Category: 3. Business

WELLINGTON, New Zealand (AP) — The head of the International Energy Agency said Monday that the global economy faces a “major, major threat” because of the Iran war.

“No country will be immune to the effects of this crisis if it continues to go in this direction,” Fatih Birol said at Australia’s National Press Club in Canberra on Monday.

The crisis in the Middle East, he said, has had a worse impact on oil than the two oil shocks of the 1970s combined, and a worse effect on gas than the Russia-Ukraine war.

Israel launched a new wave of attacks early Monday against Tehran. U.S. President Donald Trump also warned the United States will “obliterate” Iran’s power plants if Tehran doesn’t fully open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours. That prompted Iran to say it would respond to any such strike with attacks on U.S. and Israeli energy and infrastructure assets.

Trump is facing increasing pressure at home to secure the strait as oil prices soar.

One major fear is that the war could knock out oil and gas production in the Middle East for a long time, which would mean high prices could last a while and cause inflation to rip higher around the world. The U.S. stock market has a history of bouncing back relatively quickly from past conflicts in the Middle East and elsewhere, as long as oil prices don’t stay too high for too long.

Iran on Monday renewed strikes on its Gulf neighbors and threatened to start hitting their power plants.

“The situation is very severe,” Birol said in Australia.

WATCH: Trump claims U.S. and Iran are holding talks, Iran wants ‘to make a deal’

The oil crises of 1973 and 1979, he said, lost together 10 million barrels per day, causing “major economic problems around the world, the recessions. And today, only as of today, we lost 11 million barrels per day — so more than two major oil shocks put together.”

After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, he said, the gas markets, especially in Europe, “lost about 75 billion cubic meters, 75BCM. And as of now, as a result of this crisis, we lost about 140BCM, almost twice (as much).”

Birol said 40 energy assets in nine countries across the region were “severely or very severely damaged.”

“Some of the vital arteries of the global economy, such as petrochemical, such as fertilizers, such as sulfur, such as helium — their trade is all interrupted, which would have serious consequences for the global economy,” he said.

He said the International Energy Agency, “in order to comfort the markets,” earlier released 400 million barrels of oil, “which is historic. We have never released so much oil to the markets. … The single most important solution to this problem is opening up the Hormuz Strait as things stand now.”

The official added that he was consulting with governments in Europe, Asia, North America and the Middle East about the prospect of releasing further stockpiled oil.

“We will see, we will look at the markets,” he said. “If it is necessary, of course, we will do it, but we will look at the conditions, we will analyze, assess the market and discuss with our member countries.”

___

AP writer Foster Klug contributed to this report from Tokyo.

Stock markets dipped across the board early on Monday, with traders nervous after another weekend yielded no real signs of deescalation in Iran or the wider Gulf region or a reduction in the rising energy prices the conflict is causing.

Several of the major Asian markets dipped by 3% or more, while Europe’s main indices all shed in the region of 2% in morning trading. Government bond yields were up and even the traditional safe havens gold and silver shed more than 6% and 7% of their values. 

However, an apparent change in tone from US President Donald Trump as he woke in the US prompted a rally on European markets and a positive start to trading in the US.

Where did key stocks and prices stand early on Monday? 

Asia’s markets had a torrid time, closing for business before Trump began to tout supposed bilateral talks with Iran that Tehran is yet to confirm took place. This was the abridged story of the morning’s trade:

• Germany’s DAX dipped during the morning, and was down by just over 2% as of midday local time
• France’s CAC 40 was also roughly 2% down, while the FTSE 100 in London logged similar numbers until a small spike recouped much of the losses late in the morning
• Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 closed down 3.5% at 51,515.49, having dipped lower still in the course of the day
• South Korea’s Kospi nosedived by roughly 6.5% to 5,405.75
• Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was down 3.5%, while the Shanghai Composite shed 3.6% in a single day
• Taiwan’s Taiex shed 2.5% while Australia’s A&P/ASX 200 fared somewhat better, sliding by just 0.7%
• Gold and silver, major gainers in recent years, were both in freefall, down almost 7% and 8%, respectively
• Crude oil was one of few prices to rise, but only marginally
• Western governments’ 10-year bond yields also showed modest gains across the board

When and where did the afternoon rally take effect? 

At around midday in Europe, as Donald Trump started singing a moderately different tune to his weekend threats, the main indices jumped back into positive territory for the day and began to log cautious gains. With the close of trade approaching in Europe, and Wall Street open for business, the ever-volatile market mood had swung: 

• The DAX rebounded past 23,000 points, nearing gains of 3% for the day
• France’s CAC 40 was just over 2% in the green, and the FTSE 100 in London’s gains were more modest, but still approaching 1%
• The Dow Jones was up 2.22% by late morning in New York, and the S&P 500 was not too far behind, up 1.78%
• Gold had recovered most of its losses from the morning, while silver was even back into positive territory
• Crude oil prices tumbled by about 10%, dropping back below $90 per barrel 
• Various cryptocurrencies also moved from losses back towards gains, with the uncertainty characterized above all by a high volume of volatile, fast-moving trading

Torrid March for traders despite Monday’s rally

Germany’s DAX, like most major western markets, has fallen considerably overall throughout the month since the US and Israeli strikes on Iran that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and many other senior officials starting on February 28. 

The main German index slipped below 22,000 points early on Monday, having traded higher than 25,000 prior to the first attacks on Tehran. That’s was a peak dip of more than 12%, but it recovered to 8% before the close of trade. The market is at its lowest ebb since early April last year, in the aftermath of the panic caused by US President Donald Trump’s so-called “Liberation Day” tariffs imposed on most of the world, including Europe.

France’s CAC 40 has also shed 8% of its value in a month, despite Monday afternoon’s rally.

The UK’s FTSE 100 has fared slightly better, sliding 6.6% in a month, perhaps in part because of the UK’s own oil resources. US markets have slid more or less in line with the values seen in the UK, with the Dow Jones down about 4.76% and the S&P 500 shedding around 3.25% of its value in that period.

Strait of Hormuz still blocked, few signs regional de-esclation

Monday’s followed Trump’s weekend threat that the US would “obliterate” Iran’s power plants unless if fully opens the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, which prompted Tehran to say that it would respond to any such strikes by targeting US and Israeli energy and infrastructure assets in the region. 

Earlier on Monday, the executive director of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, also warned that the current economic instability caused by the war with Iran had the potential to prove more severe than the two oil shocks of the 1970s and the aftermath of Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine combined. 

“This crisis as things stand is now two oil crises and one gas crash put all together,” Birol said, describing the situation as a “major, major threat” to the global economy. 

The rising energy prices are also confouding investors’ hopes of likely interest rate cuts, which they previously anticipated in the course of this year, because higher fuel costs apply inflationary pressure that makes it riskier for central banks to reduce the cost of borrowing. 

Edited by: Elizabeth Schumacher

Dubai-based Seya Rahnema and Matthew Escritt of Pinsent Masons, who specialise in banking and finance, were commenting after the Board of the Central Bank of the UAE approved a package of measures which it said is “designed to reinforce the stability and resilience of the UAE banking sector in light of exceptional global and regional circumstances”.

Under this proposed package, UAE banks will be able to access up to 30% of their own cash reserves, which they are otherwise obliged to maintain under the country’s financial framework, as well as obtain short-term loans from the central bank in either UAE dirham (AED) or US dollars (USD). The banks will also benefit from temporary relief in liquidity and stable funding ratios so that they have “greater flexibility to support the UAE economy”, the central bank said. The package further provides for a relaxation of rules around capital buffers and credit risk management.

The Central Bank of the UAE said banks “should continue to provide the required financing services to support their customers and the national economy”.

Rahnema said: “The conflict is having a profound impact on people and businesses in the UAE, the wider region and on global economies. In the UAE specifically, the tourism and hospitality industries have been particularly affected by the conflict, while the evacuation or repatriation of people by foreign governments has put a strain on some workforces. The shutdown of oil and gas production and restrictions on the flow of oil and other goods through the Strait of Hormuz are generating significant knock‑on effects. Projects are facing delays and cost increases, alongside wider disruption to global supply chains. These factors are increasing the financial pressures on UAE businesses.”

“However, as the central bank itself highlighted, the UAE’s financial system has been resilient to the effects of the conflict to-date and is well-placed to remain resilient should the crisis worsen. The central bank’s measures are preventative in nature and give banks more freedom from regulatory restrictions to ensure they continue lending to businesses that may need to access capital at this time,” he said.

Escritt added: “This proactive step by the UAE’s central bank is evidence of robust leadership and has been positively received by market participants. Despite the conflict, the UAE has demonstrated continuing resilience and this timely intervention by the UAE central bank reflects a broader national strategy: to preserve financial stability, sustain economic activity, and project confidence to the world at large during a period of exceptional regional volatility.”

Good morning.

The global energy crisis caused by the war in Iran is equivalent to the combined force of the twin oil shocks of the 1970s and the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the head of the International Energy Agency has said.

Fatih Birol, the IEA’s executive director, said the growing crisis could be seriously compounded through interruptions to the “vital arteries of the global economy”, including petrochemicals, fertilisers, sulphur and helium. He said the depth of the problems had not initially been properly understood by world leaders.

Meanwhile, global stock markets dropped sharply today after Donald Trump threatened to “obliterate” Iran’s power plants unless the strait of Hormuz was opened.

• Why is the ex-CIA chief Leon Panetta in the news? He has spoken out about Donald Trump’s attack on Iran, telling the Guardian the US president is “sending a message of weakness” to the world.

• What’s the latest in Iran? Its government is threatening to lay mines across entire Gulf if its coasts are attacked.

• This is a developing story. Follow our liveblog here.

Pilot and co-pilot killed after Air Canada jet collision at LaGuardia airport

The pilot and co-pilot of an Air Canada Express regional jet have been killed after the plane collided with a fire truck while landing at New York’s LaGuardia, in an incident that closed the airport.

Other were seriously injured, with nine people in hospital. The collision happened as a firefighting vehicle was responding to a separate incident.

The CRJ-900 plane, which was operated by Air Canada’s partner Jazz Aviation, was carrying 72 passengers and four crew members from Montreal, according to a preliminary passenger list. Jazz is owned by Chorus Aviation.

• What happened? The aircraft hit the fire truck while travelling at about 24mph, according to the flight-tracking website Flightradar24. In the moments before the crash, an air traffic controller could be heard giving clearance to a fire vehicle to cross part of the runway, then trying to stop it. The controller can then be heard quickly diverting incoming aircraft from landing.

Arkansas police arrest Kendra Duggar on child abuse charges

Arkansas police have arrested Kendra Duggar, the wife of reality TV personality Joseph Duggar, on misdemeanor child abuse charges, in the latest scandal to envelop the family featured on TLC’s 19 Kids and Counting.

Kendra Duggar faces four counts each of endangering the welfare of a minor and second-degree false imprisonment, according to the Washington county sheriff’s office.

Her arrest came days after Joseph Duggar was arrested on charges in Florida. He is accused of molesting a girl when she was nine years old during a family trip to Panama City Beach.

• Why are they famous? The 19 Kids and Counting series portrayed the lives of parents Jim Bob and Michelle Duggar and their children, all of whose names began with the letter J. The show was canceled in 2015 after the Duggar’s eldest son, Joshua, faced allegations of molesting four of his sisters as a teenager. He is in prison for possessing child sexual abuse images. Joseph and Kendra Duggar were also stars of the spinoff Counting On.

In other news …

• Donald Trump’s nomination of the Republican senator Markwayne Mullin of Oklahoma to be the next head of homeland security advanced towards confirmation yesterday after the US Senate voted 54-37 to limit debate on the appointment.

• The Oscar-nominated actor Barry Keoghan has said online abuse about his appearance is affecting his life to such an extent that he now does “not want to go outside”.

• Trump’s so-called border czar, Tom Homan, confirmed that ICE agents will be sent to US airports from today to assist with security amid extremely long lines.

Stat of the day: Only 1% of excess heat is felt by humans as Earth’s energy imbalance hits record high

Our home planet is struggling with a record energy imbalance, which is heating oceans to unprecedented levels, the World Meteorological Organization has said. The rising temperature experienced by humans on the surface was only 1% of the faster-accumulating heat in the wider Earth system.

Building power: Say gay – feminist magazine reclaims Charlie Kirk-style campus tours after Florida DEI cuts

With speakers from activist organisations such as 50501, one of the groups behind the No Kings protests, Lux Magazine is on a multicity college tour in states with academic bans around race, gender and sexuality and restrictions around bodily autonomy. The magazine wants to show Black, brown, queer, feminist and trans students that they still have a safe space on campuses.

Don’t miss this: ‘In 20 years most of the world could be racist dictatorships’ – Ibram X Kendi on book bans and far-right fearmongering

How have the rich and powerful convinced so many voters that the reason they are struggling is the poor and powerless? The US historian, whose books have been banned at least 50 times by multiple US school districts, talks about the weaponising of divisiveness.

… or this: ‘There’s no ceasefire’ – Gaza paramedic and father of two killed as civilian death toll since October passes 650

Despite the supposed end of the fighting last year, casualties in the Palestinian territory continue to rise, with Abed Elrahman Hamdouna, a volunteer ambulance driver, joining the long list of those killed by Israeli forces. His death is a shocking reality-check on the large numbers of civilians that continue to die in Gaza despite the supposed end of the fighting last year.

Climate check: US weather extremes bear ‘fingerprint’ of the climate crisis, experts say

The US is experiencing a striking mix of weather extremes this March. Flooding rains in Hawaii, rare snow in Alabama, flip-flopping temperatures in the north-east and, perhaps most concerning, a severe heatwave affecting the west coast are raising questions about how strange these patterns really are and what role the climate crisis is playing.

Last Thing: Inside the strangely soothing world of fragrance TikTok

TikTok is awash in perfume-inspired image carousels that assign scent profiles to abstract concepts, many of them accompanied with a slowed-down version of Robert Miles’s Eurodance hit Children. The age of 18, for example, has a scent profile of sweat, vodka, lip gloss, musk and lace. Looking at old photos too long? That smells like paper, iris, amber, musk and cedar. The first time passing a joint includes grass, fog, smoke, lip gloss and (obviously) marijuana. The majority focus on adolescent nostalgia, but they possess such universal relatability that any generation can get in on the action, writes Eleanor Burnard.

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​Real yields represent nominal yields minus inflation expectations and when real yields rise, gold’s relative appeal diminishes.

​Dollar strength compounds pressure

​At the same time, the US dollar has strengthened, further weighing on gold prices creating additional headwind. Because gold is priced in dollars, a stronger greenback makes it more expensive for non-US investors, dampening global demand.

​The combination of higher yields and a firmer dollar is historically one of the most bearish backdrops for gold, and that relationship is playing out once again.

​Dollar strength reflects safe-haven flows, interest rate differentials and economic growth expectations.

​Interest rate expectations shift

​Another important factor is the repricing of interest rate expectations affecting forward-looking assessments. Markets have begun to scale back expectations for central bank rate cuts in 2026, particularly in the US.

​The “higher for longer” narrative on rates reduces the appeal of gold as a store of value, as investors can instead earn yield in cash or bonds without taking on price volatility.

​Profit-taking after strong rally

​Positioning has also played a role in recent weakness. Gold had rallied strongly in the preceding months, reaching or approaching record highs above $5600 per ounce. That left the market vulnerable to profit-taking, and recent price action suggests investors have been locking in gains.

​When positioning becomes crowded on the long side, even modest changes in macro expectations can trigger sharp pullbacks.

​Liquidity demands create selling pressure

​In addition, recent market volatility has created a demand for liquidity affecting multiple assets. In such environments, investors often sell liquid assets -including gold – to raise cash or meet margin calls elsewhere.

​This can lead to counterintuitive moves, where gold falls even as geopolitical risks rise, as liquidity needs override safe-haven considerations as margin calls from leveraged positions force asset sales. Gold’s liquidity makes it a convenient source for raising cash.

​Geopolitical tensions fail to support

​Indeed, one of the more notable features of the current environment is gold’s muted response to geopolitical tensions, including developments in the Middle East. Rather than flowing into gold, safe-haven demand has been directed more towards the US dollar and short-dated government bonds.

​This shift underscores how, at present, macro and liquidity dynamics are dominating traditional safe-haven behaviour with gold’s usual crisis playbook not working.

​Technical support levels tested

​From a technical perspective, gold has fallen close to its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $4092, before swiftly bouncing off it as US President Trump postponed attacks on Iranian energy sites, supposedly after “productive talks” with Iran which the country’s representatives have said never took place.

​Regardless, while the price of gold remains above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $4092, this year’s decline in the price of the precious metal may just turn out to be an Elliott Wave abc zig-zag correction with new record highs remaining in the pipeline.

​Gold daily candlestick chart 

Stock markets dipped across the board early on Monday, with traders nervous after another weekend yielded no real signs of deescalation in Iran or the wider Gulf region or a reduction in the rising energy prices the conflict is causing.

Several of the major Asian markets dipped by 3% or more, while Europe’s main indices all shed in the region of 2% in morning trading, government bond yields were up and even the traditional safe havens gold and silver shed more than 6% and 7% of their values. 

Where did key stocks and prices stand on Monday? 

Major indices were in the red almost across the board after a weekend of inactivity, with some of the key stats as follows: 

• Germany’s DAX dipped during the morning, and was down by just over 2% as of midday local time
• France’s CAC 40 was also roughly 2% down, while the FTSE 100 in London logged similar numbers until a small spike recouped much of the losses late in the morning
• Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 closed down 3.5% at 51,515.49, having dipped lower still in the course of the day
• South Korea’s Kospi nosedived by roughly 6.5% to 5,405.75
• Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was down 3.5%, while the Shanghai Composite shed 3.6% in a single day
• Taiwan’s Taiex shed 2.5% while Australia’s A&P/ASX 200 fared somewhat better, sliding by just 0.7%
• Gold and silver, major gainers in recent years, were both in freefall, down almost 7% and 8%, respectively
• Crude oil was one of few prices to rise, but only marginally
• Western governments’ 10-year bond yields also showed modest gains across the board

Germany’s DAX, like most major western markets, has been sliding rapidly throughout the month since the US and Israeli strikes on Iran that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and many other senior officials starting on February 28. 

The main German index slipped below 22,000 points on Monday, having traded higher than 25,000 prior to the first attacks on Tehran. That’s a dip of more than 12%. It’s now reached its lowest ebb since early April last year, in the aftermath of the panic caused by US President Donald Trump’s so-called “Liberation Day” tariffs imposed on most of the world, including Europe.

France’s CAC 40 has also shed 11% of its value in a month. 

The UK’s FTSE 100 has fared slightly better, sliding 6.67% in a month, perhaps in part because of the UK’s own oil resources. US markets have slid more or less in line with the values seen in the UK, with the Dow Jones down about 6.6% and the S&P 500 shedding almost 5% of its value in that period.

Strait of Hormuz still blocked, no real signs of regional de-esclation

Monday’s slide comes after Trump’s weekend threat that the US would “obliterate” Iran’s power plants unless if fully opens the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, which prompted Tehran to say that it would respond to any such strikes by targeting US and Israeli energy and infrastructure assets in the region. 

Earlier on Monday, the executive director of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, also warned that the current economic instability caused by the war with Iran had the potential to prove more severe than the two oil shocks of the 1970s and the aftermath of Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine combined. 

“This crisis as things stand is now two oil crises and one gas crash put all together,” Birol said, describing the situation as a “major, major threat” to the global economy. 

The rising energy prices are also confouding investors’ hopes of likely interest rate cuts, which they previously anticipated in the course of this year, because higher fuel costs apply inflationary pressure that makes it riskier for central banks to reduce the cost of borrowing. 

Edited by: Elizabeth Schumacher

Mainland and Hong Kong stocks plunged on Monday after Iran threatened to attack Israeli power plants and facilities supplying American bases in the Gulf if US President Donald Trump carries out his threat to “obliterate” Iran’s ⁠power network.

The benchmark Hang Seng Index plunged 894 points, or 3.54 percent, to 24,382.

The China enterprises index was down 266 points, or 3.11 percent, at 8,307 while the tech index was 159 points, or 3.28 percent, down at 4,712.

On the mainland, the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index ended down 143 points, or 3.63 percent, at 3,813.

The Shenzhen Component Index closed 520 points, or 3.76 percent, lower at 13,345 while the ChiNext Index, tracking China’s Nasdaq-style board of growth enterprises, lost 116 points, or 3.49 percent, to 3,235.

The combined turnover of the main indexes in Shanghai and Shenzhen was nearly 2.43 trillion yuan, up from 2.29 trillion yuan on Friday.

Shares related to the green power and coal sectors led gains while precious metals and tourism stocks suffered steep losses.

Japan’s stocks and bonds sank to multi-month lows, with the ⁠Nikkei slumping up to five percent earlier in the day, wiping out the gains it made this year.

The benchmark ended 1,857 points, or 3.48 percent, lower at 51,515 while the broader Topix was down almost 123 points, or 3.41 percent, at 3,486, making for the lowest close for both indexes since January 8.

In Seoul, the benchmark Kospi closed down 375 points, or 6.49 percent, at 5,405, marking its lowest level since March 9 and the biggest daily percentage loss since March 4. (Reuters/Xinhua)

Edited by Tony Sabine