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  • Australia accused of not acting on 2023 warnings Iran was harassing and surveilling diaspora | Australian foreign policy

    Australia accused of not acting on 2023 warnings Iran was harassing and surveilling diaspora | Australian foreign policy

    Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has been infiltrating Australia over years to surveil and harass members of the Iranian-Australian community, critics of the Tehran regime have consistently told the Australian government.

    Hundreds of Iranian-Australians made submissions to a Senate inquiry three years ago saying embassy officials and Revolutionary Guards were monitoring, intimidating and threatening members of the diaspora and begging the government to proscribe the IRGC.

    The Coalition lashed Labor for not listing the IRCG as a terrorist organisation in 2023 and said it was ready to vote to do so today. In question time on Wednesday, the opposition leader, Sussan Ley, challenged Anthony Albanese over why he did not act sooner “when the warnings were so clear and the risks so grave”.

    The shadow home affairs minister, Andrew Hastie, conceded though that while he had been “keen” to list the IRCG when he was chair of the intelligence committee before the 2022 election, there were mixed views within the Coalition government at the time.

    On Tuesday, Asio said it had credible evidence that IRGC commanders were ultimately behind at least two – but likely more – antisemitic attacks in Australia last year: arson attacks on the Adass Israel synagogue in Melbourne and the Lewis’ Continental Kitchen kosher restaurant in Sydney. In response, the federal government expelled the Iranian ambassador and said it would legislate to proscribe the IRGC as a terrorist organisation.

    There was no accusation current Iranian diplomats or embassy staff were involved.

    Australia expels Iranian ambassador over evidence Iran directed antisemitic attacks – video

    Dr Kylie Moore-Gilbert, a British-Australian academic who had been held for 804 days by the IRGC, most of it in Tehran’s notorious Evin prison, told the Guardian that diaspora members lived their lives in Australia for years “looking over their shoulders”.

    “We know that there are a number of agents of the IRGC and of the Iranian regime here in Australia, as well as sympathisers and informants, people who might not be paid, trained agents, but who are feeding information back to Tehran on the Iranian-Australian community.”

    Moore-Gilbert said agents were monitoring dissidents and refugees who have been critical of the Iranian government, and were also watching and filming people taking part in protests.

    “I’ve experienced it,” Moore-Gilbert said, “and I know so many Iranian-Australians who have so many stories about threatening behaviour and being surveilled and followed.”

    After the death of 22-year-old Kurdish woman Mahsa (Jina) Amini at the hands of Iran’s “morality police” in 2022 and the resulting worldwide protest movement, Woman Life Freedom, a Senate inquiry heard evidence of widespread surveillance and intimidation by the Iranian regime on Australian soil.

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    The Senate inquiry received more than 1,100 submissions, hundreds of which had to be put on the record anonymously, citing fear of reprisals.

    One submitter said embassy officials were “likely to be involved in infiltration, intimidation and harassment of Australian residents or citizens, and acts of terrorism”.

    “These individuals, under diplomatic cover, pose a threat to our security. Embassy personnel filmed protesters … in Australia during demonstrations, intimidated and harassed Australian citizens here, or their families in Iran.

    “In one case, the consular sector of the Iranian embassy in Canberra denied providing service to an Iranian-Australian and threatened him about the consequences he would face for participating in the demonstrations in Canberra.”

    Setareh Vaziri cited the case of one Iranian-Australian woman who “upon voicing opposition to the Iranian regime was faced with anonymous threatening text messages, and whose family – still in Iran – were threatened with violence if she did not remain ‘silent’.”

    Vaziri gave evidence to the committee that Iranian-Australians critical of the Tehran government had had their emails hacked and their social media accounts duplicated “to manipulate the work of activists”.

    Dr Behzad Molavi told the committee: “The Islamic Republic of Iran regime has planted informants, apologists and infiltrators from among their family members, cronies and affiliates in Australia who are mostly active in the ‘cultural and religious centres’ or at the universities and scholarly institutes.

    “They play a major role in harassing, intimidating and silencing dissenting voices of dual nationals.”

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    The Department of Home Affairs gave evidence to the committee it was “aware of reports that pro-Iranian government informants are surveilling former Iranian residents protesting against the regime in Australia and threatening their relatives in Iran as a result”.

    Sara Zahedi, a lawyer and member of Woman Life Freedom Australia, told the committee members of the Iranian-Australian community had consistently reported incidents of harassment and intimidation.

    “What we would really like to see is these concerns being taken a little bit more seriously by the AFP … we’re not getting a lot of follow-up on our questions and our concerns with regard to being harassed and being watched.

    “I don’t think we should be waiting for incidents of violence before we see some serious action being taken.”

    The Senate committee recommended that Australia list the IRGC as a terrorist organisation and said it should be prepared to expel any diplomats who are engaged in “intimidation, threats, or monitoring of Australians”.

    Former senator and transparency advocate Rex Patrick obtained documents under freedom of information laws in January this year, showing the government sought legal advice on proscribing the IRGC in 2023 but determined that because the IRGC was a part of the Iranian state, it could not be banned under existing legislation.

    The government is now moving to proscribe the IRGC as a terror group under changes to the federal criminal code to include state-linked organisations. Drafting is already under way but the home affairs minister, Tony Burke, says the government will take the appropriate time to amend the rules for groups like the IRCG to be prescribed.

    The code defines terror groups as organisations that are directly or indirectly engaged in, preparing, planning, assisting or fostering terrorist acts.

    Challenged over the delay in listing the IRGC, Albanese told question time on Wednesday the government had acted “like adults” on the decision.

    “On these issues, we take advice from the intelligence agencies, we go through our appropriate processes, including our national security committee,” he said.

    Iran’s government finds itself further isolated after the revelations it was behind the arson attacks in Australia. But Moore-Gilbert told the Guardian that, from the perspective of the Revolutionary Guards, the attacks “have succeeded, to a certain extent, in creating division within the community in Australia and in heightening antisemitic sentiments in Australia”.

    “And they’ve been doing this elsewhere as well. It’s not that it’s restricted to just Australia. It seems to be a broader strategy to do this throughout the western world.”

    Moore-Gilbert said having spent hundreds of hours under interrogation by the Revolutionary Guard Corps, she had witnessed their virulent antisemitism.

    “It’s difficult for them to target Israel, it’s difficult for them to go into Israeli territory, but Jewish communities in western countries who are just peacefully going about their lives, they’re an easy target.”

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  • YouTube reaches short-term extension with Fox to prevent disruption – Reuters

    1. YouTube reaches short-term extension with Fox to prevent disruption  Reuters
    2. Countdown to kickoff: Your playbook for the 2025 NFL season on YouTube  YouTube Official Blog
    3. Fox Networks Could Go Dark On YouTube TV This Week Amid Carriage Dispute As NFL Season Looms  Deadline
    4. Fox Sports, YouTube TV locked in carriage dispute ahead of college football, NFL season  On3
    5. YouTube TV subscribers may lose access to Fox content, including sports, due to contract dispute  ABC News

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  • GlobalFoundries Says CHIPS Act Deal Excludes Equity Component

    GlobalFoundries Says CHIPS Act Deal Excludes Equity Component

    This article first appeared on GuruFocus.

    GlobalFoundries (GFS, Financials) said Wednesday that its funding under the U.S. CHIPS Act does not involve any equity stake, distancing itself from the government’s recent agreement with Intel.

    The clarification came from Chief Financial Officer John Hollister during the Deutsche Bank Technology Conference. Hollister said the company’s support from the U.S. government remains well intact and is being disbursed based on the completion of specific project milestones.

    The statement follows the Trump administration’s move to convert Intel’s CHIPS Act grants into a 10% equity stake, along with other aggressive moves including agreements to take 15% of China-related chip revenue from Nvidia and AMD.

    While Intel’s deal sparked concerns about state influence over corporate decisions, GlobalFoundries emphasized that its own agreement under the law is based on non-equity terms.

    GlobalFoundries is using its CHIPS funding to expand fabrication capacity and invest in emerging technologies. The company raised its long-term investment plans to $16 billion earlier this year, with $1 billion allocated to capital expenditures and another $3 billion toward R&D.

    Hollister said the current capital plan is designed to support more than a decade of growth.

    Investors should monitor how these CHIPS Act agreements evolve across the semiconductor sector, especially as Trump administration policies take further hold.

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  • Oral SERDs in Breast Cancer: Imulnestrant and Elacestrant

    Oral SERDs in Breast Cancer: Imulnestrant and Elacestrant

    Breast cancer is a common type of cancer among women, according to the National Library of Medicineaq1. Estrogen-receptor–positive (ER+) is treated with endocrine therapies; however, patients commonly develop resistance to these therapies, making treatment a challenge. A second-generation drug, selective estrogen receptor degraders (SERDs), can overcome these existing treatment limitations. Additionally, they can be administered orally, which is often more convenient and less invasive for patients with ER+ breast cancer.1 Notable oral SERDs that have demonstrated positive benefits in patients with breast cancer are imulnestrant (Eli Lilly & Co) and elacestrant (Orserdu; Stemline Therapeutics).

    Image credit: Phongsakorn | stock.adobe.com

    Imulnestrant

    Imulnestarnt is a brain-penetrant, oral SERD that delivers continuous ER inhibition, including in ESR1-mutant cancers. Because the ER is the key therapeutic target for patients with ER+, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 negative (HER2–) breast cancer, novel degraders of ER may overcome resistance to endocrine therapy in addition to providing consistent oral pharmacology and convenience of administration. Imlunestrant is undergoing investigation for advanced breast cancer and as an adjuvant treatment in early breast cancer in the phase 3 trials EMBER-3 (NCT04975308) and EMBER-4 (NCT05514054) as well as the phase 1a/1b EMBER (NCT04188548) and PIKASSO-01 (NCT05307705) trials.2

    EMBER-3 Clinical Trial

    Although imlunestrant is not yet approved by the FDA, clinical data—such as those demonstrated in the open-label, randomized phase 3 EMBER-3 clinical trial—show support for an indication in ER+/HER2– breast cancer. The trial assessed the efficacy of imlunestrant compared with the investigator’s choice of endocrine therapy, as well as the efficacy of imlunestrant with abemaciclib (Verzenio; Eli Lilly and Company) compared with imlunestrant alone.2,3

    A total of 874 patients that recurred or progressed during or after therapy with an aromatase inhibitor, administered either alone or with a CDK4/6 inhibitor, were enrolled and randomly assigned to receive imlunestrant (n = 331), standard therapy (n = 330), or imlunestrant with abemaciclib (n = 256). The trial’s primary end point was investigator-assessed progression-free survival (PFS) with imlunestrant compared with standard therapy among those with ESR1 mutations (n = 256) and among all patients, as well as with imlunestrant with abemaciclib compared with imlunestrant among all patients who had undergone concurrent randomization. Findings were published in The New England Journal of Medicine.2-4

    EMBER-3 Results

    Among the patients with ESR1 mutations, those treated with imlunestrant achieved a PFS of about 5.5 months compared with 3.8 months for those treated with standard therapy. In the overall population, the median PFS was 5.6 months with imlunestrant and 5.5 months with standard therapy (hazard ratio [HR] for progression or death: 0.87 [95% CI 0.72–1.04]; P = 0.12). When specifically evaluating PFS of imlunestrant plus abemaciclib compared with imlunestrant alone, the median PFS was 9.4 months and 5.5 months, respectively (HR: 0.57 [95% CI 0.44–0.73]; P < .001). Further, investigators also reported mean survival times of 19.4 months, 7.9 months (95% confidence interval [CI] 6.8–9.1) with imlunestrant, and 5.4 months (95% CI 4.6–6.2) with standard therapy (difference: 2.6 months [95% CI, 1.2–3.9]; < .001).2,4

    Elacestrant

    Elacestrant is the first FDA-approved SERD for patients with ESR1-mutant HR+ metastatic breast cancer who are refractory to endocrine therapy, according to speakers from a 2025 American Society of Clinical Oncology Annual Meeting presentation. Its approval, which was granted in 2023, is specifically for postmenopausal women or adult men. It is a novel SERD degrader that has previously demonstrated its positive activity in early studies, but its approval is based on findings from the phase 3 EMERALD clinical trial (NCT03778931).5,6

    EMERALD Clinical Trial

    EMERALD is a randomized, open-label phase 3 trial that enrolled patients with ER+/HER2– advanced breast cancer who had 1 to 2 lines of endocrine therapy, required pretreatment with a CDK4/6 inhibitor, and had up to 1 prior line of chemotherapy. Patients were randomly assigned to receive either elacestrant (400 mg; n = 239) or standard of care endocrine monotherapy (n = 238) once per day.6,7

    The primary end points were PFS by blinded independent central review in all patients and in those with detectable ESR1 mutations. Secondary end points included overall survival in all patients and those with detectable ESR1 mutations.6,7

    EMERALD Results

    The investigators detected ESR1 mutation in approximately 47.8% of patients. Additionally, 43.4% of the patient population had received 2 prior endocrine therapies.7

    PFS was shown to be prolonged in all patients (HR: 0.70 [95% CI 0.55–0.88]; P = .002) and patients with an ESR1 mutation (HR: 0.55 [95% CI 0.39–0.77]; P = .0005). Treatment-related grades 3 and 4 adverse events (AEs) occurred in about 7.2% and 3.1% of patients receiving elacestrant and standard of care, respectively. Treatment-related AEs that led to treatment discontinuations were more common in the elacestrant treatment group (3.4%) compared with the standard of care group (0.9%). Nausea of any grade occurred in 35.0% of those treated with elacestrant and 18.8% treated with standard of care (grade 3 or 4: 2.5% and 0.9%, respectively).7

    Imlunestrant and Elacestrant in Clinical Practice

    The EMBER-3 findings support the potential of imlunestrant—particularly in combination with abemaciclib—as a promising treatment strategy for patients with ER+/HER2– advanced breast cancer who have experienced disease progression on prior endocrine therapy. However, continued investigation and regulatory review will further the way for this new therapeutic option for this high-need population.

    Additionally, elacestrant is a SERD that demonstrates a significant PFS improvement compared with the standard of care both in the overall population of patients and in those with ESR1 mutations. It has also demonstrated manageable safety in a phase 3 trial for patients with ER+/HER2– advanced breast cancer.4,7

    Pharmacists can remain vigilant as data on imlunestant and elacestrant continues to update by staying up to date on ongoing clinical trials and their findings. Additionally, pharmacists can collaborate with other health care professionals in the implementation of these SERDs in clinical practice. Most importantly, pharmacists are a valuable source of information for patients on these treatments, educating them on the differences, AEs, and proper dosing.

    REFERENCES
    1. Neupane N, Bawek S, Gurusinghe S, et al. Oral SERD, a Novel Endocrine Therapy for Estrogen Receptor-Positive Breast Cancer. Cancers (Basel). 2024;16(3):619. doi:10.3390/cancers16030619
    2. Gerlach A. Imlunestrant Plus Abemaciclib Improves Progression-Free Survival in Patients With ER+, HER2- Advanced Breast Cancer. Pharmacy Times. April 14, 2025. Accessed August 27, 2025. https://www.pharmacytimes.com/view/imlunestrant-plus-abemaciclib-improves-progression-free-survival-in-patients-with-er-her2–advanced-breast-cancer
    3. A Study of Imlunestrant, Investigator’s Choice of Endocrine Therapy, and Imlunestrant Plus Abemaciclib in Participants With ER+, HER2- Advanced Breast Cancer (EMBER-3). ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT04975308. Updated July 11, 2025. Accessed August 27, 2025. https://www.clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT04975308
    4. Jhaveri K, Neven P, Casalnuovo M, et al. Imlunestrant with or without abemaciclib in advanced breast cancer. New J Engl Med. December 11, 2024. doi:10.1056/NEJMoa2410858
    5. Gerlach A. ESR1, PIK3CA, and Beyond: Precision Therapy Advances in HR+ Breast Cancer. Pharmacy Times. May 30, 2025. Accessed August 27, 2025. https://www.pharmacytimes.com/view/esr1-pik3ca-and-beyond-precision-therapy-advances-in-hr-breast-cancer
    6. Phase 3 Trial of Elacestrant vs. Standard of Care for the Treatment of Patients With ER+/​HER2- Advanced Breast Cancer (EMERALD). ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT03778931. Updated October 30, 2024. Accessed August 27, 2025. https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT03778931
    7. Bidard FC, Kaklamani VG, Neven P, et al. Elacestrant (oral selective estrogen receptor degrader) Versus Standard Endocrine Therapy for Estrogen Receptor-Positive, Human Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor 2-Negative Advanced Breast Cancer: Results From the Randomized Phase III EMERALD Trial. J Clin Oncol. 2022;40(28):3246-3256. doi:10.1200/JCO.22.00338

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  • NASA seeks volunteers to track Artemis II space mission

    NASA seeks volunteers to track Artemis II space mission

    The Launch Vehicle Stage Adapter (LVSA) seen in March rolling from the Vehicle Assembly Building at the Kennedy Space Center in Florida. The adapter will be placed onto the Space Launch System Core Booster for Artemis II, NASA’s first crewed moon mission. On Wednesday, NASA put out a public ask seeking interested volunteers to help track its space mission. File Photo by Joe Marino/UPI | License Photo

    Aug. 27 (UPI) — NASA said it’s seeking volunteers to help track its Artemis II Orion spacecraft as the crewed mission travels to the moon and back.

    “By offering this opportunity to the broader aerospace community, we can identify available tracking capabilities outside the government,” Kevin Coggins, NASA’s deputy associate administrator for SCaN at NASA headquarters in Washington, said in a statement.

    NASA will send astronauts to explore the moon via Artemis for scientific discovery, economic benefits and ultimately to build the foundation for the first crewed missions to Mars, according to the nation’s space agency.

    The Artemis II test flight will be a space launch of the agency’s Space Launch System rocket and Orion spacecraft targeted for no later than April 2026.

    It will send NASA astronauts Reid Wiseman, Victor Glover and Christina Koch on an approximately 10-day mission around the moon along with their colleague from the Canadian Space Agency, astronaut Jeremy Hansen.

    On Wednesday, Coggins added that data NASA receives will help “inform our transition to a commercial-first approach, ultimately strengthening the infrastructure needed to support Artemis missions and our long-term moon to Mars objectives.”

    NASA officials added that the chance to further expand its collaboration with the public in this way builds on a past request by NASA’s Space Communication and Navigation Program.

    According to NASA, in 2022 about 10 volunteers successfully tracked an uncrewed Orion spacecraft on its orbital journey thousands of miles beyond the moon and then back to home to Earth.

    The public request for volunteers to aid in the Artemis mission arrived after NASA this month unveiled its last piece of hardware for the Artemis II Orion mission.

    Meanwhile, volunteer respondents are due by 5 p.m. EDT on Monday, Oct. 27.

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  • 2025/26 Champions League: Who qualified for the league phase? – UEFA.com

    1. 2025/26 Champions League: Who qualified for the league phase?  UEFA.com
    2. When is the Champions League draw for 2025-26?  ESPN India
    3. Champions League draw simulated as Arsenal face NIGHTMARE league phase including Real Madrid and Inter Milan  The Sun
    4. Last teams through to the Champions League group stage 🔥  Yahoo Sports
    5. Ranking Chelsea’s potential Champions League pot one opponents with Enzo Maresca hoping to avoid nightmare draw  The Chelsea Chronicle

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  • 30-Year-Old Climate Predictions Were Shockingly Accurate, Study Finds

    30-Year-Old Climate Predictions Were Shockingly Accurate, Study Finds

    Icebergs in Disko Bay (West Greenland) discharged by the Jakobshavn Isbrae, one of the fastest moving outlet glaciers in the world. Mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet has contributed nearly 2 cm (three quarters of an inch) to global sea-level rise over the past three decades. Credit: Torbjörn Törnqvist/Tulane University

    Satellites confirm that mid-1990s climate projections of sea-level rise were largely accurate, though ice melt was underestimated.

    For more than three decades, satellites have tracked global sea-level change, and a recent analysis shows that projections made in the mid-1990s were strikingly accurate. The findings, published in Earth’s Future, an open-access journal of the American Geophysical Union, come from two researchers at Tulane University.

    “The ultimate test of climate projections is to compare them with what has played out since they were made, but this requires patience – it takes decades of observations,” said lead author Torbjörn Törnqvist, Vokes Geology Professor in the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences.

    “We were quite amazed how good those early projections were, especially when you think about how crude the models were back then, compared to what is available now,” Törnqvist said. “For anyone who questions the role of humans in changing our climate, here is some of the best proof that we have understood for decades what is really happening, and that we can make credible projections.”

    Co-author Sönke Dangendorf, David and Jane Flowerree Associate Professor in the Department of River-Coastal Science and Engineering, added that while the accuracy of those earlier models is encouraging, the priority today is to refine global data into localized forecasts that can guide planning in vulnerable regions such as south Louisiana.

    Regional Variability in Sea-Level Rise

    “Sea level doesn’t rise uniformly – it varies widely. Our recent study of this regional variability and the processes behind it relies heavily on data from NASA’s satellite missions and NOAA’s ocean monitoring programs,” he said. “Continuing these efforts is more important than ever, and essential for informed decision-making to benefit the people living along the coast.”

    A new era of monitoring global sea-level change took off when satellites were launched in the early 1990s to measure the height of the ocean surface. This showed that the rate of global sea-level rise since that time has averaged about one eighth of an inch per year. Only more recently, it became possible to detect that the rate of global sea-level rise is accelerating.

    When NASA researchers demonstrated in October 2024 that the rate has doubled during this 30-year period, the time was right to compare this finding with projections that were made during the mid-1990s, independent of the satellite measurements.

    Comparing Projections and Reality

    In 1996, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change published an assessment report soon after the satellite-based sea-level measurements had started. It projected that the most likely amount of global sea-level rise over the next 30 years would be almost 8 cm (three inches), remarkably close to the 9 cm that has occurred. But it also underestimated the role of melting ice sheets by more than 2 cm (about one inch).

    At the time, little was known about the role of warming ocean waters and how that could destabilize the marine sectors of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from below. Ice flow from the Greenland Ice Sheet into the ocean has also been faster than foreseen.

    The past difficulties of predicting the behavior of ice sheets also contain a message for the future. Current projections of future sea-level rise consider the possibility, albeit uncertain and of low likelihood, of catastrophic ice-sheet collapse before the end of this century. Low-lying coastal regions in the United States would be particularly affected if such a collapse occurs in Antarctica.

    Reference: “Evaluating IPCC Projections of Global Sea-Level Change From the Pre-Satellite Era” by Torbjörn E. Törnqvist, Clinton P. Conrad, Sönke Dangendorf and Benjamin D. Hamlington, 22 August 2025, Earth’s Future.
    DOI: 10.1029/2025EF006533

    The paper was co-authored by colleagues from the University of Oslo and NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory at Caltech.

    Never miss a breakthrough: Join the SciTechDaily newsletter.

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  • French political crisis carries steep economic risk, business leaders say – Reuters

    1. French political crisis carries steep economic risk, business leaders say  Reuters
    2. France on the brink: how a budget deficit became a political crisis  The Guardian
    3. France’s PM puts government on line with call for confidence vote  Dawn
    4. Poll shows majority of French people want parliament dissolved and new election  trtworld.com
    5. CAC40, DAX Forecast: Two trades to watch  FOREX.com

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  • Partial Heart Transplant Shows Promise in Congenital Heart Disease – MedPage Today

    1. Partial Heart Transplant Shows Promise in Congenital Heart Disease  MedPage Today
    2. Doctors Find Early Success With Partial Heart Transplants  The New York Times
    3. Transplanting Heart Valves Effective Option for Congenital Heart Disease  Inside Precision Medicine
    4. Living heart valves may help treat many heart conditions in kids  futurity.org

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  • The Fed’s Unprecedented Trial as Major Policy Decision Looms

    The Fed’s Unprecedented Trial as Major Policy Decision Looms

    Roger W. Ferguson Jr. is the Steven A. Tananbaum Distinguished Fellow for International Economics at the Council on Foreign Relations. Maximilian Hippold is a research associate for international economics at CFR.

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    Earlier this week, President Donald Trump moved to fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, accusing her of mortgage fraud. Cook refused to accept the dismissal and instead filed a lawsuit to challenge the move.

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    This is an unprecedented development in the history of the Federal Reserve and many aspects of the case remain unclear. First, the administration has only alleged that Cook made false statements on her personal mortgage applications. It is not clear that the Department of Justice will bring formal fraud charges and, if so, whether Cook will be found guilty. Second, even if guilt were to be established, actions taken as a private citizen may not be sufficient cause for removal. In May, the U.S. Supreme Court indicated that the president may dismiss Federal Reserve Board members only “for cause.” Whether the allegations of mortgage fraud meet that threshold will likely be decided in court—and could ultimately reach the Supreme Court. Legal experts, meanwhile, have expressed skepticism about the administration’s position and questioned whether the president’s justification is sufficient to establish cause.

    The president’s efforts to remove Cook and his sustained public pressure on Fed Chair Jerome Powell risk undermining the bank’s independence—a cornerstone of U.S. economic stability. The move has heightened tensions ahead of a critical interest rate decision in September.

    A pivotal moment for U.S. central banking 

    The attempted dismissal of Cook marks the latest escalation in a broader campaign of public pressure on the Federal Reserve during Trump’s second term. The overarching concern is that the Trump administration sets a dangerous precedent that could harm the independence of the Federal Reserve and may have already done so. Eroding trust in the central bank’s autonomy has implications far beyond any single administration. It threatens the role of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency and the ability of the United States to service the national debt. Ultimately, it could harm the Federal Reserve’s ability to conduct independent monetary policy.

    More From Our Experts

    History shows that political interference in monetary policy has triggered severe economic crises in numerous countries, most recently Turkey. Starting in 2019, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan installed his allies at the central bank that would support his unorthodox views on monetary policy. As a result, inflation skyrocketed, reaching 75 percent at its peak in May 2024.

    An independent Federal Reserve is the cornerstone of a stable bond market and a healthy economy. As we argued in a recent article, safeguarding that independence is critical to the stability of the dollar and the entire U.S. financial system.

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    Federal Reserve

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    A critical juncture in the Fed’s monetary policy

    The political turmoil at the Federal Reserve coincides with important interest rate decisions at the upcoming meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in September. The FOMC faces a complicated economic landscape with high levels of uncertainty. Because of its dual mandate, the Fed must weigh concerns about both inflation and the labor market.

    Contrary to many expectations, Trump’s tariff policies have not yet produced a surge in inflation. However, inflation remains above the Fed’s 2 percent target at 2.7 percent, while core inflation—excluding volatile food and energy components—remains elevated at 3.1 percent. The risk of higher inflation still looms: the effects of tariffs on consumer prices will likely materialize over the upcoming months as businesses start adjusting to the new environment and pass costs onto consumers. Even if taken together they only represent a one-time increase in price levels.  Trade agreements with Canada, China, and Mexico—the United States’ most important trading partners—remain unsigned. Adding to the uncertainty, Trump tends to use tariffs as political leverage, frequently calling them on and off. Most recently, he threatened additional tariffs on imported furniture, a move that could raise costs for U.S. consumers.

    Recent downward revisions to job growth over the past three months suggest the labor market may be starting to cool. Updated data released in July [PDF] showed that the economy added 258,000 fewer jobs in May and June and hiring slowed to 73,000 jobs in July. Unemployment, however, remains low at 4.2 percent, which is roughly consistent with full employment. The administration’s crackdown on immigration may also be constraining labor supply, further complicating the outlook.

    The Fed’s dilemma is clear: cutting rates while inflation is above target and tariff risks persist could stoke price pressures. Delaying action risks falling short on the “full employment” side of its mandate if the labor market is indeed weakening. Powell has hinted at a possible rate cut in September, and markets have rallied in anticipation. Incoming data ahead of the next FOMC meeting may provide a clear picture of which direction the economy is heading. At this stage, the most likely scenario is a single, “hawkish” cut, followed by a pause to assess incoming data for the remainder of the year.

    Institutional integrity in an era of uncertainty

    Cook’s lawsuit is making its way through the courts, and it is unlikely to have any immediate impact on the Federal Reserve’s upcoming monetary policy decision in September. The Fed has stated it will comply with any judicial rulings related to the case, thereby insulating itself from accusations of obstructing presidential directives.

    Yet, in a moment of heightened economic uncertainty and ahead of pivotal policy decisions, the Fed finds itself increasingly entangled in political dynamics. Trump’s move against Cook and mounting pressure on Powell threaten to erode the institution’s independence. Safeguarding its integrity is vital not only for sound monetary policymaking but also for maintaining the dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency in an increasingly volatile global environment.

    This work represents the views and opinions solely of the authors. The Council on Foreign Relations is an independent, nonpartisan membership organization, think tank, and publisher, and takes no institutional positions on matters of policy

    Austin Steinhart created the graphics for this article.

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