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So what has caused the price of cocoa and milk to shoot up?

Extreme weather caused by climate change has hit cocoa farmers’ crop yields in Africa, says Ghadafi Razak, an academic at Warwick Business School.

Extreme rainfall in India, Brazil and Thailand in 2023, followed by droughts the following year have meant poor harvests in those countries too, pushing up prices.

The extra costs take time to feed through to customers, says Christian Jaccarini, a senior food analyst at the Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit think tank, which means those extra costs are hitting shop shelves now.

“It takes about 18 months for the impact of a shock to be felt by consumers, so we still have quite a long time with higher prices for chocolate,” he said.

Milk prices have shot up too. Diarmaid Mac Colgáin, founder of the Concept Dairy consultancy blames the rising cost of feed, fuel and fertilisers as well as farmers facing higher wage bills and production costs.

He says some brands have substituted palm oil and shea oil for some of the milk to make up the fat content of their chocolate.

Pakistan’s Sensitive Price Index (SPI) for the week ended December 11, 2025, registered a year-on-year increase of 3.90%, reflecting persistent inflationary pressures on essential commodities despite a marginal weekly decline of 0.03%, according to the latest data from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS).

The combined SPI, based on 2015-16=100 and tracking 51 essential items across 50 markets in 17 cities, stood at 335.73 points, down from 335.84 points the previous week. This slight easing offers tentative relief to households grappling with elevated costs, particularly in urban centres where food and energy prices dominate expenditure baskets. However, the YoY uptick underscores broader economic challenges, including supply chain disruptions and fiscal adjustments, with sugar and gas charges emerging as key drivers.

Week-on-week, prices of 12 items (23.53%) rose, 10 (19.61%) fell, and 29 (56.86%) remained stable. The sharpest declines were in tomatoes (-16.18%), sugar (-4.91%), onions (-4.08%), and potatoes (-1.71%), alleviating some food bill burdens for lower-income groups. Conversely, chicken surged 6.19% amid seasonal demand, followed by wheat flour (2.88%) and eggs (0.93%), signalling volatility in protein and staple categories. Cooking oil (5 litres) and vegetable ghee (2.5 kg) edged up 0.72% and 0.70%, respectively, while tea prepared and powdered milk saw modest gains of 0.56% and 0.39%.

On a YoY basis, the 3.90% rise was fuelled by sugar (30.28%), gas charges for Q1 (29.85%), wheat flour (21.59%), and gur (14.96%), highlighting sustained hikes in sweeteners and utilities. Beef climbed 13.42%, firewood 12.86%, and diesel 8.42%, exacerbating transport and heating costs. Positive offsets included potatoes (-42.59%), tomatoes (-40.75%), garlic (-37.46%), and onions (-30.23%), with pulse gram dropping 28.95% due to improved harvests.

Disparities across consumption quintiles paint a nuanced picture: the lowest-income group (Q1, up to Rs17,732 monthly) faced a steeper YoY decline of 0.26% but a milder YoY rise of 3.01%, compared to Q5 (above Rs44,175), which saw a 0.02% WoW gain and 3.47% YoY increase. Overall, Q3 posted the highest YoY at 4.08%, underscoring regressive impacts on middle-class budgets.

Historical trends reveal moderation: the combined SPI has eased from a 4.00% YoY in early December to 3.90%, down from peaks above 5% in October. Quarterly data for Q4 2025-26 shows Q1 SPI at 317.38, up 5.68% QoQ but only 2.08% YoY, suggesting stabilising rural-urban dynamics.

Economists view the dip as a welcome breather, potentially signalling harvest gluts in perishables, but warn of upside risks from global commodity volatility and impending energy tariff revisions.