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Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE:TSM) shares have seen modest pressure recently, closing at $286.50 and posting a 6% dip over the past month. Investors may be watching closely for catalysts, as the company’s longer-term gains remain strong.

See our latest analysis for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing.

This latest dip comes after a strong run for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, with momentum fading slightly in recent weeks. Even so, the company’s year-to-date share price return remains an impressive 42%, and its one-year total shareholder return of nearly 44% highlights the broader growth story at play.

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With shares pulling back despite robust performance metrics, the debate is on: is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing trading below its true value, or are investors already factoring in all the future growth potential at current prices?

With a fair value set at $310 and the stock closing at $286.50, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing is seen as having more room to run, according to oscargarcia’s widely followed narrative. The gap between the current price and narrative fair value reflects bullish expectations for strong growth and relentless execution.

TSMC is the central pillar of the global semiconductor ecosystem, powering the AI revolution with unmatched scale, cutting-edge process technology, and disciplined execution. With record profits, dominant client base, and massive expansion underway, both in Taiwan and abroad, it stands as a low-risk way to own the AI infrastructure wave. Although geopolitical and trade risks loom, its moat, margins, and market position offer a rare combination of growth, profitability, and stability.

Read the complete narrative.

What powers this valuation premium? Dive into the details to see which blockbuster earnings figures, surging revenue projections, and ironclad margins shape this bold target. One key assumption could surprise you. Find out what drives this number behind the scenes.

Result: Fair Value of $310 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.

However, challenges such as rising costs from global expansion and heightened geopolitical tensions could quickly shift sentiment away from the current bullish view.

Find out about the key risks to this Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing narrative.

Looking at Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing through the lens of our SWS DCF model provides a different perspective. The DCF estimate of fair value is $247.94, which is noticeably below the current price. This suggests the market might be leaning optimistic, or that growth may already be fully reflected in the price.

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 869 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match – so you never miss a potential opportunity.

If you see the story differently or want to dig deeper into the numbers yourself, you can craft your own investment view in just a few minutes. Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include TSM.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

• CSV Midstream Solutions Corp. recently announced the commissioning of the Albright Gas Plant near Kelt Exploration’s Wembley/Pipestone operations in Alberta, allowing Kelt to resume and increase gas deliveries after delays.

• This development is expected to meaningfully boost Kelt’s operational capacity and production despite a modest cut to its annual guidance due to earlier setbacks.

• We’ll explore how the restart and expansion of Kelt’s gas deliveries could influence the company’s investment narrative going forward.

Find companies with promising cash flow potential yet trading below their fair value.

For anyone considering Kelt Exploration today, the big picture centers on whether the company can effectively capitalize on its expanding operational capabilities and recover from project delays, now partially resolved with the Albright Gas Plant officially online. Previously, the main short-term catalysts revolved around achieving ambitious production targets in 2025 and translating those into higher revenues and improved margins, despite rising costs and some early-year guidance reductions following plant setbacks. The recent start-up marks a meaningful shift: Kelt can now ramp up gas deliveries, potentially accelerating production growth in the Wembley/Pipestone region and strengthening its competitive position. However, the uptick in share price since the announcement suggests much of the optimism could already be reflected in the valuation, especially since Kelt is trading at a significant premium to peers by earnings multiples. The major risks now tilt toward execution, ensuring reliable plant performance and being able to meet raised expectations, alongside continued sensitivity to gas market pricing and operational hiccups. In short, optimism about Kelt’s production outlook is justified, but the margin for error has narrowed with the plant now online. On the flipside, reliable capacity at the new plant may not fully offset potential volatility in gas prices, something investors should watch closely.

Kelt Exploration’s shares are on the way up, but could they be overextended? Uncover how much higher they are than fair value.

Simply Wall St Community fair value estimates for Kelt Exploration range widely from CA$9.33 to CA$12.18 across just two separate viewpoints, underscoring varying opinions about the company’s future. With key production risks shifting now that the new plant is operational, the diversity of opinions reminds you to consider both upside potential and possible downside scenarios before forming your own outlook.

Explore 2 other fair value estimates on Kelt Exploration – why the stock might be worth just CA$9.33!

Disagree with this assessment? Create your own narrative in under 3 minutes – extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Kelt Exploration research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.

• Our free Kelt Exploration research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual – the Snowflake – making it easy to evaluate Kelt Exploration’s overall financial health at a glance.

Early movers are already taking notice. See the stocks they’re targeting before they’ve flown the coop:

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include KEL.TO.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

Google will begin including “prediction market” odds from the online betting platforms Kalshi and Polymarket into its Google Finance tools, the company said late Thursday.

The move would potentially put the platforms in front of millions of Americans who use Google, as the companies behind them face legal scrutiny in several major markets.

Polymarket and Kalshi insist that the wagers placed through their platforms are merely “event contracts” between private parties that should be regulated like commodities — not traditional gambling subject to state regulations.

That distinction has failed to convince many federal lawmakers and state attorneys general, however, who claim the companies “package sports betting as events contracts.”

Google said the integration of “event contract” sites will allow its users to “ask questions about future market events and harness the wisdom of the crowds.”

“Just ask something like ‘What will GDP growth be for 2025?’ directly from the search box to see current probabilities in the market and how they’ve changed over time,” the company said in a blog post.

It was unclear from Google’s announcement whether the prediction widgets would click through directly to Kalshi’s and Polymarket’s websites.

Representatives for Kalshi, Polymarket and Google did not reply to questions about how the deal will work.

But the “predictions” on both of these websites represent the aggregate of bets that users place on the outcome of whatever event is at issue — everything from financial results and election outcomes to movie award nominees and sports games.

Both companies currently operate within a patchwork of laws and regulations around the world that frequently put them in legal gray areas.

“By claiming to be federally regulated … issuers of sports event contracts can avoid myriad state [gaming] laws, including licensing and background investigations, minimum age requirements, federal anti-money laundering rules, and consumer protections such as addiction warnings and integrity monitoring,” six U.S. senators wrote in a Sept. 30 letter to federal regulators about sites like Kalshi and Polymarket.

Currently, U.S.-based individuals are barred from placing active bets on Polymarket and are instead restricted to a “view-only” mode on the site. But that is expected to change in the coming weeks, as Polymarket rolls out U.S. betting services.

Residents of Australia and France are also restricted in the kind of active betting they can do on Polymarket.

Kalshi is slightly different. Regulated in the United States by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Kalshi argues in court that it is permitted to operate in all 50 states, even ones that explicitly prohibit sports betting.

State attorneys general and anti-gambling groups in multiple states have brought legal actions against Kalshi that are moving through the courts. The outcome of these cases could determine the company’s access to U.S. markets in the future.

Along with legal questions, Polymarket has also faced allegations that its betting-based prediction system is vulnerable to market manipulation — and that the very existence of prediction markets could jeopardize the integrity of events, in particular of elections.

“Conduct designed to artificially affect the electoral process could manipulate the market and incentivize the spread of misinformation,” the Biden-era CFTC wrote in an appeal of an earlier lower-court ruling in favor of Kalshi.

On Thursday, a group of researchers at Columbia Business School’s Decision Risk and Operations division published a paper that found that as much as 25% of trading volume on Polymarket may be artificially inflated by some users rapidly buying and selling contracts to themselves.

The sites have also faced criticism over how they determine whether a given event has taken place.