WIMBLEDON — The opening two days of Wimbledon weren’t just marked by record-setting temperatures. As the All England Club melted in 35-degree heat, a slew of seeds wilted in their first-round matches.
Wimbledon: Scores | Order of play | Draws
Across both draws, an Open Era record of eight Top 10 seeds — four WTA and four ATP — fell in their first-round matches. It’s also the first time in the Open Era that two of the WTA’s Top 3 seeds lost their openers, with Coco Gauff exiting to Dayana Yastremska and Jessica Pegula lasting just 58 minutes against Elisabetta Cocciaretto.
To add to the unpredictability, four of this year’s six grass-court champions also lost in the first round of Wimbledon. An arduous clay-court swing may have meant some players hadn’t adjusted to grass yet, but even affinity and form on the surface was no guarantee of advancing.
What are the ramifications for the draw? Who’s gone, and who could take advantage? We break it down below.
First quarter
Out: [9] Paula Badosa, [32] McCartney Kessler (Nottingham champion)
The top quarter largely survived the upset bug unscathed. Badosa, the highest-ranked player to exit, came into Wimbledon under an injury cloud, and fell to two-time grass-court titlist and home hope Katie Boulter. Kessler fell to former Wimbledon winner Marketa Vondrousova, who claimed the Berlin title two weeks ago, in a first-round contest between two of this year’s grass-court champions.
Result? The quarter was stacked to start with, and seems even more so now.
Two reigning major champions, No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka and No. 6 Madison Keys, both survived tricky first rounds, though Keys only just got by Elena-Gabriela Ruse 6-7(4), 7-5, 7-5. Two of this year’s grass-court titlists won their openers, and both are in Sabalenka’s section — Vondrousova and ‘s-Hertogenbosch champion Elise Mertens, the No. 24 seed. Two more former Wimbledon semifinalists are in this quarter, too — No. 14 Elina Svitolina and No. 22 Donna Vekic. And in addition to all the above, 2021 US Open champion Emma Raducanu — who plays Vondrousova on Wednesday — and 2021 US Open finalist Leylah Fernandez could be dangerous too.
Second quarter
Out: [5] Zheng Qinwen, [20] Jelena Ostapenko, Ons Jabeur (two-time Wimbledon finalist)
The second quarter’s upsets had been on the cards. Zheng, who has never gone beyond the third round at SW19, fell in the first round for a second straight year to Katerina Siniakova, an opponent who has now beaten her in three out of three grass-court meetings. Ostapenko came into Wimbledon under an injury cloud after turning her ankle in Eastbourne, and fell to home hope Sonay Kartal. Jabeur was forced to retire against Viktoriya Tomova due to breathing difficulties.
No. 4 seed and last year’s runner-up Jasmine Paolini — who had to come from a set and a break down to survive Anastasija Sevastova — is the only player remaining in this quarter who has previously made a Wimbledon semifinal. Should the Italian falter, two big hitters in her sixteenth with deep grass-court runs under their belts this year could take advantage: No. 13 Amanda Anisimova (Queen’s runner-up and 2022 Wimbledon quarterfinalist) and No. 30 Linda Noskova (Bad Homburg semifinalist).
There’s real opportunity in Zheng’s sixteenth now. No. 12 seed Diana Shnaider is the highest-ranked player who has yet to make a Slam quarterfinal, and she’s now the favorite by ranking to do so here. Indeed, the only player in this section who has previously made the last eight at Wimbledon is Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, the 2016 quarterfinalist. All eyes will also be on four-time major champion Naomi Osaka, the only player remaining in this section who has been ranked in the Top 10. Osaka has yet to make the second week at Wimbledon in four previous main-draw appearances.
Could Siniakova or Kartal ride their opening upsets to a deep run? For doubles No. 1 Siniakova, a major singles quarterfinal feels overdue on her resume. The Czech has only made the fourth round of a Slam once, at Roland Garros 2019 — and she did so by defeating then-World No. 1 Osaka, her next opponent at Wimbledon this week.
Third quarter
Out: [3] Jessica Pegula (Bad Homburg champion), [15] Karolina Muchova, [25] Magdalena Frech, [27] Magda Linette, Tatjana Maria (Queen’s champion), Petra Kvitova (two-time Wimbledon champion)
A new Wimbledon quarterfinalist is guaranteed following the losses of Pegula (to Elisabetta Cocciaretto), Muchova (to Wang Xinyu) and Maria (to Katie Volynets). The only player remaining in this sixteenth who has made any major quarterfinal before is Belinda Bencic, who has done so three times at the US Open (including a semifinal run in 2019). Bencic’s first-round win over Alycia Parks was her first since returning from an arm injury that forced her to miss Roland Garros.
Also primed to take advantage is Wang, who defeated Coco Gauff en route to her first WTA final in Berlin and who continued her strong form to take out Muchova. The Chinese 23-year-old is the highest-ranked unseeded player in the draw at No. 32, and reached the fourth round of Wimbledon last year. She next faces Zeynep Sonmez, the first Turkish woman to win a match at Wimbledon in the Open Era.
Meanwhile, No. 18 seed Ekaterina Alexandrova is the second-highest ranked player who has yet to reach a major quarterfinal (following Shnaider). The 30-year-old’s grass-court credentials are solid — she’s a two-time titlist in ‘s-Hertogenbosch and made the fourth round of Wimbledon last year for the first time. A potential third-round showdown between Wang and Alexandrova could be crucial.
Cocciaretto, Pegula’s conqueror, is also back in form after struggles with pneumonia set her back last year. The Italian says grass is her favorite surface, and was a semifinalist in ‘s-Hertogenbosch three weeks ago.
Three top names survived the upsets in this quarter. No. 7 Mirra Andreeva is looking to rebound after a disappointing Roland Garros quarterfinal loss to Lois Boisson; No. 10 Emma Navarro and No. 17 Barbora Krejcikova both came through tricky openers against Kvitova and Eastbourne finalist Alexandra Eala respectively. Defending champion Krejcikova is the only player in this quarter who has previously made a Wimbledon semifinal, and she’s on course to face Navarro in the third round.
An unexpected danger in this section is teenage Canadian sensation Victoria Mboko. A last-minute lucky loser to replace Anastasia Potapova, the 18-year-old took advantage to upset Frech for her first career Top 30 win. Mboko could face Andreeva in the third round.
Fourth quarter
Out: [2] Coco Gauff, [26] Marta Kostyuk, Maya Joint (Eastbourne champion), Victoria Azarenka (two-time Wimbledon semifinalist)
Only one player remaining in the fourth quarter has previously made a Wimbledon semifinal — 2022 champion Elena Rybakina. Only two more have been to the last eight at SW19 before — No. 8 Iga Swiatek (2023) and No. 16 Daria Kasatkina (2016).
Former World No. 1 Swiatek, who reached her first career grass-court final in Bad Homburg last week, remains on course for a fourth-round meeting with Rybakina. The pair have not played on grass before; Swiatek leads the head-to-head 5-4, including an escape from 6-1, 2-0 down at Roland Garros last month.
Opportunity abounds at the very bottom of the draw. Kasatkina, who won her first grass-court title at Eastbourne 2024, will be looking to return to a major quarterfinal for the first time since Roland Garros 2022. She could face big-hitting No. 19 seed Liudmila Samsonova, a two-time grass-court titlist, in the third round. Samsonova, who defeated Joint in straight sets in her opener, is the third-highest ranked player who has yet to reach the last eight of a Slam, following Shnaider and Alexandrova. The 26-year-old has four last-16 showings under her belt, including at Wimbledon 2021.
2024 Australian Open semifinalist Yastremska will have her eye on inheriting Gauff’s seeding advantage after out-hitting the No. 2 seed in straight sets. The Ukrainian was a finalist in Nottingham two weeks ago, made the Wimbledon fourth round on her debut in 2019 and has a first-strike game tailor-made for fast courts. No. 28 seed Sofia Kenin will pose a threat, too. The 2020 Australian Open champion is seeking to return to the second week of a major for the first time since Roland Garros 2021.
