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By Christine Idzelis

The S&P 500 is down in November as the U.S. government shutdown persists

It’s been a rough start to November for the U.S. stock market.

The U.S. stock market is off to its worst start to a month since April as investors grapple with the longest U.S. government shutdown in history, among other worries.

“If the shutdown extends much longer,” going beyond next week and into the Thanksgiving holiday, “then I think we’ll get the full-blown correction” in the stock market, said Jamie Cox, a financial advisor and managing partner at Harris Financial Group, in a phone interview Friday. The market is now “awake to the risks” associated with a drawn-out shutdown, he said, sending a message this week that it could start hurting corporate profits.

The shutdown, which began at the start of October, is now disrupting air travel and raising concerns that it could strain consumers as the holiday season approaches, while shaving growth off the economy. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, S&P 500 SPX and Nasdaq Composite COMP all finished Friday with weekly losses – each booking their worst five-day start to a month since April, when President Donald Trump’s “liberation day” tariffs roiled markets, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

Below is more on what’s worrying the U.S. stock market at the moment.

Government shutdown

The shutdown has left investors navigating markets without the typical batch of economic reports from the U.S. government that give a fuller picture on the health of the economy.

Meanwhile, “flights are delayed, food programs are in trouble and federal workers aren’t being paid,” said Thomas Block, a Washington policy strategist at Fundstrat, in a note to the firms’ clients Friday. “There is some optimism that the shutdown can come to an end next week, but the key could be whether President Trump wants to personally engage.”

Alec Phillips, Goldman Sachs’s chief U.S. political economist, estimated in a Nov. 2 research note that if the shutdown lasts around six weeks, it could reduce quarter-on-quarter annualized real growth in gross domestic product over the final three months of 2025 by 1.15 percentage points, “primarily as a result of federal employee furloughs.”

Concerns about consumers

The University of Michigan’s consumer-sentiment index released Friday fell in November to the lowest level since the record low seen in June 2022. The preliminary reading indicated that consumer sentiment has soured more this month than Wall Street expected.

“With the federal government shutdown dragging on for over a month, consumers are now expressing worries about potential negative consequences for the economy,” Joanne Hsu, director of the University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers, said Friday on the university’s website.

“This month’s decline in sentiment was widespread throughout the population, seen across age, income and political affiliation,” she noted. “One key exception: Consumers with the largest tercile of stock holdings posted a notable 11% increase in sentiment, supported by continued strength in stock markets.”

Investors will be watching to see if consumers continue to spend during the holidays, despite feeling gloomy. Normally, investors would see monthly data from the government on U.S. retail sales next week on Nov. 14, but the shutdown has disrupted the usual economic calendar.

Labor-market worries

The U.S. stock market slumped Thursday after a report from outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas showed that layoffs soared in October. Alternative data sources such as the Challenger report are getting heightened attention from investors amid the vacuum of economic data during the shutdown. Normally, the government would have released on Friday a U.S. jobs report for October, but it wasn’t available due to the shutdown.

Stock-market valuations

Investors are worried that the enthusiasm around artificial intelligence has propelled the S&P 500 to a series of record highs this year that have left it both richly valued and extremely top-heavy.

The S&P 500 has outsize exposure to Big Tech stocks that trade at lofty multiples of earnings compared to the index. Meanwhile, the index’s information-technology sector XX:SP500.45 just had its worst week since April, ending Friday with a weekly loss of 4.2%, according to FactSet data.

Despite stumbling in November, the S&P 500 ended Friday 2.4% below its record close on Oct. 28, according to Dow Jones Market Data. A stock-market correction would entail a drop of at least 10% from a recent peak.

“Pullbacks are normal,” said Carol Schleif, chief market strategist at BMO Private Wealth, in a phone interview Friday. “They’re never comfortable, but they’re normal.”

-Christine Idzelis

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CGI Inc. (TSE:GIB.A) came out with its annual results last week, and we wanted to see how the business is performing and what industry forecasters think of the company following this report. Revenues of CA$16b were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at CA$7.35, missing estimates by 2.5%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there’s been a strong change in the company’s prospects, or if it’s business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we’ve aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on CGI after the latest results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from CGI’s 13 analysts is for revenues of CA$16.7b in 2026. This reflects a satisfactory 5.1% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to expand 16% to CA$8.86. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CA$16.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of CA$8.77 in 2026. So it’s pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there’s been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

View our latest analysis for CGI

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at CA$157. That’s not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on CGI, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CA$185 and the most bearish at CA$137 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of CGI’shistorical trends, as the 5.1% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 is roughly in line with the 6.0% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry (in aggregate), which analyst estimates suggest will see revenues grow 12% annually. So it’s pretty clear that CGI is expected to grow slower than similar companies in the same industry.

The most obvious conclusion is that there’s been no major change in the business’ prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it’s tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that CGI’s revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at CA$157, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for CGI going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You can also see whether CGI is carrying too much debt, and whether its balance sheet is healthy, for free on our platform here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Last week, you might have seen that Cameco Corporation (TSE:CCO) released its third-quarter result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 9.7% to CA$129 in the past week. Cameco’s revenues suffered a miss, falling 18% short of forecasts, at CA$615m. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) however performed much better, reaching break-even. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company’s performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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After the latest results, the 14 analysts covering Cameco are now predicting revenues of CA$3.71b in 2026. If met, this would reflect a modest 7.1% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to shoot up 79% to CA$2.16. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CA$3.72b and earnings per share (EPS) of CA$2.38 in 2026. So it looks like there’s been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results – there’s been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

View our latest analysis for Cameco

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at CA$146, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Cameco analyst has a price target of CA$175 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CA$100.00. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Cameco shareholders.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It’s pretty clear that there is an expectation that Cameco’s revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 5.6% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 17% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 4.0% per year. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Cameco is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Cameco. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it’s tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates – from multiple Cameco analysts – going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we’ve discovered 1 warning sign for Cameco that you should be aware of.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.