consultancy, Oxford Economics, estimated on Monday that a 30 percent tariff could push the EU “to the edge of recession”.

    An April estimate, meanwhile, by German economic institute IW, found that reciprocal and sectoral tariffs ranging from 20 percent to 50 percent would cost Germany’s 4.3 trillion euro ($5 trillion) economy – the largest in the Eurozone – more than 200 billion ($232bn) euros between now and 2028.

    “We would have to postpone large parts of our economic policy efforts because it would interfere with everything and hit the German export industry to the core,” German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said of the potential US 30 percent reciprocal rate.

    Meanwhile, countermeasures from the EU would hit certain US industries hard. As Europe is a top-five market for US agriculture (particularly soya and corn), European tariffs could reduce US farm incomes and anger a key Trump constituency. The same is also true for the auto and plane parts sectors.

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  • How Spotify Can Solve Songwriters’ Low Payment Crisis (Guest Column)

    How Spotify Can Solve Songwriters’ Low Payment Crisis (Guest Column)

    Spotify didn’t break the system on its own. It inherited it. And like any smart startup walking into a rigged game, it played to survive — cutting deals, kissing rings, and keeping quiet. But now it’s no longer the underdog. It’s the house. And the same old rules that built its empire are the ones still starving songwriters.

    So the question is: will Daniel Ek change the game, or keep cashing out?

    Spotify didn’t solely cause the songwriter crisis — the disappearing royalty checks, the broken splits, the vanishing middle class of music creators — but it sits right in the center of it. And that’s exactly why Ek is the one person with the power to fix it. He didn’t ask for the problem, but it’s on his doorstep. And he’s finally rich and independent enough to do something about it.

    Let’s be honest: Spotify didn’t rise because of cozy deals — it rose in spite of them. Ek built a global tech giant with sharp strategy, relentless vision, and a little help from the majors, who handed over equity in exchange for early access. That bet paid off — for Spotify.

    With a market cap now topping $145 billion, Spotify is worth more than most of the companies it licenses music from. Universal is valued at $56B. Warner? Just over $15.5 billion. And Ek? He’s sold more than $800 million in stock since 2023 alone — more than many of the songwriters on the platform have made combined. That’s not just a bad look. It’s a stat you can’t explain away.

    Yes, he earned it. He helped assemble the biggest music library on earth. But when the guy holding the keys to the industry cashes out like a Silicon Valley titan while songwriters are still being paid like baristas, something’s broken. Ek’s net worth is closing in on $10 billion according to Bloomberg’s Billionaires Index. He can afford to lead — and it won’t cost him much to do it.

    Still, to this point, Spotify’s recent decisions have made an adversary out of the songwriter class. The company took on significant criticism in the business last year for electing to pay out less to songwriters through a controversial bundling strategy with audiobooks, a move that caused the Mechanical Licensing Collective to sue the company. Spotify emerged victorious in that legal dispute earlier this year as the suit was dismissed. The NMPA stated back in June that the strategy has already cost publishers $230 million so far. Spotify, for its part, said earlier this year that it has paid $4.5 billion in royalties to songwriters and publishers in the past two years.

    Bundling is the latest blow to the writer’s demise. Spotify’s push to boost subscribers by packaging music with audiobooks may help its bottom line, but it drags songwriter royalties down with it. When music becomes just one piece of a discounted bundle, the revenue attributed to it shrinks — and so do the mechanical payments. Songwriters aren’t just getting the smallest slice of the pie; now the pie itself is smaller. It’s a textbook case of the system working for growth, but not for the people who make the product.

    Bundles aside, Spotify needs to take on songwriters’ lousy terms because everyone else is compromised. Legacy music companies benefit from the current model and are mired in conflicts by housing both record labels and publishers’ interests. To that end, the publishers, representing songwriters, answer to their bosses, the people overseeing the record companies. Less a push-and-pull than a noose where one side is looking to maximize profits by minimizing payouts to the ancillary non-artist players that their colleagues represent. Their fate is tied and it leaves over 100,000 songwriters without an unencumbered advocate at the table.

    All three major music conglomerates — Universal, Sony and Warner — have had equity in Spotify, with Warner selling all of its Spotify shares in 2018 for over $500 million while Sony sold half of its shares for $750 million . How do they determine payouts for artists on their roster? Via a complicated formula which aggregates the whole of streaming activity and apportions a sum to rightsholders by their percentage of market share. In this pro-rata model, the top 1 percent of artists earn more than 90 percent of total streaming revenue. From there, it’s on the labels and publishers to assess earnings based on individual deals. In recent years, both Spotify itself (via its Spotify for Artists service) and many labels have instituted dashboards that are meant to provide transparency to the artist when it comes to accounting. No two deals are the same.  

    How did we get here? Let’s rewind. When the streaming wars began around the early 2010s, the music business perked up. There was no way the industry would blow it a third time — after fumbling Napster and handing Apple’s iTunes the keys to the kingdom for 99 cents a song — this time, they swore they’d get it right.

    So they played hard to get. The big players watched the in-fighting between nascent services to see who would gobble up the other. They slapped a chastity belt on their song catalogs and made tech beg for access. And when Spotify emerged as the dragon-slaying supplicant of the new world order and came calling, music squeezed several years and every crumb on the plate to close a collective deal— not just for licensing fees, but ownership stakes in Ek’s startup to the tune of 20%. The majors didn’t just agree to terms; they jumped right into bed with the shotgun wedding already on the books. 

    Now they’re shareholders, controlling nearly three-quarters of what got streamed in 2024 — a decrease from 1994, when six majors controlled over 85% of the airwaves. But two factors define the difference: back then, there was no streaming partner taking 30%, and there are still only 100 pennies in a dollar.

    The tech giants don’t need music to survive. But Spotify? It only works if the song does. The service doesn’t own many music copyrights or control catalogs. Spotify is not beholden to or defensive of the past. Spotify’s premium users are in effect renting the songs. Even if a listener downloads a track off the platform, it will be wiped from their library once they cease subscribing monthly.  

    Spotify is reaching the age of puberty and still has the chaos and creativity of a teenager — the kind who might wreck the car or rewrite the rules. That’s not a liability. That’s the X factor. They can be  the company that finally fixes this and changes the financial trajectory of songwriters forever. And no one else is even trying.

    If Spotify were to use just 3 percent of its 2024 net profit (around $39 million)  to boost payouts for qualifying songwriters, it wouldn’t be life-changing for most, but it could cover, say, health insurance, which neither record companies nor publishers provide. But what about this: 

    If Spotify truly wanted to change the economics of music forever, it should grant 1 percent ownership in the company to songwriters. That 1 percent shifts the entire landscape — not symbolically, structurally.  A 1 percent equity stake — worth over $1.45 billion —  could be placed into an irrevocable 30-year trust, designed and governed by a writer-led organization in partnership with labels, PROs, and publishers. This isn’t a Washington lobbying arm, but an industry-rooted, cooperative body with shared oversight and aligned interests. The trust would be repaid gradually through revenue generated by writers themselves, supported by proportional contributions from labels, pubs, PROs and all broadcast platforms–essentially all entities who profit from the use of songs. 

    Managed at a conservative 5 percent annual yield, it could generate $72.5 million a year — enough to finally fund the kind of infrastructure writers have always deserved. With just a third of that, 50,000 eligible writers could receive basic health coverage, career services, a 401(k), even access to a songwriter-focused credit union. The rest could support emergency relief, innovation grants, and profit-sharing. After 30 years, full ownership of the stake would transfer to the songwriter community outright. Not a payout. A future — built by the people who power the product.

    Here’s the other unspoken truth: songwriters aren’t built for battle at the moment. Some are loners. Most don’t have managers. They aren’t on stage with a mic and a fanbase ready to fight for them. They’re not organized to collectively bargain and are often invisible in the food chain. So with no one fighting for their cut and no fairy dust  to add more pennies to the dollar, they’ve been left on the bench like a third-string punter in the game they created.

    It’s all about the song. Always has been, always will be. No producers, no artists, no studios — and no Spotify — without the song. If Spotify ascends, the rest must follow suit. This isn’t welfare — it’s an overdue music industry wellness renovation that could fix the leaky roof but for good. I am not saying Ek should fund the entire ecosystem — just  take the first step: Commit to standing up and staying in. Don’t drain the golden goose and cash out; pony up hard, and become the company that saved music. The solution is clear, realistic and within reach. And the shareholders will love it. Music history is legacy and the opportunity to seize yours, Daniel, is right there in the bridge.

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  • UK insurance industry wins lower capital requirements for in-house risk managers – Financial Times

    UK insurance industry wins lower capital requirements for in-house risk managers – Financial Times

    1. UK insurance industry wins lower capital requirements for in-house risk managers  Financial Times
    2. Joint statement by the PRA and FCA on HM Treasury’s captive insurance consultation response  Bank of England
    3. Solvency capital rules and tax to drive UK captive onshoring  The Insurer
    4. Industry responds to UK captive insurance reforms  Insurance Business America
    5. UK Government confirms plans for captive insurance regime  Captive International

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